The Promise and Policy Implications of the 30x30 Initiative for Global Biodiversity Conservation

Biodiversity is declining at unprecedented rates, undermining the foundations of human survival and prosperity. Healthy ecosystems provide food, clean water, and climate stability, yet a major UN assessment warns that one million species face extinction, with current extinction rates up to 1,000 times the natural rate and global vertebrate populations down 69% since 1970. Reversing this trend is central to economic resilience.

The Global 30x30 Commitment

The Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, adopted in December 2022, aims to halt and reverse biodiversity loss. Its “30x30” goal – protecting 30% of land and ocean and restoring 30% of degraded ecosystems by 2030 – seeks to strengthen climate resilience and safeguard the natural systems on which livelihoods depend. But success hinges not only on expanding protected areas; it depends on protecting conservation‑critical species.

A species-centered path to 30x30

We propose a species‑centered, data‑driven method for expanding protected areas nationally. Using over 600,000 species occurrence maps derived from Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) data, we identify 242,414 critical species – endemics and species with very limited habitats – including 165,942 terrestrial and 76,472 marine species – and overlay these with the World Database on Protected Areas to quantify the protection gap.

The results show that 65.5% of critical species are currently protected, while 34.5% remain unprotected. The gap is especially large in the ocean: 57.4% of marine critical species are unprotected, compared to 23.9% of terrestrial species.

Prioritizing cost‑effective expansion

To guide cost‑effective expansion, we developed national priority templates for 138 terrestrial and 160 marine jurisdictions, iteratively selecting areas that maximize the number of newly protected species until full coverage is achieved. This enables flexible, country‑specific pathways that respect economic and political realities.

Global feasibility of full critical species protection

By pinpointing unprotected critical species and the areas that maximize new protections, countries can achieve high‑impact conservation with modest expansions. Globally, full protection of critical species is compatible with roughly 18.0% land and 19.9% marine protection, below the 30% ceiling, though species are unevenly distributed, and some jurisdictions will need more than 30% to achieve full coverage.

We classify countries into three groups:

1. Full protection needs less than 30% of territory.
2. Less than 30% is currently protected, but full protection requires more than 30%.
3. More than 30% is already protected, and full protection requires more.

Among the unprotected critical species, 75.5% could be covered without exceeding 30% limits for jurisdictions; the remainder fall into groups (2) and (3) and would require commitments beyond the 30x30 ceiling.

Balancing biodiversity and economic realities

This clarity supports realistic national target setting and strategic international cooperation. Protection costs vary across countries and tend to rise with income and affordability, meaning a uniform global mandate imposes unequal burdens, especially on low‑income nations. Some countries can secure large biodiversity gains with small expansions; others face steeply rising protection costs.

Consider Mexico, where a large share of unprotected marine species can be safeguarded with modest expansion before costs rise sharply. In Papua New Guinea, both terrestrial and marine protection remain relatively low‑cost up to roughly half of species coverage. These cases illustrate how countries can sequence actions: capture low‑cost, high‑gain opportunities first, then mobilize targeted finance for higher‑cost increments.

Potential Territory Needed to Fully Protect Endemic and Small-Range Species