Published on Africa Can End Poverty

Can rapid population growth be good for economic development?

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Our generation is experiencing the most profound demographic transition ever and Africa is at the center of it.

Africa’s population is rising rapidly and will most likely double its population by 2050. Depending on the source of data, Africa will soon pass 1 billion people (and it may already have) and could reach up to 2 billion people by 2050 [ I am using the UN’s 2009 World Population Prospects, which projects Africa to exceed 1.7 billion by 2050 based on sharply declining fertility rates]. This makes it the fastest growing continent and Africa’s rapid growth will also shift the global population balance.

By 2050, Africa will be home to more than 20% of the world’s population.  When some of us were born in 1970, there were two Europeans for every African; by the time we may retire in 2030, there will be two Africans for every European.
 
Kenya mirrors Africa’s population growth. The population has doubled over the last 25 years, to about 40 million people, and rapid population growth is set to continue. Kenya’s population will grow by around 1 million per year – 3,000 people every day – over the next 40 years and will reach about 85 million by 2050.

Many think this is a big problem. There are three reasons why I am less certain that the rapid population growth in Africa, especially in Kenya, is the fundamental development challenge:

First, despite Africa’s rapid population growth and Europe’s stagnation (even decline in few countries) the old continent remains much more densely populated than Africa. If we look at Western Europe – where I come from – there are on average 170 people living on each square km. In Sub-Saharan Africa there are only 70 today. This gap will narrow in the next decades but even by 2050, Western Europe is expected to be more densely populated than Africa. I am following the population debates in Europe, especially in my (densely populated) home country Germany. I have never heard anyone argue that there are too many people in Europe.

Second, while the speed of population growth remains unchanged, its sources are different. In the past, population growth was driven by increasing numbers of children.  Today, and in the future, it is driven by longer life expectance and the “base effect” of the previous population boom. There are just many more young families which have children. However, they have fewer of them.  In Kenya, the number of children per family has fallen sharply, from 8.1 children in 1978 to 4.6 children in 2008, and by 2050 it may reach 2.4. As a result, the fastest growing group in Kenya’s population is not anymore young children – but adults which will almost triple in size from 21 million today to about 60 million in 2050. (see figure 1).

Figure 1 - Kenya today (2010) and tomorrow (2050) – Double the population but not many more children
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Source: World Bank computations based on United Nations, 2009, World Population Prospects

Third, population growth and urbanization go together, and economic development is closely correlated with urbanization. Rich countries are urban countries.  No country has ever reached high income levels with low urbanization. Population growth increases density and, together with rural-urban migration, creates higher urban agglomeration.  And this is critical for achieving sustained growth because large urban centers allow for innovation and increase economies of scale. Companies can produce goods in larger numbers and more cheaply, serving a larger number of low-income customers. Kenya has companies which have been benefitting from increasing population growth and density in targeting the large numbers of lower and lower-middle income groups – the “bottom of the pyramid”. Their business model is viable because they can serve a multi-million customer base, which has increased by 25% over the last 10 years and which continues to grow rapidly.

Are we thus ahead of golden age of development in Africa? It is possible but there is no guarantee. This will depend on many other factors as well. As the last decades have shown larger population and increased population density are no guarantee of success. However, it seems that the current pattern of population growth is not the main constraint to Africa’s development anymore and can even be a positive force.

Any views?


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Cecilia Dei-Anang
I appreciate your belief that increased population does not necessarily spell more trouble, or the hindrance of development, for Africa. My concern is how quickly the gap of "realistic" education and the adoption of regenerative health, as a lifestyle, in African countries can be closed. In other words, we need capable civil servants to ensure that dying systems of governance are revived to cope with a larger population of older adults. As we say, "..there is strength in numbers..." so I remain the optimist.

I appreciate your belief that increased population does not necessarily spell more trouble, or the hindrance of development, for Africa. My concern is how quickly the gap of "realistic" education and the adoption of regenerative health, as a lifestyle, in African countries can be closed. In other words, we need capable civil servants to ensure that dying systems of governance are revived to cope...

