Growth is expected to pick up in 2020, partly reflecting continued support from monetary policy. However, the recovery will hinge on the rebound of a small number of large emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs), most of which are coming out of deep recessions or sharp slowdowns. Even so, EMDE growth will be far from sufficient to make substantial progress in poverty reduction.
1. A post-crisis low in 2019
By most measures,
, with global growth reaching a post-crisis low of 2.4 percent.
2. A tepid pickup in 2020
3. An evolving macro policy landscape
In response to subdued activity, macroeconomic policy became more stimulative last year. While monetary policy is expected to remain accommodative, fiscal support is anticipated to fade this year.
4. A fragile rebound in EMDEs
The recovery will not be broad-based. Instead, it will mostly be driven by a pickup in a small number of large EMDEs emerging from deep recessions or sharp slowdowns.
5. Insufficient per capita growth to reduce poverty
Report: Global Economic Prospects
Global Growth: Modest Pickup to 2.5% in 2020 amid Mounting Debt and Slowing Productivity Growth