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Is the declining pace of innovation lowering productivity & growth?

Vinaya Swaroop's picture

If you have been listening lately to Robert ‘Bob’ Gordon, an economics professor at Northwestern University, he will tell you that the days of great inventions are over. This in turn, has led to a significant slowdown in total factor productivity – a measure that economists use to measure innovation and technical progress. Falling productivity is one of the main reasons for growth shortfall in advanced economies like the United States.

Eager to know more about this seemingly worrisome and pessimistic thesis, which has attracted a lot of attention among economists and the media, we invited Gordon to give a talk at the World Bank.

Power Calculations for Regression Discontinuity Evaluations: Part 2

David McKenzie's picture

Part 1 covered the case where you have no data. Today’s post considers another common setting where you might need to do RD power calculations.
Scenario 2 (SCORE DATA AVAILABLE, NO OUTCOME DATA AVAILABLE): the context here is that assignment to treatment has already occurred via a scoring threshold rule, and you are deciding whether to try and collect follow-up data. For example, referees may have given scores for grant applications, and proposals with scores above a certain level got funded, and now you are deciding whether to collect outcomes several years later to see whether the grants had impacts; or kids may have sat a test to get into a gifted and talented program, and now you want to see whether to collect to data on how these kids have done in the labor market.

Here you have the score data, so don’t need to make assumptions about the correlation between treatment assignment and the score, but can use the actual correlation in your data. However, since the optimal bandwidth will differ for each outcome examined, and you don’t have the outcome data, you don’t know what the optimal bandwidth will be.
In this context you can use the design effect discussed in my first blog post with the actual correlation. You can then check with the full sample to see if you would have sufficient power if you surveyed everyone, and make an adjustment for choosing an optimal bandwidth within this sample using an additional multiple of the design effect as discussed previously. Or you can simulate outcomes and use the simulated outcomes along with the actual score data (see next post).

Media (R)evolutions: Digital news gains ground on traditional print press

Roxanne Bauer's picture

New developments and curiosities from a changing global media landscape: People, Spaces, Deliberation brings trends and events to your attention that illustrate that tomorrow's media environment will look very different from today's, and will have little resemblance to yesterday's.

Many newspapers and media watchers around the world bemoan the “death of print”, stirring a sense of loss because print newspapers represent something historical, nostalgic, or dramatic to their readers.  Many who lament the demise of print newspapers do so because they believe it signals two broad trends: younger generations don’t see the point of buying a hard copy of newsprint and people are reading less and are, therefore, less informed.  On the first point, it is true that in developed countries there has been a steady decline in the circulation of newspaper print editions, but it should be noted that print media is still growing in developing media countries, like India and China.  

On the second point, it’s clear that people are not actually reading less news. Data from Global Web Index makes it clear that internet users are spending more time each day perusing digital news. On average, adults with internet access are now spending 50 minutes a day reading online press – more than 10 minutes longer than they spend reading print versions. Mobiles phones have had a clear impact, allowing users to keep up with the news throughout the day, and 6 in 10 adults are now visiting news websites on their mobiles each month, with 41% using a dedicated news app. 

This data suggests that the market for paid news is not failing and there are possible business models for online news. The need for information will not vanish and their remains a market for high-quality credible news. Press sites will have to work harder, though, to convince consumers to visit their sites directly rather than social networks as Twitter and Facebook, which have been positioning themselves as prime sources for news.

Chart: Literacy Rates Higher Among Youth than Adults

Tariq Khokhar's picture

In 1970, four in 10 adults were illiterate. Today that figure is less than two in 10. In every region of the world, literacy has improved, and literacy rates among youth aged 15-24 are higher than adults over 15, especially in South Asia, Sub Saharan Africa and the Middle East. Access data on youth literacy and adult literacy at data.worldbank.org. 
 

