Global Economic Prospects 2015

The global economy is still struggling to gain momentum. Read more ...

Development Prospects

Providing information, analysis, and advice on global trends in the world economy.  Find out more ...

Global Economic Monitor

Now free. Daily and monthly updates on global economic developments and relevant topical issues. Find out more ...

Syndicate content

November 2012

Prospects Daily: Japan’s industrial production picks up…Brazil’s growth accelerates...India’s growth slows…

Global Macroeconomics Team's picture

Financial Markets…U.S. Treasuries advanced on Friday, with the benchmark 10-year yield sliding 2 basis points to 1.60%, amid growing concerns over the slow progress of U.S. budget talks. U.S. securities added gains after government data showed personal income and consumption fell short of expectations in October
The Japanese yen dropped to a seven-month low against the euro, depreciating 0.9% to 107.51 per euro in New York trading, as the country’s consumer prices remained flat in October.

Prospects Daily: US GDP grew at 2.7% annualized rate in third quarter, Chilean industrial production accelerates in October

Global Macroeconomics Team's picture

Financial Markets…Spanish benchmark 10-year government bond yield fell 4 basis points to 5.29% in afternoon trading, the lowest level in eight months, as investors speculated the region’s debt situation is improving. Italian 10-year bond yield also dropped as much as 12 bps to 4.47% in earlier trading, the least since December 2010.

Prospects Daily: Spanish retail sales slump, Growth in Peru and Philippines accelerates

Global Macroeconomics Team's picture

Financial Markets…European government securities rallied, with the German 10-year yield falling 7 basis points to 1.37% as signs of slowing inflation lifted demand for fixed-income asset. Italy’s 10-year yield dropped 5 bps to 4.67%, the lowest level since June 2011, while Spain’s 10-year yield fell as much as 10 bps to 5.42%, the least since October 22.

Prospects Daily: European Finance Ministers and IMF reach agreement on Greek deal, South Africa’s GDP slows in the third quarter

Global Macroeconomics Team's picture

Financial Markets…European finance ministers and the International Monetary Fund reached an agreement to ease the terms on bailout loans for Greece, clearing the way for the second installment of aid in December. With the deal, international lenders agreed to lower the rates on aid loans, suspend interest payments for a decade, and give Greece more time to pay back.

Prospects Daily: Italian consumer confidence falls to record low, China’s HSBC PMI rises to a 13-month high

Global Macroeconomics Team's picture

Financial Markets…U.S Treasuries rose for the first time in five days on Monday, with the benchmark 10-year yield sliding 4 basis points to 1.625% from a two-week high of 1.70% on Friday, as the looming U.S. fiscal cliff and political uncertainty in Spain boosted appetite for safe-haven assets.

Prospects Daily: International lenders postpone aid for Greece, South Africa's inflation rises to 5.6%

Global Macroeconomics Team's picture

Financial Markets…European finance ministers, the International Monetary Fund, and the European Central Bank failed to clinch a debt-reduction deal for Greece after clashing over how to make the country’s fiscal health sustainable. The disagreement delays the disbursement of next aid payment to Greece further, at least until the next meeting on November 26.

Prospects Daily: Egypt reaches a preliminary agreement with the IMF for a US$4.8 billion loan, Turkey narrows its interest rate corridor further

Global Macroeconomics Team's picture

Financial Markets…Moody’s Investors Service lowered France’s sovereign credit rating by one notch to ‘Aa1’ from the top credit rating of ‘Aaa’, citing an uncertain fiscal outlook and worsening economic outlook. The downgrade follow the one by S&P in January, when the rating agency cut the nation’s rating to ‘AA+’ from ‘AAA.’

Prospects Weekly: Moderate inflation in some countries provides scope for policy easing, weak capital goods orders suggest that firms unwilling to commit to long-term investment

Global Macroeconomics Team's picture
Moderate inflation in some countries provides scope for policy easing to support growth if external conditions were to deteriorate; but policy options in others are constrained by high inflation. Weak capital goods orders in high income countries suggest that firms remain unwilling to commit to long-term investments amid US fiscal cliff and Euro Area risks.

Prospects Daily: US existing homes sales rise in October, GDP growth slows in Israel, Chile and Thailand in the third quarter

Global Macroeconomics Team's picture

Financial Markets…The perceived default risk of European corporate debt fell by the most in more than weeks on U.S. fiscal cliff optimism, with the Markit iTraxx Crossover Index of credit-default swaps on 50 companies with mostly speculative credit ratings dropping 29 basis points to 537 bps.

Prospects Daily: US industrial output drops in October, GDP growth slows in Mexico and Malaysia in Q3

Global Macroeconomics Team's picture

Financial Markets…Foreign purchase of U.S. financial assets plummeted in September, with net buying of long-term equities, notes, and bonds falling to just $3.3 billion in the month from $90.3 billion in August, due partly to the improved market sentiment toward the European debt situation and profit taking on earlier purchases.

Prospects Daily: Euro Area slips into recession in third quarter, Turkey's current account deficit widens

Global Macroeconomics Team's picture

Financial Markets…Global equities fell for a seventh day, with the benchmark MSCI world stock index sliding 2%, hurt by mounting concerns over the U.S. fiscal crisis and reports that the Euro-area economy entered its second recession since 2009. World stocks have lost more than 3% this month.

The Japanese yen weakened 1.4% to 81.39 per dollar, after reaching a nearly 6-month low of 81.46, amid prospects of further aggressive monetary easing following a contraction in third quarter GDP. The yen also fell 1.7% to 103.92 per euro, the lowest in almost two weeks.