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Development Afrique
A very interesting post, and one worth discussion. It is apt you have also introduced urbanization into the debate. I'm sure as the head of the East African division of the World Bank, you would have seen the impacts on high rates of urbanization and stocks of existing infrastructure. There are cities that were built to accommodate under 500 000, many are now home to three times that figure, and are growing yet. What it does is push up inflation and lowers living standards. Many of the local councils have been unable to keep up with increased population and improve service delivery. I agree it does increase business opportunities with a greater customer base for firms that produce products that are aimed at them, but the biggest issue really does come to can local and national governments invest for this reality? Cities need to be enlarged, infrastructure needs to be added and charges for utilities need to be nominated to consumers. It is a multi variable issue, but one that does deserve wider discussion on this new reality facing the continent.

A very interesting post, and one worth discussion. It is apt you have also introduced urbanization into the debate. I'm sure as the head of the East African division of the World Bank, you would have seen the impacts on high rates of urbanization and stocks of existing infrastructure. There are cities that were built to accommodate under 500 000, many are now home to three times that figure, and are...

Read more
JDesai
It is so refreshing to see a more balanced view on population growth in Africa. I remember a discussion with Hans Binswanger back in 1997 about this and he too held the view that the Asian conclusion did not apply to Africa. In my Mozambique household survey (for the Bank) I collected data on farmers' attitudes towards constraints on agricultural production and land pressure (the prime route for the diminishing marginal productivity rationale of population growth) were not the most important constraint cited by farmers. A whole generation of African demographers has been brainwashed by the "population lobby" in Washington which has held fast to the belief that population growth is bad for development - despite the 1986 NAS report which showed there was no good evidence for this view. Soon after the Coale-Hoover simulation model there were Julian Simon-'s simulation models that showed that the opposite result, but unfortunately all of that got dumped by the political rhetoric of the times (Simon's view became the basis for the Reagan government's turnaround in the population conferences). USAID has kept funding population growth projects for years - with different names RAPDID, OPTIONS, POLICY - because the population lobby in DC refuses to let any other voice be heard. This is not to say that reproductive health and women's empowerment are unimportant aspects of limiting fertility, but that is a separate issue. If you make the case that population growth in countrlies like Kenya (and maybe even Ethiopia) is not the main development problem, then there are so many other countries with much lower population density, and more arable land, where the "population growth is bad for development" argument falls flat. A Boserupian model makes a whole lot more sense in African countries with low population density because small-scale, scattered, subsistence agriculture makes agricultural marketing less viable (fixed costs are too high).

It is so refreshing to see a more balanced view on population growth in Africa. I remember a discussion with Hans Binswanger back in 1997 about this and he too held the view that the Asian conclusion did not apply to Africa. In my Mozambique household survey (for the Bank) I collected data on farmers' attitudes towards constraints on agricultural production and land pressure (the prime route for the...

Read more
AR
I ask myself if African countries, with their often weak institutions can cooperate among themselves and work out and apply a sustainable water management system. Water is going to be a huge issue in the years to come. It has been more than 10 years since Nile Basin countries started negotiating a framework of cooperation and they still can't agree. Without trying to sound prejudiced, the less democratic forms of government usually seen in Africa are rather likely to engage in populist policies or even warfare to avoid addressing this issue. I think population growth is only going to add stress to this issue, rather than relief. Let's hope I am being to pessimistic.

I ask myself if African countries, with their often weak institutions can cooperate among themselves and work out and apply a sustainable water management system. Water is going to be a huge issue in the years to come. It has been more than 10 years since Nile Basin countries started negotiating a framework of cooperation and they still can't agree. Without trying to sound prejudiced, the less democratic...

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Stefano Barazzetta
Thank you for your interesting blog, Mr. Fengler. During the last days I have been surfing the web trying to understand where the "population growth vs. economic growth" debate is heading. Quite curiously, yesterday I have found an article by The Economist that offers 3 reasons NOT to be optimistic about what the outcome od African demographic transition will be. (http://www.economist.com/displaystory.cfm?story_id=14302837) Basically, what The Economist says is: 1-"Even today Africa struggles to provide for its people. Africa today produces less food per head than at any time since independence. If it is to feed its people, Africa badly needs a green revolution" 2-"Africa’s families are under greater strain than Asia’s or Latin America’s were when their demographic transitions first began" 3-"The third reason for pessimism is Africa’s political violence, corruption and weak or non-existent governing institutions. According to the Harvard study, “institutional quality [is vital] for converting growth of the working-age share into a demographic dividend.” Of course ther can't be just one aswer to your question, but I'd like to know your opinion about the above mentioned points. Best, Stefano

Thank you for your interesting blog, Mr. Fengler. During the last days I have been surfing the web trying to understand where the "population growth vs. economic growth" debate is heading. Quite curiously, yesterday I have found an article by The Economist that offers 3 reasons NOT to be optimistic about what the outcome od African demographic transition will be. (http://www.economist.com/displaystory.cfm?story_id=14302837) Basically,...

