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The World Region

Impacts on Global Trade and Income of Current Trade Disputes

Caroline Freund's picture

Much has been written on the escalation of the trade dispute. What hasn’t been discussed is what will be the impact on developing nations who rely on trade as an engine of economic growth for ending poverty.  

As tariffs are beginning to be imposed, my team analyzed the impact of these new tariffs and the potential for tariff escalation in developing countries in a new World Bank working document. We found that the new trade tariffs will depress bilateral trade, disrupt global supply chains, and increase demand for substitutes from developing countries.  
 

Photo Source: Avigator Fortuner, Shutterstock

Exposure of Belt & Road Economies to China Trade Shocks

Paulo Bastos's picture
The Belt and Road (B&R) Initiative seeks to deepen regional integration by improving infrastructure and strengthening trade and investment linkages along the old Silk Road, from China to Europe. With several infrastructure projects already ongoing, the initiative is expected to progressively reduce trade costs over the coming decades, and hence generate long-run economic gains for B&R economies.
 
Photo: Rob Beechey / World Bank

Three Opportunities and Three Risks of the Belt and Road Initiative

Michele Ruta's picture

The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is an ambitious effort to deepen regional cooperation and improve connectivity on a trans-continental scale. While the scope of the initiative is still taking shape, the BRI consists primarily of the Silk Road Economic Belt, linking China to Central and South Asia and onwards to Europe, and the New Maritime Silk Road, linking China to the nations of South East Asia, the Gulf Countries, North Africa, and on to Europe. Six other economic corridors have been identified to link other countries to the Belt and the Road.

What’s challenging women as they seek to trade and compete in the global economy

Anabel Gonzalez's picture
The World Bank Group’s Trade & Competitiveness Global Practice is front and center in supporting our corporate Gender Strategy for 2016 to 2023. The strategy defines the level and type of support that the Bank Group is committed to provide to its client countries and firms to achieve greater gender equality.

Five actions that matter to the future of Aid for Trade

Anabel Gonzalez's picture
This week, myself and colleagues from the World Bank Group will participate in the World Trade Organization’s Sixth Global Review of Aid for Trade. The bi-annual meetings, held at WTO headquarters in Geneva, bring together trade ministers, civil society, international development institutions and the private sector to monitor progress made toward connecting developing countries to the global trade system.

Steps to Better Data on E-Trade for Developing Countries

Michael Ferrantino's picture
UNCTAD’s E-Commerce Week took place recently in Geneva, Switzerland. This third E-Commerce Week was the largest ever, with over 900 registered participants, plus walk-ins from the Geneva community. This is nearly triple last year’s attendance. The large turnout reflected the heightened interest of developing countries in e-commerce as a tool for promoting economic growth and opportunity. Highlights of the week included the launch of the online platforms for the multi-stakeholder E-Trade For All initiative  and its private-sector partner Business For E-Trade Development, and a special panel on digital transformation for small businesses and entrepreneurs, featuring Alibaba’s Jack Ma.

World Bank Economists reveal silver lining to the recent trade slowdown

Elena Gex's picture

Three World Bank Group Economists published a new blog post, This trade slowdown has a silver lining, that looks at the reasons for the 2015 global trade slowdown – cyclical factors and emerging economies – and what good we can expect to come out of it in 2016 and beyond. Using current World Bank Group data and facts, the piece from experts who work on trade every day offers a fresh perspective in a light-hearted manner on global trade and its future.

Going beyond goods: Measuring services for export competiveness

Claire H. Hollweg's picture

The simplest way to think about international trade is the transfer of goods – cars, clothing, bananas. Countries that export more goods are generally better off, because they’re earning money, which allows them to import and build their economies in the process. But services are also vital to exports. In fact, services play a dual role in building an economy’s export competitiveness.

For one, services matter for manufacturing and agriculture exports. Take tee-shirts for example. Sure, they’re made of cotton, but they’re also the result of many service industries. This can include transporting cloth to the factory, tee-shirt design, testing to ensure quality standards are met, and branding and marketing for sale on international markets. All are part of the tee-shirt exporting process. [1]

The second role services play in export competitiveness involves diversification. With cost reductions and technological progress, services have become more tradeable. Exporting services provides an opportunity for export diversification and growth, which is important for economic stability. If global demand for one sector drops, a country with diversified exports can rely on others such as banking, transport, or business services.

Many governments are interested in how services support their country’s exports and economy at large. For example, how much value added do services exports, such as transport or communications, generate in a country? And how much of that is generated directly versus indirectly as inputs like transportation in our tee-shirt example? What types of services inputs, and is that different from comparator countries?

Answers to such questions are typically left unanswered because systematic data is not readily available on how services contribute to exports across developing countries and sectors.

The Export of Value Added (EVA) Database was developed to fulfill this need. The database was recently launched on the World Bank Group’s World Integrated Trade Solutions (WITS) data website. It includes data for user-specific queries and also has data for bulk download.

The EVA Database measures the domestic value added contained in exports for about 120 economies across 27 sectors, including nine commercial services sectors, three primary sectors, and 14 manufacturing sectors. The data spans intermittent years between 1997 and 2011.

What sets the EVA Database apart is the wide coverage of developing countries: over 70 of the economies included are low- and middle-income.

Picture Trade: To Understand GVCs, Connect the Dots

Gianluca Santoni's picture
The increasing salience of global value chains and their analysis has created tremendous demand for “mapping” these chains. How can we quantify the ‘value’ along a chain? How can we visualize the connections between each link?

These are questions we’ve been seeking to answer at the World Bank Group. And we’ve developed a new visualization tool, accessible through our World Integrated Trade Solution database, which allows the public to explore the quantifiable reality of GVCs.

To give you an example of how it works, let’s look at the automotive sector—a very prominent and commonly discussed GVC.

Sturgeon and Memedovic developed a methodology to break down the automotive production chain into final goods—those purchased by the consumer—and intermediate goods—those purchased by other manufacturers as inputs to be used in their own production. They identify three main GVC ‘nodes’: Automotive components (made by suppliers); engines, transmissions, and body assemblies (made by automakers); and finished motor vehicles. Table 1 shows the main exporting country within each of these nodes and its relative market share within that node.
 
Table 1: Main exporter by automotive GVC node, 2014
Main exporter by automotive GVC node, 2014

Table 2 goes one step further. By digging into the trade data, we can identify the most important products for each GVC node, in terms of their relative weight on world trade. This also helps us, in part, to identify which products or activities along the production chain are most significant or add the most value.
 
Table 2: Most traded product by automotive GVC node, 2014
Most traded product by automotive GVC node, 2014

Perhaps not surprisingly, the most exchanged automotive input ‘made by suppliers’ in 2014 falls under the classification HS870899—‘parts and accessories.’ Now, to better understand exactly how these parts and accessories move along the GVC, we can use our Global Trade Network tool on WITS to map all of the bilateral trade flows for HS870899. [1]
 
Figure 1: Global Trade Network visualization for HS870899 - Supplier perspective, 2014
Global Trade Network visualization for HS870899 - Supplier perspective, 2014

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