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Judging it smart, Azerbaijan’s courts go digital

Tako Kobakhidze's picture
Baku


















I was back in Baku recently, after a 9 year gap, and guess what I recognized first? Yes, those famous pounding winds – immortalized in the city’s ancient Persian name of Bādkube – or “city of winds”. But as I went about rediscovering this thriving city along the Caspian Sea, I soon realized that I would also be witness to “winds of change”.

Indeed, so much had changed here since my last visit. Most visibly, the urban skyline is now speckled with construction cranes, reflecting a city busy growing upward – its physical outline seeming to transform before my eyes. But infrastructure is just one aspect of Baku’s modern story. Beyond the hectic expansion of concrete and metal, I was also able to observe exciting changes in technology and innovation that are helping to transform an integral part of this city’s life – its judicial services!

Simulating job growth through macro models

Camilo Mondragon-Velez's picture
Simulating job growth through macro models
Macro models aim to better track the ripple of jobs generated throughout the economy from private sector investments and interventions. Photo: Yang Aijun / World Bank
 

We are developing Macro Simulation Models to estimate how investments and interventions may generate jobs. Following the  Jobs Study conducted by the International Finance Corporation (IFC), the World Bank Group’s private sector arm, the Let’s Work Partnership was established to develop, refine, and apply tools to estimate direct, indirect, and induced job effects. Macro models are one of these tools.

An early education in development

Ellysar Baroudy's picture
This World Bank staff member, from a traditional Maasai pastoralist family in Southern Kenya, is helping to ensure that indigenous people have a seat at the table when it comes to forest conservation and climate change.

The story begins a world away from Washington. Nicholas Meitiaki Soikan — or Soikan as he’s known to most — was the sixth of seven children in what is considered a small Maasai family from Kajiado county in Kenya.
As a young boy, his mornings were spent herding livestock, mostly cattle that he had names for and considered his pets. He and his siblings went to primary school in shifts, so that meant Soikan’s turn to study was in the afternoon, often under a large acacia tree.

A pre-analysis plan is the only way to take your p-value at face-value

Berk Ozler's picture

Andrew Gelman has a post from last week that discusses the value of preregistration of studies as being akin to the value of random sampling and RCTs that allow you to make inferences without relying on untestable assumptions. His argument, which is nicely described in this paper, is that we don’t need to assume nefarious practices by study authors, such as specification searching, selective reporting, etc. to worry about the p-value reported in the paper we’re reading being correct.

How change happens (or doesn’t) in the humanitarian system

Duncan Green's picture

I’ve been in Stockholm this week [February 13-17] at the invitation of ALNAP, the Active Learning Network for Accountability and Performance in Humanitarian Action, which has been holding its annual meeting on the banks of a frozen Swedish river. I was asked to comment on the background paper for the meeting, Changing Humanitarian Action?, by ALNAP’s Paul Knox-Clarke.  I read the paper on the flight over (great believer in Just in Time working practices….) with mounting excitement. It’s a brilliant, beautifully written intro to how change happens (or doesn’t) in the aid business, and to a lot of different schools of thought about change.

The paper starts off with the widespread frustration in the humanitarian sector. Despite dozens of new initiatives, impressive sounding statements and resolutions, and endless organizational change processes, ‘everything has changed, but nothing has changed’ in the words of one African humanitarian veteran.  Changes include an avalanche of information technology, the rise of cash programming, geopolitical shifts towards new donors, growth in the number and size of humanitarian emergencies, organizations and the budgets allocated to them. Yet still people ‘did not see these ‘big’ changes as having made a real difference to the lives of people affected by crisis.’ So the paper is as much as study in how change doesn’t happen as how it does.

The bit of the paper that really grabbed me was the succinct summary of three conventional models of change that underpin humanitarian thinking, and three new ones that could shed new light. None of them are definitive; all contribute to a deeper understanding.

Developing venture capital for young startup firms in Morocco

Randa Akeel's picture


Businesses, for many the real drivers of job creation, can also be the foundation of wealth and greater economic inclusion of the general population. Jobs or Privileges, a World Bank Group report published in 2014, shows that high-growth startups—or young firms—accounted for all net job creation in Morocco’s manufacturing sector at the time. But, by comparison with older small or medium–size enterprises, young start-ups faced far greater barriers in Morocco to accessing finance.

Getting closer to equal in Brazil? Yes, but…

Miriam Müller's picture


Basically, any general statement you use to describe Brazil can be countered with a ‘but…’. The vast internal diversity in the country calls for nuanced statements. When it comes to the status of gender equality in Brazil, there are several layers of ‘but’.
 
Brazil has come a long way towards gender equality.

Weekly links March 10: Ex post power calcs ok? Indian reforms, good and bad policies, and more…

David McKenzie's picture
  • Andrew Gelman argues that it can make sense to do design analysis/power calculations after the data have been collected – but he also makes clear how NOT to do this (e.g. if a study with a small sample and noisy measurement finds a statistically significant increase of 40% in profits, don’t then see whether it has power to detect a 40% increase – instead you should be looking for the probability the treatment effect is of the wrong sign, or that the magnitude is overestimated, and should be basing the effect size you examine power for on external information). They have an R function retrodesign() to do these calculations.
  • Annie Lowrey interviews Angus Deaton in the Atlantic, and discusses whether it is better to be poor in the Mississippi Delta or in Bangladesh, opioid addiction, and the class of President Obama.

Keeping score

Hartwig Schafer's picture

When we think of scorecards, we think of football or other sports where we want to keep track of how our favorite players and teams are doing. We at the World Bank are also a team – a team battling a very tough opponent; in fact, two opponents: poverty and inequality. While this not a “game” by any means – the stakes are high as the lives and livelihoods of millions of people around the world are on the line – we also want to keep track of how we’re doing.

Scorecard

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