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Five trends in disbursements to Sub-Saharan Africa

Peter Bourke's picture
The 2015 International Debt Statistics database contains many different indicators to help understand external debt in low-and middle-income countries. This post looks at one: disbursements, in the context of countries in Sub-Saharan Africa.
 
So what are disbursements? Disbursements are simply the amount of a loan commitment (the total amount of new loans to borrowers for which contracts were signed) that actually enter the borrower's account, in a given year. The reason I’ve decided to focus on disbursements is that this indicator offers a clear picture of developments in a given year while an indicator like external debt stock (which tell us how much a country owes its creditors – the entities that lend a country money) is a more cumulative measure as it is influenced by what happened in previous years.
 
In the analysis that follows, I’ve used 45 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, excluding South Africa. Why? Simply because the size of South Africa’s external debt would mask the trends in the rest of the region. For some perspective, consider that the biggest economy in Africa (in terms of 2013 GDP), Nigeria, had an external debt stock of 14 billion USD in 2013 while South Africa (the second biggest African economy in terms of 2013 GDP) had one of 140 billion USD in the same year – ten times more.
 
Despite this exclusion, I think it’s important to note how huge this unit of analysis is. The 45 countries that I’ve used represent almost the whole African continent, with the exception of a handful of countries in the north of the continent. Therefore, I ask you to take these trends with a grain of salt, as they are aggregate trends and therefore some of the national differences are blurred out.
 
Disbursements to the region have doubled
First, the big picture: disbursements to Sub-Saharan Africa have increased sharply in the last few years. Between 2010 and 2013 they more than doubled (increased by 121%), while in the rest of the developing world disbursements went up by 42% (see figure 1). The increase in the region is particularly strong in the case of disbursements from private creditors (entities like bond holders and commercial banks), which increased almost sixfold (489%) since 2010 (compared to a rise of 52% in the rest of the developing world). In the same period, disbursements from official creditors (governments or other bilateral/multilateral entities) grew by 35% in the region (while they fell 13% in the rest of the developing world).
 
Figure 1

Can you visualize the structure of the world economy and population in one chart?

Morgan Brannon's picture
Also available in: Français | Español | العربية
Following the International Comparison Program (ICP) 2011 final report release from last October, there was particular interest in the charts presenting the results. To give a deeper explanation of one of the most popular charts, we’ve recently produced this video:
 
Real GDP Per Capita and Shares of Global Population, ICP 2011
Source:  ICP, http://icp.worldbank.org/

New data and research help measure a decade of urban expansion across East Asia

Chandan Deuskar's picture
Also available in: Français | العربية | Español
How do you measure something when there’s no agreement on how to define an indicator?  How do you compare urban data when the word “urban” doesn’t have the same definition in every country? And what happens when cities stop counting the population that starts to spill over the municipal boundaries?
 

 

Big Data needs better questions

Elizabeth Sabet's picture

The term "big data" is much in the news lately – alternatingly touted as the next silver bullet potentially containing answers to myriad questions on natural and human dynamics, and dismissed by others as hype.  We are only beginning to discover what value exists in the vast quantities of information we have today, and how we are now capable of generating, storing, and analyzing this information. But how can we begin to extract that value?  More importantly, how can we begin to apply it to improving the human condition by promoting development and reducing poverty?
 
That is precisely the question that motivated the World Bank Group and Second Muse to collaborate on the recently released report Big Data in Action for Development. Interviews with big data practitioners around the world and an extensive review of literature on the topic led us to some surprising answers.

Which countries could be affected by plunging oil prices: a data perspective

Siddhesh Kaushik's picture
Tumbling oil prices continue to dominate the headlines. Although oil prices have started to rise earlier in the week, this issue is still of concern to many oil-exporting countries.
 


(Source: FRED Economic Data)

A recent World Bank Group feature story broke down country by country the potential regional consequences. And according to the Bank Group’s Global Economic Prospects report, the decline in oil prices will dampen growth prospects for oil-exporting countries.

There are various factors that can be used to assess the impact of falling oil prices on countries. One such factor is trade. Countries exporting mostly fuel products will lose export revenue as oil prices drop. The chart below shows the top 15 countries that exported fuel in 2012. You can visualize the data for other years and products using the World Integrated Trade Solution’s (WITS) product analysis visualization tool.