Prospects Daily: Euro Area industrial output falls most in three years in September, India’s inflation eases in October

Global Macroeconomics Team's picture

Financial Markets…Germany’s government sold €4.3 billion ($5.5 billion) of 2-year bonds at a negative yield of minus 0.02% the second time on record and down from 0.07% when comparable debt was auctioned last month, amid strong demand for the nation’s debt. The first negative yield debt was sold in July.

Prospects Daily: Greece granted 2-year extension to reach deficit targets, Philippines exports expand at the fastest pace in two years

Global Macroeconomics Team's picture

Financial Markets…U.S. Treasuries advanced for a fourth consecutive day in Tuesday, pushing the benchmark 10-year yield down to as low as 1.57% (the lowest since Sept. 5), as investors remained concerned about the so-called U.S. fiscal cliff.

Spanish borrowing costs rose to a six-week high, with the benchmark 10-year bond yield rising as high as 6 basis points to 5.96%. The country’s 2-year rate also rose, climbing as much as 7 bps to 3.28%, the highest increase in a month.

Prospects Daily: Japan’s GDP contracts at annualized 3.5% (q/q) in third quarter

Global Macroeconomics Team's picture

Financial Markets…Global stock markets fluctuated between gains and losses, following three consecutive days of losses last week, as strong Chinese exports data in October offset worries over a prospect of the so-called U.S. fiscal cliff and Greek woes. The benchmark MSCI global equity index just slipped 0.04% in afternoon trading.

Prospects Weekly: Private capital flows to developing countries eased in October

Global Macroeconomics Team's picture
Private capital flows to developing countries eased in October, but remain close to their highest level in more than a year, led by robust bond issuance by emerging market sovereigns and firms. Business sentiment has strengthened in some countries, including the US and several emerging markets, but remains weak in general amid US “fiscal cliff” and Euro Area risks.

Prospects Daily: Year-to-date global corporate bond sales rose to $3.43 trillion

Global Macroeconomics Team's picture

Financial Markets…Year-to-date global corporate bond sales rose to $3.43 trillion, already surpassing 2011’s full year total of $3.29 trillion, as further stimulus from global central banks pushed yields to record lows. Funding costs for the riskiest to the most creditworthy corporates are plunging as the persistent low-yield environment spurred unprecedented investor demand.

Prospects Daily: Greek parliament approves austerity measures, industrial production in Malaysia and Turkey recovers

Global Macroeconomics Team's picture

Financial Markets…The euro weakened 0.3% to $1.2733 in London trading from a two-month low of $1.2717 earlier, after the European Central Bank left interest rate unchanged at a record low of 0.75% on Thursday.

Spanish government bonds declined for a second day, with the benchmark 10-year yield rising 14 basis points to 5.83%, because of increased debt supply (following today’s sale of €4.76 billion in 3-, 5-, and 20-year securities) and growing worries among investors that the country may not ask for a bailout program any time soon.

Prospects Daily: Market reaction to U.S election outcome mixed, Poland and Kenya cut key policy rates

Global Macroeconomics Team's picture

Financial Markets…The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed 0.7% as a clear U.S. election outcome came on the eve of a leadership change in China. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index lost 0.3%, erasing earlier gains, and U.S. equities opened lower, as the initial U.S. election euphoria faded.

Prospects Daily: German factory orders decline, Philippines’ inflation moderates despite continued policy easing

Global Macroeconomics Team's picture

Financial Markets…Greek government bonds rallied, with the benchmark 10-year yield sliding 46 basis points to 17.39%, on optimism that the country will receive the next tranche of bailout funds. 10-year yields on Spanish and Italian bonds fell as well for the first time in three days, declining 5 bps to 5.71% and 6 bps to 4.94%, respectively.

World Bank published latest commodity prices: November 2012

John Baffes's picture

In October 2012, energy and non-energy prices fell by 2.4% and 1.6%, respectively.  Food prices dropped by 4.0%, beverages declined by 3.6%, raw materials edged up by 1.0%, metals increased by 1.4% and fertilizers eased by 0.8%.  The US dollar depreciated 0.7% against the euro and 0.3% against a broad index of currencies.

 

Prospects Daily: Services sector indices for the US, UK and India decelerate, Indonesia’s growth slows in the third quarter of 2012

Global Macroeconomics Team's picture

Financial Markets…Safe-haven government bonds extended their gains, with U.S. Treasury 10-year yields sliding 3 basis points to 1.68% and comparable German bund yields falling 2 bps to 1.43%, amid Greek worries and uncertainty before U.S. presidential elections tomorrow. Notably, German 2-year note yields fell below zero for the first time since September 6th.

Prospects Weekly: Real GDP growth accelerated in both the United States (US) and China in the third quarter

Global Macroeconomics Team's picture

Recently released data show real GDP growth accelerated in both the United States (US) and China in the third quarter (Q3). Though Q3 GDP data for other large economies are yet to be published, the rebound observed in industrial production in the Euro Area, Brazil, and India suggests GDP growth could have picked up there as well.

Prospects Daily: Euro Area manufacturing PMI falls in October, Brazil’s industrial production declines in September

Global Macroeconomics Team's picture

Financial Markets…Outstanding syndicated loans in Japan’s corporate sector rose 6% to a record high of 60.2 trillion yen ($750 billion) at the end of September from a year earlier as many companies preferred bank loans to bonds to pay for their overseas acquisitions. The nation’s outstanding corporate bonds fell to a 2-year low in June.