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Tom Merrick
The optimism expressed in Mr. Fengler’s blog about the benefits of a larger population for Kenya probably stem from comments by such pundits as Fareed Zakaria, who have noted that countries with larger populations (China and India, for example) tend to do better in today’s global economy than small, land-locked ones. The blog reports that the UN’s medium variant projections put Kenya’s population at 85 million in the year 2050. Because of the momentum of Kenya's current demographics, that's a pretty sure bet. The real question is whether Kenya will be better off getting to that level as rapidly as possible, as suggested by the blog's title, and whether that path will be beneficial. Both India and China experienced rapid declines in fertility that created bulges in their working-age populations. These bulges, combined with good economic and social policies, generated a demographic dividend with faster economic growth and poverty reduction. Mr. Fengler hopes to see a similar dividend in Kenya. There are some important “ifs” embedded in this optimism. One is that the population projection on which his optimism is based assumes a fairly rapid decline in fertility. Another is that Kenya will invest adequately in health and education and adopt policies to employ its working-age population boomers productively. Kenya’s fertility decline stalled at around 4.6 births per woman over the last decade. Growing to 85 million population may turn out to be good for Kenya, but how good (if at all) depends on how fast Kenya can provide quality education and reproductive health services for the poor women who do not have them now, as well as the sound economic policies that helped China and India become burgeoning economic powers.

The optimism expressed in Mr. Fengler’s blog about the benefits of a larger population for Kenya probably stem from comments by such pundits as Fareed Zakaria, who have noted that countries with larger populations (China and India, for example) tend to do better in today’s global economy than small, land-locked ones. The blog reports that the UN’s medium variant projections put Kenya’s population...

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Does this mean that Africa is poised to reap the benefits of the demographic dividend then?

Does this mean that Africa is poised to reap the benefits of the demographic dividend then?

thomas winther
I also appreciate the different and somewhat more positive analysis the author provides of population growth in Kenya. However, apart from the comments already provided, it is important not to forget about the scarcity of resources. Unlike Europe, most African countries are not self sufficient in terms of food production. I wonder how the additional millions of Kenyans will be able to feed themselves, let alone if they have to rely on imported products. It would be interesting to turn to some analyses from more populous countries in Africa (Nigeria, Ethiopia, DRC) and investigate to what extent they can attribute their limited socio-economic achievements to population growth.

I also appreciate the different and somewhat more positive analysis the author provides of population growth in Kenya. However, apart from the comments already provided, it is important not to forget about the scarcity of resources. Unlike Europe, most African countries are not self sufficient in terms of food production. I wonder how the additional millions of Kenyans will be able to feed themselves,...

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Josephat Sanda
Personally I am not worried at all with the projected increase in our population in Africa. To me I see a lot of positive things with increased population than negative ones. We meed to take advantage of major breakthroughs in Science and Technology and ensure our continent is connected through ICT and we train a critical mass of world class scientists and ICT experts. We have the resources let us use them prudently. Along the same line, we need to establish special universities for Africa as well as a state of the art 24 hour Pan-Africa Television which needs to be on air before the end of 2016 with more tham 20 channels. Dar Es Salaam Tanzania

Personally I am not worried at all with the projected increase in our population in Africa. To me I see a lot of positive things with increased population than negative ones. We meed to take advantage of major breakthroughs in Science and Technology and ensure our continent is connected through ICT and we train a critical mass of world class scientists and ICT experts. We have the resources let us...

Read more
Wolfgang Fengler
Thanks much for your post. I can't agree more. The broader question - and I don't think a lot of new research has been done on this - is: Will the ongoing demographic transformation with rapid urbanization as well as other factors (e.g. telcom revolution) put more pressure on governments to improve their performance?

Thanks much for your post. I can't agree more. The broader question - and I don't think a lot of new research has been done on this - is: Will the ongoing demographic transformation with rapid urbanization as well as other factors (e.g. telcom revolution) put more pressure on governments to improve their performance?