Funding The Data Revolution

Claire Melamed's picture

A revolution starts with an idea, but to become real, it has to move quickly to a practical proposition about getting stuff done.  And getting things done needs money.  If the ideas generated last year, in the report of the UN Secretary General’s Independent Expert Advisory Group and elsewhere, about how to improve data production and use are to become real, then they will need investments.  It’s time to start thinking about where the money to fund the data revolution might come from, and how it might be spent.

Getting funding for investment in data won’t be easy.  As hard-pressed statistical offices around the world know to their cost, it’s tough to persuade governments to put money into counting things instead of, say, teaching children or paying pensions.  But unless the current excitement about data turn into concrete commitments, it will all fade away once the next big thing comes along, leaving little in the way of lasting change.

Next step for the Data Revolution: financing emerging priorities

Grant Cameron's picture
Also available in: 中文

Last August, the UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon asked an Independent Expert Advisory Group (IEAG) to make concrete recommendations on bringing about a Data Revolution in sustainable development.  In response, the IEAG delivered its report, and among other items, recommends, “a new funding stream to support the Data Revolution for sustainable development should be endorsed at the Third International Conference on Financing for Development,” in Addis Ababa in July 2015.

Three Issues Papers for Consultation

To support this request and to stimulate conversation, the World Bank Group has drafted issues papers that focus on three priority areas:

  1. Data innovation
  2. Public-private partnerships for data
  3. Data literacy and promotion of data use

The papers aim to flesh out the specific development needs, as well as financing characteristics needed to support each area. A fuller understanding of these characteristics will determine what kind of financing mechanism(s) or instrument(s) could be developed to support the Data Revolution.

Debt data: how debt inflows differ among developing countries

Molly Fahey Watts's picture
Also available in: العربية | Español | Français | 中文

The World Bank Group’s International Debt Statistics (IDS) 2015 was released today. The Bank’s flagship debt data publication features 2013 data on external debt stocks and flows, as well as other major financial indicators on the 124 developing countries that report to the World Bank’s Group’s Debt Reporting System.

The major news from this year’s IDS is that net external debt flows to developing countries rose 28% in 2013, driven by a sharp 50% increase in short-term debt inflows. Additionally, foreign direct investment in emerging economies proved to be steady and resilient, bringing net capital flows (debt and equity) to $1.2 trillion.

For more detailed analysis and trends on debt statistics, take a look at IDS's debt portal featuring online tables. Here are a few highlights I thought I'd share.

Data Group launches newly revamped Statistical Capacity Indicator website

Annette Kinitz's picture

When a country’s statistical capacity improves and policy makers use accurate statistics to inform their decisions, this results in better development policy design and outcomes. In this regard, the Statistical Capacity Indicator (SCI) serves as an essential monitoring and tracking tool, as well as helps National Statistics Offices (NSOs) worldwide to address a country’s gaps in their capabilities to collect, produce, and use data.
 
The Statistical Capacity Indicator’s Global Reach
Since 2004, the SCI continues to assess the capacity of a developing country’s ability to adhere to international statistical standards and methods, whether or not its activities are in line with internationally recommend periodicity, and whether the data are available in a timely fashion.

To this end, there are 25 indicators that annually monitor and “grade” a country’s statistical capacity progress and thus form the basis for the overall SCI score calculation.
 
While NSOs are the main users of the SCI score, the World Bank Group, international development agencies, and donor countries also refer to the SCI score for their own evaluation and monitoring purposes.

New surveys reveal dynamism, challenges of open data-driven businesses in developing countries

Alla Morrison's picture

Open data for economic growth continues to create buzz in all circles.  We wrote about it ourselves on this blog site earlier in the year.  You can barely utter the phrase without somebody mentioning the McKinsey report and the $3 trillion open data market.  The Economist gave the subject credibility with its talk about a 'new goldmine.' Omidyar published a report a few months ago that made $13 trillion the new $3 trillion.  The wonderful folks at New York University's GovLab launched the OpenData500 to much fanfare.  The World Bank Group got into the act with this study.  The Shakespeare report was among the first to bring attention to open data's many possibilities. Furthermore, governments worldwide now routinely seem to insert economic growth in their policy recommendations about open data – and the list is long and growing.

Map

Geographic distribution of companies we surveyed. Here is the complete list.
 
We hope to publish a detailed report shortly but here meanwhile are a few of the regional findings in greater detail.

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