Photo Credit: Xing Yihang | CRIENGLISH.com
Kenya recently launched its high-capacity, high-speed standard gauge railway (SGR) for passenger and freight transportation, which currently runs from the coastal city of Mombasa to the capital city, Nairobi. The SGR replaces the meter gauge railway passenger line that was constructed during the British colonial period that was commonly referred to as the lunatic express.
The Kenyan SGR is part of a proposed wider regional network for the development of railway connecting Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda and South Sudan. Each of these countries is expected to develop the part of the railway line falling within its borders. Kenya is ahead of the pack, being the first country in the region to operationalize the SGR.
from the British colonialists in 1963. From a public-private partnership (PPP) perspective, the SGR is a unique project for various reasons:
Welcome to the “10 Candid Career Questions” series, introducing you to the infrastructure and PPP professionals who do the deals, analyze the data, and strategize on the next big thing. Each of them followed a different path into infra and/or PPP practice, and this series offers an inside look at their backgrounds, motivations, and choices. Each blogger receives the same 10 questions that tell their career story candidly and without jargon. We hope you will be surprised and inspired.
We’ve just released the 2016 update for the World Bank’s Private Participation in Infrastructure (PPI) Database and it makes for some gloomy reading. Investment commitments (investments) in infrastructure with private participation in Emerging Markets and Developing Economies (EMDEs) fell by a whopping 37% compared to 2015.
Photo: Japanexperterna | Flickr Creative Commons
The world is crying out for new infrastructure. In emerging market countries, growing populations and rapid urbanization mean that cities are struggling to keep pace with the needs of citizens. Meanwhile, infrastructure is outdated in many developed countries.
Yet there is a $1 trillion annual shortfall in infrastructure investment, mostly in emerging markets. At the same time, there are billions of dollars in debt capital seeking secure and healthy returns.
Given the long-term, stable cash flows of many infrastructure projects, it seems the perfect destination for such capital. But in large part, this investment is not taking place. What will it take to increase the supply of well-structured projects?
Photo: Munish Chandel | Flickr Creative Commons
This is the final blog in a three-part series on traffic risk in PPPs
As explained in the previous two blogs – Traffic Risk in Highway PPPs, Part I: Traffic Forecasting and Traffic Risk in PPPs, Part II: Bias in Traffic Forecasts – traffic risk is inevitable, given our imperfect ability to predict traffic and revenue a long way (often several decades) into the future. And what makes it harder is that there are often biases at play in the typical project environment, which can cause a skewness towards over-estimation rather under-estimation of traffic flows. This, of course, can then result in financial losses and distress for the project, as manifested in a number of high profile bankruptcies, renegotiations and bailouts in the toll road sector.
In the new PPIAF and GIF publication, Toll Road PPPs: Identifying, Mitigating and Managing Traffic Risk, we outline various ways in which governments, bidders and financiers can take important steps to reduce the amount of traffic risk in projects. But we also acknowledge that the use of, for example, industry-standard forecasting techniques, better due diligence and a more stable policy environment will only go so far in reducing traffic risk. The reality is that there will always be some risk in any project, regardless of the best endeavors taken by the project parties. So, the key question is, what should we do with traffic risk and who should be responsible for bearing that risk?
An artist’s interpretation of the Attika Schools PPP Project in Greece, which reached financial close in Q2 2014
(Photo: World Fianance)
In 2014, the 24 Schools Public-Private Partnership (PPP) project in the wider Athens area marked the reopening of the Greek PPP market and was only the second PPP project to reach financial close in Greece.
It aimed to address the existing quantity and quality need for schools, covering 6,500 students in 10 municipalities who came from diverse socio-economic backgrounds in the historical region of Attica, which encompasses the city of Athens. Benefits included the timely and enhanced delivery of schools to improve educational outcomes, better maintenance through the lifetime of the project, the highest service standards, the response to user needs, and significant savings in energy cost.
(Photo: Getty Images)
There is a huge need for new and upgraded infrastructure around the world, particularly in emerging markets. Policy makers like to talk about raising trillions of dollars to fund infrastructure, but the truth is that capital for good projects exists. Regulation and lack of policy clarity are inhibitors.
What lacks is a strong pipeline of projects that meet societal needs and are financeable. If we can increase the quality of projects, and encourage smart and efficient regulations, the money to fund them will follow.
We identified several areas that should be prioritized by the international community and local governments.
Photo: Adam Cohn | Flickr Creative Commons
India, until recently the fastest growing economy in the world, realized long ago the need for developing infrastructure to fuel its growth. The government also realized that doing so with public funds would not be sufficient. Hence, India rolled out one of the largest Public-Private Partnership (PPP) programs in the world over the first decade of the 21st century.
But India’s massive program also brought with it some challenges, which eventually slowed down the growth of PPPs over the last five years. Yet, this was not the end of the program or our national infrastructure ambitions. This was a learning period, and the relevant government agencies have been efficient in mapping out the constraints that plagued the PPP market and are working on policies to remedy them. It remains to be seen whether or not the implementation of these corrective measures will put the jewel back in the crown of Indian PPPs, but it is a step in the right direction.