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April 2013

Prospects Daily: Euro falls on rate cut expectations, German and US consumer confidence picks up, Croatia IP rebounds

Financial Markets…U.S. stocks rose to fresh records on Monday, with the S&P’s 500 Index climbing 0.7% to close at all-time high of 1,593.61, as investors cheered a better than expected report on pending sales of U.S. home and remained firmly on the prospect of an extension of the current stimulus programs by the Federal Reserve. The S&P has gained 1.6% thus far in April, and it surged 136% from a 12-year low in 2009.

Prospects Daily: Italian borrowing costs drop lower, US and German inflation eases…Libya announces new oil financing deal for Egypt

Financial Markets…Global shares extended their gains today, with the benchmark MSCI world equity index rising 0.2% after gaining 2.3% last week, as investors speculated that continued monetary stimulus from the US and Euro zone central banks will bolster global economic recovery. News of Italy’s new government and higher-than-expected US consumer spending in March also weighed positively on world stock markets.

Prospects Daily: Chinese yuan surges, UK avoids triple-dip recession in Q1, Colombia sovereign ratings upgraded

Financial Markets…The 5-year borrowing costs for U.S. government debt fell to the lowest level since November at an auction today as concerns over global growth and signs of continued central banks’ assistance boosted demand for safe-have assets. The U.S. Treasury sold $35 billion of 5-year notes at a yield of 0.710, the least since the auction on November 28, with the bid-to-cover ratio of 2.86.

Prospects Daily: Italian borrowing costs improve, US capital orders growth eases, Brazil’s current account deficit widens

Financial Markets… German stocks gained for a third day, with the benchmark DAX index extending this week’s gain to more than 3%, amid growing speculation of further monetary easing by central banks. Investors dismissed poor economic data to focus on prospects of more central bank help.

Prospects Weekly: Retail sales growth slowed in the United States, Inflationary pressures in both high-income and developing countries, High-income country stock markets have outperformed developing countries

Retail sales growth slowed in the United States and in several large developing countries, but has strengthened in Japan and the Euro Area. Inflationary pressures in both high-income and developing countries taken as a whole have eased, but there are signs of pressure in the Middle-East & North Africa, South Asia and parts of East Asia & the Pacific.

Prospects Daily: Russian corporate debt issuance surges, UK AAA rating cut, Mexico retail sales contract

Financial MarketsItalian government bonds rose on Monday, with the 2-year note yield sliding 8 basis points to a record low of 1.25%, amid signs of progress in breaking the country’s political gridlock following the re-election of the president. Italy’s 15-year bond yield fell as much as 14 bps to 4.23%, the lowest level since December 2006.

Prospects Daily: Gold prices recover slightly, UK retail sales up in Q1, Mexico’s unemployment rate falls

Financial Markets… The yen fell for a fourth day versus the dollar on Friday, sliding 1% to 99.14 in morning trade, after the Japanese finance minister said the country’s monetary easing policies that have weakened the currency has not met with opposition at the G20 meeting. Japan’s currency also fell 1.2% versus the euro to 129.66.

Prospects Daily: Spanish bonds advance, US Philly Fed activity index eases in April, Brazil hikes benchmark rate

Financial Markets…Japanese shares fell for the fourth time in five days, with the Topix Index sinking 1.2%, as the yen appreciation and falling commodity prices weighed negatively on the country’s stocks. The Topix climbed 11% to the highest level since September 2008 last week, and the gauge surged 57% from mid-November through yesterday.

Prospects Daily: US bonds advance on safe-haven flows, Japan consumer confidence rises, South Africa retail sales accelerate

Financial Markets…U.S. government bonds advanced for the fourth time in five days, with the benchmark 10-year note yields sliding to a 4-month low of 1.7%, as a sell-off in stocks and commodities spurred demand for the safe-haven assets. Notably, U.S. Treasuries outperformed the S&P 500 index thus far this month for the first time since November.

Prospects Daily: Gold bounces back, US industrial production accelerates, Turkey cuts rates

Financial Markets…Turkish government bonds tumbled, with the 2-year bond yields sliding as much as 26 basis points to a record low of 5.53%, as the country’s central bank cut its benchmark 1-week repo rate by more-than-expected 50 basis points to 5%.

Gold prices bounced back on Tuesday, rising 3% to $1,388.36 an ounce in London afternoon trading, after plunging 14% over two days, the biggest drop in 30 years. Despite todays’ gain, gold has declined 17% this far this year. Other precious metal prices including silver, platinum, and palladium also advanced today.

Prospects Daily: Commodity prices drop, US consumer and homebuilder confidence eases, China’s growth slows

Financial Markets…Spanish government bonds fell for a third day, with the benchmark 10-year yields sliding 4 basis points to 4.73%, as concerns over slowing China growth reduced the investor appetite for high-yielding assets. Meanwhile, Spanish Treasury is planning to sell new debt maturing between 2016 and 2023 on April 18.

