How can we provide employment to the 1.8 billion young people that live on this planet? Will we have enough jobs for all these young people? Will there be sufficient high-quality and high-productivity work, especially for women, who are often the most vulnerable when it comes to finding meaningful work?
According to the World Bank Development Report on Digital Dividends (2016), the rapid spread of digital technologies around the world is boosting economic growth and expands opportunities in many instances; but the benefits of technological changes are not evenly distributed to workers globally. For high-skilled workers, technology in most cases complements their skills, increases their productivity, and often leads to higher wages. Whereas for middle and low-skilled workers, benefits depend on the degree to which technology either complements or substitutes workers in job functions.
Methods that use satellite data and machine learning present a good peek into how Big Data and new analytical methods will change how we measure poverty. I am not a poverty specialist, so I am wondering if these data and techniques can help in how we estimate job growth.
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We are developing Macro Simulation Models to estimate how investments and interventions may generate jobs. Following the Jobs Study conducted by the International Finance Corporation (IFC), the World Bank Group’s private sector arm, the Let’s Work Partnership was established to develop, refine, and apply tools to estimate direct, indirect, and induced job effects. Macro models are one of these tools.
This year’s International Women’s Day “Women in the Changing World of Work: Planet 50-50 by 2030” places great emphasis on equality and economic empowerment. When countries give women greater opportunities to participate in the economy, the benefits extend far beyond individual girls and women but also to societies and economies as a whole. A recent study shows that raising labor participation of women at par with men can increase GDP in the United States by 5 percent, in the UAE by 12 percent and in Egypt by 34 percent.
My colleague Victoria and I had an opportunity recently to meet with students at the Tajik-Russian Slavonic University in Dushanbe, Tajikistan, as part of our research and preparation for a new report called Tajikistan Jobs Diagnostic: Strategic Framework for Jobs.
Curious to learn about their future professional ambitions, we asked one class of students how many of them would like to work in the private sector after they graduate. Only about 10% of the students raised their hands. We also asked them how many would like to work for the government. This time, around 20% raised their hands.
In addition to correctly measuring the jobs directly generated from interventions and investments, development agencies also need to estimate the resulting indirect impacts and general equilibrium effects. These are hard to measure. My recent blog highlighted the progress that donors, international financial institutions, and other multilateral agencies are making in developing standardized tools to measure these impacts. In addition to standardization, the focus is now on strengthening existing measurement tools and addressing the challenges that are left.
Technology is shaking up labor markets around the world. Increasingly intelligent machines are taking over routine jobs. Three-D printing is making many traditional, labor-intensive production processes obsolete. In total, almost half of all jobs may be at risk in the United States due to automation. Job losses are no longer just limited to blue collar occupations, but increasingly also affect high-paying white collar jobs such as in insurance, in the health sector or even in government bureaucracies. Is this the end of work as we know it? Not so fast, say some, who argue that technological progress and automation have not necessarily led to less demand for work on aggregate. An often cited example is the fact that the introduction of the automatic teller machine was accompanied by an expansion in retail banking jobs as banks opened more branches.
Let’s Work, a global partnership of over 30 organizations, is piloting tools that can help Development Finance Institutions (DFIs) measure the impact of private sector investments on jobs. The aim is for partners to not only measure jobs in the same consistent way, but also along the same nuanced dimensions: number of jobs gained, the quality of those jobs, and who gets those jobs (inclusiveness). One of the measurement methods being developed by the Partnership is the Jobs in Value Chains Survey tool.