Output of emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) is expected to contract in 2020 for the first time in at least 60 years.
Chart 1. Deepest global recession since World War II
The global economy has experienced 14 global recessions since 1870: in 1876, 1885, 1893, 1908, 1914, 1917-21, 1930-32, 1938, 1945-46, 1975, 1982, 1991, 2009, and 2020.
Global per capita GDP growth
Chrt 2. Highest synchronization of national recessions since 1870
In 2020, the highest share of economies will experience contractions in annual per capita gross domestic product (GDP) since 1870. The share will be more than 90% higher than the proportion at the height of the Great Depression of 1930-32.
Economies with contractions in per capita GDP
Chart 3. Sharpest contraction in multiple measures of activity
In 2020, many indicators of global activity are expected to register the sharpest contractions in six decades. A large swath of services has seen a near sudden stop, reflecting both regulated and voluntary reductions in human interactions that could threaten infection.
Retail sales volume during global recessions
Chart 4. Sharpest decline in oil demand
The outbreak of COVID-19 and the wide-ranging measures needed to slow its advance have precipitated an unprecedented collapse in oil demand. They also resulted in a surge in oil inventories, and, in March, the steepest one-month decline in oil prices on record.
Oil consumption during global recessions
Chart 5. Declines in per capita output in all EMDE regions
The majority of EMDE regions will experience the lowest growth in at least 60 years, and all of them will see declines in regional per capita output for the first time during a global recession since 1960.
Per capita GDP growth in 2020, by region
It is also associated with unprecedented weakening in multiple indicators of global activity, such as services and oil demand, as well as declines in per capita income in all EMDE regions.