DECPG Daily - April 12, 2013: US$ denominated bond sales in Asia surge…US retail sales ease…India IP growth slows

Financial Markets… U.S. government bonds rose for a second day on Friday, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury yields sliding 5 basis points to 1.74%, as U.S. retail sales eased in March. Renewed concerns over Cyprus in the wake of “further aid” talk also boosted demand for Treasuries.

Dollar-denominated bond sales in Asia excluding Japanreached all-time highs this week as dollar borrowings costs for region’s issuers dropped to a five-week low of 4.26% on Monday.

Prospects Daily: Developing country bond yields drop, Cyprus bailout costs rise, Industrial production falls in Malaysia, Mexico and South Africa

Financial Markets…The euro gained 0.4% against the dollar, rising to $1.3110 today, its strongest level in six weeks, as falling funding costs at Italian and Spanish government bond auctions added signs that the region’s debt crisis is subsiding. The 17-natiion currency remained strong versus the yen at 130.45, after reaching a three-year high of 130.83.

Prospects Daily: Yen continues to slide, China’s imports surge, Spain’s industrial production continues to contract

Financial Markets…Japan’s currency continued its slide triggered by Bank of Japan’s aggressive monetary easing plans. The dollar gained as much as 0.5% versus the yen to 99.53, just shy of its strongest since May 2009, which it hit Tuesday, while the euro gained 0.7%.

Prospects Daily: Fitch downgrades China’s local currency rating, Greece in deflation, China inflation slows

Financial Markets…The yen appreciated today from nearly four-year lows versus the dollar, gaining 0.5% to 98.90, as the sell-off in the Japanese currency halted after a three-day slump of 6.4%. The yen has tumbled 22% in the past six months as the government pledged to increase monetary stimulus to boost the economy.

Prospects Weekly: Gross capital flows to developing countries were robust in Q1 2013, Global industrial output expanded at a very robust pace during the same period, Prices of internationally traded maize and wheat fell sharply in recent days

Gross capital flows to developing countries were robust in Q1 2013 bolstered by improved financial market conditions.  Global industrial output expanded at a very robust pace during the same period.

Prospects Daily: Euro Area bond yields drop, Japanese economic sentiment improves, Turkey’s industrial output accelerates

Financial MarketsJapanese equities rallied on Monday, with the Nikkei 225 Stock Average gaining 2.8% to close at 41/2 year highs, after the yen fell against the dollar to its lowest level since June 2009, boosting share prices of the county’s exporters. The Nikkei surged 52% from mid-November through April 8 as the Japanese government vowed to reverse 15 years of deflation.

World Bank published latest commodity prices: April 2013

John Baffes's picture

In March of 2013, the US dollar price of internationally traded energy dropped by 4.2% while the dollar price of non-energy non-energy commodities fell by 2.9%. Food prices are down by 0.7%, beverages eased by 0.6%, raw materials declined by 2.4%, metals dropped by 6.7% while fertilizers are off by 1.9%. The declines partly reflect the appreciation of the US dollar, which rose by 3.4% against the euro and 0.9% against a broad index of currencies.

Prospects Daily: Euro Area bonds advance, US hiring slows…Egypt’s reserves fall to new lows

Financial Markets… Japanese equities climbed to near 5-year highs and long-term government bonds surged on Friday, a day after the Bank of Japan unveiled aggressive monetary easing to revive the economy. The Nikkei 225 closed 1.6% higher, extending gains since mid-November to 48%. Benchmark 10-year Japanese bonds yields fell by as much as 12bps to a record low of 0.315% in morning trade.

Prospects Daily: Yen weakens as Japan launches aggressive monetary easing, US jobless claims rise, Russia inflation eases

Financial Markets…The yen depreciated the most in 17 months versus the dollar on Thursday, sliding 2.6% to around 95.45, as the Bank of Japan unveiled an aggressive monetary easing program that will put pressure on the currency. The benchmark Nikkei 225 Stock Average rose 2.2% and yields on 10-year Japanese government bonds fell to a record low of 0.425%.

Prospects Daily: Cyprus’ IMF program finalized, US corn prices plunge, China’s services sector expands

Financial Markets… Corn futures in Chicago plunged 13% since the US Department of Agriculture said March 28 that inventories were bigger than analysts forecast and that farmers will plant the most acres this year since 1936. Corn, soybeans and wheat, the biggest U.S. crops have tumbled into bear markets with drops of more than 20% from 2012 highs.

Prospects Daily: Cypriot stocks open lower, Eurozone manufacturing weakens, Russia’s growth slows

Financial Markets… Cypriot stocks opened lower on Tuesday following a two-week hiatus in the wake of the country banking crisis, with the benchmark Cyprus General Market Index retreating 2.5%. The gauge has dropped 13% thus far this year, and it has tumbled 98% from its high reached in October 2007.

Prospects Daily: Cyrus exits from Eurozone…Korea receives investment grade rating… BRICs to set up parallel institutions

Financial Markets…Gross capital flows to developing countries jumped up in April, with all segments of the market experiencing a surge, as investor’s risk appetite improved. In particular, capital flows to North Korea rose to a record high in the month, with strong bond and equity issuance activity after Moodys and S&P unexpectedly awarded the nation’s first investment grade rating on Friday.