The microfinance business model: Enduring subsidy and modest profit

Bob Cull's picture

Microfinance institutions aim to serve customers ill-served by traditional commercial banks and thus the associated business model is challenging by definition. And yet the industry has achieved impressive scale reaching 211  million customers globally in 2013. Paradoxically, recent evidence suggests that the benefits of microcredit to borrowers may be modest. For example, six prominent randomized controlled trials found small impacts of access to microcredit on the incomes and consumption levels of marginal borrowers, though the studies found some “potentially important” (though modest) impacts on “occupational choice, business scale, consumption choice, female decision power, and improved risk management.” (Banerjee et al., 2015, p. 14).

Papua New Guinea: Improving literacy in Bougainville, one step at a time

Tom Perry's picture
Students from Aravira Primary School in central Bougainville, Papua New Guinea on their walk to school - which for some, takes up to four hours
Students from Aravira Primary School in central Bougainville, Papua New Guinea on their walk to school - which for some, takes up to four hours 

After a two-hour drive from the nearest main road, our 4WD can travel no further; me and my travelling companions will have to trek the rest of our journey to Aravira Primary School in Bougainville on foot. As we set off, a group of students from the school emerge from the bush in front of us. They smile, extend their hands in welcome and immediately offer to take my backpack. 

I politely refuse, yet within minutes I regret my decision to turn down help. As we move through the long grass along the mountain ridge, the heat which a few minutes ago was manageable is now unbearable. I’m pouring in sweat. My backpack feels 10 kilograms heavier, and the ground beneath me feels as if I’m stepping onto ice. Ten minutes into our journey, I lose my feet, slip into a crevice, and land face-first in the nearest bush.

Victims of crime: Service delivery and support for the most vulnerable

Georgia Harley's picture

The news is filled with stories of crime & violence, law & order. We hear from victims and eyewitnesses. We send thoughts and prayers. But when the spotlight moves on to the next crime or the next city, the victims of crime and their families remain, trying to get back on their feet after an ordeal.  

Often, these are among the most vulnerable members of our communities.

Why ending violence is a development imperative

Ede Ijjasz-Vasquez's picture

Each year, about half a million people are killed by intentional homicide. That means one life is lost to violence per minute worldwide.

Latin America and Caribbean is among the hardest hit by chronic violence. Today, the region still sees an average rate of 24 homicides per 100,000 inhabitants—more than twice the World Health Organization (WHO)’s threshold for endemic violence.

If violence is an epidemic, youth are—by far—the largest risk group. In Latin America, the homicide rate for males aged 15-24 reaches 92 per 100,000, almost four times the regional average. Young people aged 25-29 years, predominately males, are also the main perpetrators of crime and violence, according to an upcoming World Bank report. 

Endemic violence also translates into less productivity, poorer health outcomes and high security costs. The cumulative cost of violence is staggering—up to 10% of GDP in some countries—with negative long-term consequences on human, social, economic, and sustainable development.

Ending violence is not only a must for law and justice, but also a development imperative.

The good news is that violence can be prevented. For example, cities like Medellin in Colombia and Diadema in Brazil have dramatically reduced homicide rate over the last few decades, thanks to tailored solutions backed by robust data analysis and a “whole-of-society” approach.  

In this video, we will discuss why violence is an important development issue, how countries and cities can effectively fight violence and crime, and what the World Bank and its partners are doing to ensure security and opportunity for all—especially youth and the urban poor. 

Related:
 

Netflixing learning: How to select a good learning video?

Tanya Gupta's picture

Welcome to the fifth blog of the technology aided gut (TAG) checks series where we use a just-in-time learning strategy to help you learn to do TAG checks on your data.  Our last post talked about web videos as a learning tool. We shared five questions one should ask before choosing a video source over text, audio or other media. Once you have decided that video is the most suitable format for your particular learning task - the next question is finding the right video for you to watch. This is the focus of this blog. When it comes to learning videos, one size does not fit all. A highly rated learning video on YouTube may not necessarily suit your needs. The two key determinants of a good match are the type of learning you need to do and your familiarity with the subject matter.
 

What and How-To learning types

When it comes to learning something, most belong to the What category or the How-To category.


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