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Traffic Risk in Highway PPPs, Part I: Traffic Forecasting — It’s ok to be wrong, just try to be less wrong

Matt Bull's picture


Photo: Jorge Franganillo | Flickr Creative Commons

This is the first of a three-part series on traffic risk in PPPs

"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future."
– Professor Nils Bohr, Nobel Laureate

Professor Bohr was right: prediction is hard work. As a species, we don’t have difficulty making predictions. I, for one, frequently make doom-laden predictions on a diverse range of subjects ranging from politics to the fortunes of my beloved football team, Liverpool Football Club.

No, the problem is that humans, as a rule, are not very good at predictions. Sadly, that illusive ‘crystal ball’ still has not been invented. And the sheer complexity of living on an ever-changing and evolving planet alongside 7 billion equally complex individuals—all making unique but increasingly interdependent decisions—makes even the most straightforward predictions difficult.