Unlocking the power of public investment to foster economic growth

Progress toward achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) requires urgent and substantial scaling up of investment. While the estimates of the funding required to bridge these investment gaps in emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) vary across studies, they generally amount to trillions of dollars per year. Thus, UNCTAD’s latest estimate of the aggregate investment gap faced by EMDEs to meet SDGs stands at a staggering $4 trillion per year.

Low-income countries (LICs) have particularly hefty investment needs because of their enormous infrastructure gaps in areas critical for sustainable development. For instance, in the past decade, less than one-third of the population in LICs had access to electricity and basic sanitation (figure 1.A). These countries also face greater challenges in building resilience to climate change and meeting the green transition objectives. By some estimates, an average annual investment of as much as 8 percent of GDP through 2030 is needed to address these issues in LICs—significantly more than in other EMDEs (figure 1.B).
 

Figure 1. Investment gaps in EMDEs

^{Sources: World Development Indicators (WDI), World Bank; World Bank (2022).
Note: AEs = advanced economies; EMDEs = emerging market and developing economies; LICs = low-income countries. A. 2013-23 averages. Bars show percent of the population with access to electricity, minimally adequate drinking water, basic sanitation facilities, and the number of hospital beds available per 1,000 people. B. Estimates of the annual investment needs to build resilience to climate change and put countries on track to reduce emissions by 70 percent by 2050.}

Compounding these challenges, domestic investment—gross fixed capital formation—in EMDEs has been in a prolonged and broad-based slump over the past decade. Average annual growth of investment in EMDEs halved, decelerating from 10 percent per year in the 2000s to just 5 percent in the 2010s (figure 2).
 

Figure 2. Average annual investment growth

^{Sources: Feenstra et al. (2015); Haver Analytics; World Development Indicators (WDI), World Bank.
Note: EMDEs = emerging market and developing economies. Investment growth averages are calculated using GDP weights at average 2010-19 prices and market exchange rates. Sample includes up to 103 economies, of which 68 are EMDEs.}

Public investment can play an important role in mobilizing private capital and facilitating economic growth.

Public investment can be a powerful policy lever to help ignite growth. However, these positive effects are not guaranteed. They critically depend on conducive structural conditions. In particular, new empirical analysis suggests that the effects of public investment depend on government spending efficiency and availability of fiscal space—government’s budget resources that can be spent without jeopardizing a country’s fiscal sustainability and macroeconomic stability. While scaling up of public investment in EMDEs by one percent of GDP can increase output by up to 1.2 percent over five years, on average, in countries with ample fiscal space and efficient government spending the effect is much greater, reaching up to 1.6 percent over the same period (figure 3.A).

What’s more, public investment can play a pivotal role in catalyzing private investment and boosting productivity. In response to an increase in public investment by one percent of GDP, private investment in EMDEs can increase by up to 2.2 percent and total factor productivity by up to 0.8 percent over five years, on average (figure 3.B). This is particularly important for promoting long-run (potential) economic growth in EMDEs, which has slowed sharply and is expected to remain weak over the rest of this decade.
 

Figure 3. Macroeconomic effects of public investment in EMDEs

^{Sources: Adarov, Clements, and Jalles (forthcoming); World Bank.}
Note: Responses of macroeconomic variables to a public investment equivalent to one percent of GDP. Bars indicate peak responses at the 5-year horizon. A. Increase in the level of real GDP relative to the year before the shock, in percent. *** indicates statistical significance at the one-percent level. Large-fiscal space and small-fiscal space responses are based on local projections with the smooth transition function that uses the public-debt-to-GDP ratio as the conditioning variable. High-efficiency and low-efficiency samples are based on the top and bottom quartiles of the public infrastructure efficiency index (IMF 2021). B. Bars show increase in the level of private investment (gross fixed capital formation), potential output, and total factor productivity relative to the year before the shock, in percent. Whiskers indicate 90-percent confidence intervals.

Harnessing the benefits of public investment requires a comprehensive policy effort.

In EMDEs, especially in LICs, public investment efficiency tends to be substantially lower than in advanced economies (figure 4.A). With the government debt escalating to the levels above 60 percent of GDP over the last several years, their fiscal space has also decreased significantly (figure 4.B). To enable public investment and maximize its positive effects, EMDEs need to undertake wide-ranging policy reforms. While specific policy interventions depend on individual country circumstances, three overarching policy priorities are relevant for all EMDEs: expansion of fiscal space, efficiency of public investment, and enhanced global support. The latter is crucial for LICs with deep structural challenges, vast infrastructure gaps, limited fiscal resources and capacity to undertake the needed reforms on their own. Coordinated financial support and technical assistance are both needed to accelerate structural reforms in these countries and help them build robust foundations for sustainable economic growth and development. These policies are discussed in detail in Chapter 3 of the June 2024 Global Economic Prospects report.
 

Figure 4. Fiscal space and spending efficiency

^{Sources: International Monetary Fund; Kose et al. (2022); World Bank.
Note: EMDEs = emerging market and developing economies; LICs = low-income countries. A. Bars show group medians of the IMF (2021) public infrastructure efficiency index. Sample includes 27 advanced economies and 93 EMDEs, of which 15 are LICs. B. Aggregates are computed as weighted averages with nominal GDP in U.S. dollars as weights. Data for the 2020s cover 2020-23. Sample includes up to 153 EMDEs, including 23 LICs.}