Labor-intensive public works (LIPW) programs are a popular policy intended to provide temporary employment opportunities to vulnerable populations through work-intensive projects, such as the development and maintenance of local infrastructure, that do not require special skills. For a review of LIPW programs (design, evidence and implementation), see Subbarao et al. here. In fragile states, LIPW programs are also presumed to contribute to social and political stability. The developed infrastructure allows for the implementation of other development and peacekeeping activities, while employment opportunities may help prevent at-risk youth from being recruited by armed groups. Despite their popularity and presumed impact on beneficiaries, the evidence base of LIPW programs has been surprisingly weak.
The Development Impact Evaluation (DIME) unit, in collaboration with the Fragility, Conflict and Violence Cross Cutting Solutions Area (FCV-CSSA) and the Social Protection and Labor Global Practice (SPL-GP), is carrying out a multi-country set of 7 Randomized Control Trials (RCTs) of LIPW programs targeting around 40,000 households across 5 countries: Comoros, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Côte d’Ivoire, Egypt, and Tunisia. This initiative is part of a broader research program on Fragility, Conflict and Violence (FCV) — a portfolio of 35 impact evaluations in over 25 countries that focuses on 5 key priority areas: (i) jobs for the poor and at-risk youth; (ii) public sector governance/civil service reforms; (ii) political economy of post-conflict reconstruction; (iv) gender-based violence; and (v) urban crime and violence.
- In the Atlantic – are Jupyter notebooks going to replace pdfs for scientific papers? Konrad Hinsen discusses, noting that it seems the future isn’t here yet.
- On VoxDev, Daniel Bennett discusses how traditional medicine beliefs can hamper hygiene campaigns, and the results of an experiment which used microscopes to actually show people the microbes in standing water and buffalo dung – this led to improvements in hygiene and child health, but only for those without strong beliefs in traditional medicine in Pakistan.
- From Ifpri, a nice couple of summary notes by Berber Kramer and co-authors on testing picture-based crop insurance – where farmers take regular pictures of their crops throughout the growing cycle, and then these are used to assess damage: there is one note on willingness to pay, adverse selection and moral hazard, and one on the practical feasibility of the approach.
When John Maynard Keynes wrote that “In the long run we are all dead,” he probably didn’t mean a few days or months, notwithstanding a recent “long-term experimental” social psychology study that shows results over a whopping three days. Keynes lived an additional 23 years after publishing his famous statement, so I’ll call 23 years the “Keynes test” for long-run impacts.
In development economics, how long is the long run? I identified every article in three development economics journals that used the term “long run” in its title. The journals were the Journal of Development Economics, Economic Development and Cultural Change, and the World Bank Economic Review. 38 articles used the term – excluding two book reviews, of which 23 articles had empirical analysis. (It’s easy to talk about long run impacts when you’re only speaking theoretically.) Of those 23, 10 were micro and 13 were macro. So this is a small sample. Proceed with caution!
- AEA journals now require registration in the RCT registry: - the AEA journals' submission instructions now include: “The American Economic Association operates a Registry for Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs). In January of 2018, the AEA Executive Committee passed motion requiring the registration of RCTs for all applicable submissions. If the research in your paper involves a RCT, please register (registration is free), prior to submitting. In the online submission form, you will be required to provide the registration number issued by the Registry. We also kindly ask you to acknowledge compliance by including your number in the introductory footnote of your manuscript.” – note this registration can still be post-trial registration at this stage, but this definitely should encourage you to register new trials as you start them.
- Marginal revolution notes a newly published meta-analysis paper that compares RD estimates to RCT estimates on the same data, showing both internal and some external validity of the RD method.
My post earlier this week on dissipating effects of cash transfers on adults in beneficiary households has caused not only a fair amount of disturbance in the development community, but also a decent amount of confusion about the three-year impacts of GiveDirectly’s cash transfers, from a working paper by Haushofer and Shapiro (2018) – HS (18) from hereon. At least some, including GiveDirectly itself and some academics, seem to think that one can reasonably interpret the findings in HS (18) to imply that the short-term effects of GD, also by Haushofer and Shapiro (2016) – HS (16) from hereon – were sustained three years post treatment. Below, I try to clear up the confusion regarding the evidence and explain why I vigorously disagree with that interpretation.
- Sylvain Chabé-Ferret from the Toulouse School of Economics takes stock in The Empirical Revolution in Economics: Taking Stock and Looking Ahead. He proposes 8 knowledge achievements of the empirical revolution in economics, 4 methodological advances, 3 major challenges, and 3 proposed solutions.
Sue Dynarski from University of Michigan has a talk on "how to communicate with policymakers": "All communication is basically the same. Good communication is concise and it's to the point and it's concrete. And that's true for research writing... It's true for teaching... It's true if you're speaking to the public or to the media... It's just that people differ in how much they really have to listen to you." Policy makers don't have to listen to you. "Speaking in plain English is super important." She recommends Strunk and White's The Elements of Style. I do, too.
Matthew Jukes from RTI proposes a "context-mechanisms-outcomes approach" to doing and reporting impact evaluations in his piece "Learning more from impact evaluations: Contexts, mechanisms and theories of literacy instruction interventions," in order to get the most out of evaluaitons, and he gives examples from a recent literacy intervention in Kenya.
Over at the IFPRI blog, Tracy Brown reports on impact evaluations of "food-assisted maternal and child health and nutrition" programs in Guatemala and Burundi. In Burundi, "the largest impact on stunting was experienced by those who received food assistance throughout the entire period of the first 1,000 days, from conception to a child’s second birthday." (Blog 1, blog 2, with blog 3 coming soon here.)
Alice Evans's 4 Questions podcast has featured several Development Impact-relevant stories in the last couple of weeks, including Pam Jakiela and Owen Ozier discussing "the impact of conflict on people's preferences" for risk, Michael Woolcock on the value of mixed methods in understanding "what works," and me talking about an impact evaluation to improve health care management in Nigeria as well as about the World Development Report on Education.
At Oxford's conference at the Center for the Study of African Economies, DFID Chief Economist Rachel Glennerster -- who has worked extensively in policy and in academia – discussed the differences as she sees them, summarized below. You can watch her full talk here.