Repairing the roof when the sun is out

In a world of climate change and headline-grabbing cyclones, El Niño is one of the most unspoken climate risks in East Asia and the Pacific.  This year is not a strong El Niño year – which is even more reason, in my book, to focus on preparedness: You don’t want to be caught off-guard, mid-way through roof repair, when the next storm strikes. 

Sitting back and hoping for the best is not an option either. El Niño is a cyclical event that consistently ravages the region's economies and agricultural sectors with droughts and water scarcity. In turn, La Niña, the cool phase which typically occurs the year after an El Niño event, often brings extensive damage from floods and heavy rainfall. El Niño has occurred eight times since 1980, with the most recent event, from 2014 to 2016, being the most severe, causing billions of dollars in damage to the region.  Moreover, the swings from extreme El Niño to extreme La Niña have been projected to occur more frequently under climate change.¹

As the last decades of progressively more extreme weather have shown, the costs can be devastating for economies and people alike.  

A series of World Bank reports on the impacts of El Niño and La Niña is the first to carry out in-depth economic modeling to calculate changes in agricultural production, gross domestic product, household welfare, and poverty levels from both El Niño and La Niña in East Asia and the Pacific. 

The studies find that El Niño produces losses in GDP, consumption, and income for all households, in all countries, regardless of income level, urban-rural location, or gender. According to the estimations, national GDP losses from El Niño range from just $21 million per event in Lao PDR to $3.3 billion in the Philippines. Consequently, El Niño threatens the region’s poverty reduction and food security advances from the past decade. During a strong El Niño, simulations in the reports estimate that 5.1 million more people will fall into poverty In the Philippines, and 1.7 million more in Vietnam. 

Vietnamese farmer Le Van An described in vivid terms what the 2015-2016 El Niño drought meant for his family in Ca Mau Province: the drought devastated his citrus farm, rice paddy and aquaculture production; it increased the risk of forest fires on his land; and it even affected his transport options as there was not enough water for boats to navigate on dried-up canals. Also in Vietnam, Le Dinh Quoc, a farmer in Quang Binh Province, saw typhoons sweep over his vegetable farm, wreaking havoc with his protection nets and irrigation system, contaminating water sources, and causing him to lose many customers just when food prices increased. His wife had to trek five kilometers away to buy food they normally grow. 

These are not isolated cases. Research shows that when El Niño threatens to raise food prices, women and poor people suffer disproportionately.  By the reports' estimation, consumption losses for the most deprived 20 percent of the population are higher during El Niño than for the wealthiest 20 percent in Cambodia, Vietnam, and Myanmar. Simulations also show that many more people living in female-headed households fall into poverty compared to those living in male-headed households during strong El Niño events in Vietnam and Cambodia.

Besides analyzing losses, our studies also estimate how certain interventions could build resilience to some of these impacts and take advantage of opportunities to rebound from El Niño and La Niña events. As such, the Striking a Balance reports could be essential tools for policymakers in Cambodia, Lao PDR, Myanmar, the Philippines, and Vietnam—the five countries examined in the series.

The good news is that policy interventions and investments can mitigate losses to both farmers and consumers. The five country studies carried out in-depth modeling to predict the impacts of six potential interventions. These include introducing drought-tolerant crop varieties, expanding irrigation, restricting rice exports, storing and distributing grains, and expanding social protection coverage (social transfers). These analyses revealed that introducing all potential policy interventions concurrently is by far the most effective at minimizing economic losses during La Niña, and providing social transfers is the most effective policy for protecting the most vulnerable populations from welfare losses during El Niño.

Regional governments have made inroads in preparing for climate events like floods and other natural disasters, but much more could and should be done to prepare for El Niño and La Niña (known collectively as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, or ENSO). Specifically, countries can:

• Invest in accurate forecasting and Early Warning Systems to help farmers prepare, and develop response measures collaboratively among agencies and institutions for ENSO events.
• Harness the rebound from La Niña events to mitigate damage from El Niño events, which could be done by expanding planting and improving water catchment during La Niña.
• Enhance extension services to expand the use of drought-tolerant seeds, invest in rural infrastructure, and target women in agriculture projects.
• Develop comprehensive national frameworks for managing ENSO risk, and cooperate with other governments in the EAP region on ENSO-related challenges.

Striking a balance among these various policy options, and between El Niño and La Niña management, demands concerted effort. This series of reports offers a comprehensive framework to catalyze collective action and help governments and other national and subnational stakeholders achieve that balance.

¹  Cai, W. et al., 2015: Increased frequency of extreme La Niña events under greenhouse warming. Nature Climate Change, 5 (2), 132-137, doi:10.1038/Nclimate2492.