Africa and the Millennium Development Goals

At a recent DFID conference on the Millennium Development Goals, I argued that Africa can meet the MDGs, if not by 2015 then soon thereafter. Here is why:

1. Although most African countries are off-track on most of the MDGs, Africa has, since the mid-1990s, arguably been making the greatest progress towards the goals. 

2. Africa’s progress in the MDGs since the mid-1990s was due to economic growth and improved service delivery. 

3. While Africa was probably hardest-hit by the global economic crisis, the response of African policymakers helped to dampen the impact, and set the stage for the continent to benefit from a global recovery.

 

Let me elaborate:

1. Although most African countries are off-track on most of the MDGs, Africa has, since the mid-1990s, arguably been making the greatest progress towards the goals.  The poverty rate has been declining at about one percentage point a year.  There is some evidence that child mortality in Africa, after stagnating for some time, is beginning to fall sharply.  Countries such as Rwanda, Ethiopia, Gambia and Malawi have seen declines of 25-40 percent in under-five mortality in the last decade.  And in primary completion, if you take 1999 as the starting point, the fastest progress has been in Africa and South Asia.  While this has to do with the fact that these two regions had the lowest levels of primary completion, it is still significant that, unlike previous periods, the growth rate in Africa is the highest.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2. Africa’s progress in the MDGs since the mid-1990s was due to economic growth and improved service delivery.  Economic growth accelerated after 1995.  It was sustained for a decade, and accelerated even further until the onset of the global economic crisis of 2008.  Not only was Africa’s average economic growth during this period about 5 percent a year (rising to 6.2 percent in 2007), but it was relatively widespread. 

Some 22 non-oil-exporting African countries enjoyed better-than-four-percent average annual growth from 1998-2008.  The growth, in turn, was due to a combination of increased external resources (aid, debt relief, remittances and private capital flows), high commodity prices and a buoyant global economy, and improved economic policies.

Secondly, recognizing that money alone would not deliver the MDGs, some African countries introduced programs to improve the delivery of basic services.  Rwanda’s “paying-for-performance” scheme that increased incentives for health workers to provide services contributed to the country’s significant improvement in health indicators, as shown by comparing facilities that were and were not enrolled in the scheme.

3. While Africa was probably hardest-hit by the global economic crisis, the response of African policymakers helped to dampen the impact, and set the stage for the continent to benefit from a global recovery. 

In addition to facing a sharp drop in growth (from 5 percent in 2008 to 1.7 percent in 2009), throwing 7-10 million more Africans into poverty, and leading to the deaths of 30-50,000 additional infants before their first birthday, African policymakers were confronted with the fact that the payoffs to the economic reforms they had been pursuing over the past decade had suddenly declined. 

Rather than slowing or reversing these reforms, however, they by and large continued to pursue prudent economic policies during the crisis.  Those countries that had fiscal space (thanks to prudent policies before the crisis), such as Tanzania and Zambia, ran modest fiscal deficits; those that did not, such as Ghana, contracted their fiscal deficits.  Some countries accelerated their reforms.  As a result, economic growth is expected to be about 4 percent this year, which is still below pre-crisis levels but certainly a faster turnaround than Africa registered in previous crises.

Putting these points together, I conclude that, with a major effort by African governments, civil society, the private sector and the international community, Africa can meet the Millennium Development Goals, if not by 2015 then soon thereafter.