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Mongolia is currently experiencing a white "dzud" – a multiple natural disaster consisting of a summer drought resulting in inadequate pasture and production of hay, followed by very heavy winter snow, winds and lower-than-normal temperatures. Dzuds occur when the winter conditions – particularity heavy snow cover – prevent livestock from accessing pasture or from receiving adequate hay and fodder.
Since early January, there has been heavy and continuous snowfall, blizzards and a sharp fall in daily temperatures – dropping below minus 40 degrees Celsius – in 19 out of Mongolia’s 21 aimags (provinces).
This disaster has already caused the loss of approximately three percent of the country’s roughly 44 million livestock and many more losses are expected, given the feeble condition of many animals. Around 35 percent of Mongolia's work force is dependent on herding for a substantial part of their livelihoods and about 63 percent of rural household's assets are livestock; livestock herding accounts for about a third of employment in Mongolia. Food security is also worsening, poverty levels are likely to rise and these factors may cause an increase in rural-to-urban migration. Compounding the problem is the poor condition of many pastures as a result of last year’s drought and overgrazing. In addition heavy snowfall started earlier than usual in October 2009.
Some herders have lost 50-70 percent of their livestock. While they are monitoring the situation closely, the emergency commission is yet to declare the situation a national disaster, because it appears that the losses so far are localized. Some areas are so thickly covered with snow that they are inaccessible by all types of vehicles, while other areas appear to be less affected and remain accessible. If severe cold weather persists and there is more heavy snowfall, this situation could very well become a national disaster.
On January 23-25 our country office team of Erdene Ochir, Natalie Young, Clare Price and I joined the Minister of Food, Agriculture and Light Industry, Mr Badamjunai, on a visit to areas affected by the dzud. We visited two of the hardest hit provinces in central west Mongolia, Arkhangai and Uvurkhangai – which have suffered 24 and 14 percent respectively of the national livestock losses.
Traveling was difficult and our vehicles got stuck in the snow several times. Halfway, we had to leave our vehicle behind and join the Minister's convoy as our car could not make it through the heavy snow. Standing outside in these temperatures even for 10 minutes makes the body numb. It’s hard to feel your hands and toes. This makes us all wonder how the herders and their families cope when they are out herding – every day.
We spent time with herder families and local government officials in both provinces. Herders were trying to cope with the dire situation in different ways. Some families had decided to make one of their "gers" (the traditional round felt dwelling of central Eurasia's nomads also called a "yurt") into an animal shelter and huddle together in the other. Some were trying to burn dung to keep the shelter warm – with little effect. Some were in a state of shock. One woman almost broke down, saying she didn't know what she would do if the family's one remaining milk cow died.
Seven casualties have been reported as a result of the bad weather and two herders froze to death looking for their animals.
In the worst-affected areas, carcasses lay strewn around. In shelters, sheep are stuck together from the previous night, trying to rush out of the pen in hunger perhaps and even some horses have fallen. One family was very worried about the possibility of their only remaining horse dying; without their horse – still the main form of transportation for many rural families – how would they be able to get basic necessities?
So far, the government's response at the national level has been swift. At the county and village levels, however, the response is complicated by the dispersed rural population, large distances and because some villages are completely cut off from county centers by snow. Getting medical supplies, fodder, hay and basic foodstuffs to the herders are the immediate challenges. Emerging shortages of fuel, fodder, hay and transportation vehicles are likely to worsen the situation. Providing medical services, particularly to pregnant women and children, is a continuing challenge.
During spring, safely disposing of carcasses and preventing outbreaks of disease will take center stage.
The emerging disaster highlights the medium-term need to put in place a more sustainable pasture and livestock management system. This is the focus of ongoing assistance from the World Bank and other external partners.
The World Bank is now trying to identify and mobilize resources to help the Government of Mongolia address the emerging disaster. We have met partners, including the United Nations. From the Bank side, we are taking immediate action:
- exploring opportunities to tap into the World Bank's global disaster response fund;
- working within the Bank-financed Sustainable Livelihoods Program to provide support under the pasture risk management and community initiatives funds, components of the project; and
- using the Index Based Livestock Insurance project which covers some 5,600 herders in the country, including in affected areas, to provide some relief to those insured.
Our teams are also working closely with key decision makers and counterparts over the next weeks and months. The aim is to support an appropriate response to short-term needs and continue to deepen medium-term initiatives that reduce herder vulnerability. This can be achieved by improving pasture management and winter preparedness, the transfer and mitigation of risks from a dzud and strengthening the post-disaster response system.
Today, Mongolian herders, who wear boots with upturned toes so as not to damage the land, face the extreme forces of the very nature they have traditionally worshipped. How much of this is Mother Nature and how much is a result of the continuing environmental degradation caused by man? Mongolian elders are saying this is not a dzud of nature, but a dzud of our carelessness and neglect of nature.
But looking to the future, other questions come to mind:
- Can fragile ecosystems like those in Mongolia continue to bear the burden of an ever increasing livestock herd that continues to deplete pastures and threaten long run sustainability?
- What is the balance between allowing a traditional culture to flourish yet ensuring that modern requirements –such as good quality, access to markets, and access to health and services– are provided in good measure to all, including the far flung herder?
Your take?
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This novel approach to sharing knowledge and experiences is much appreciated! Thanks for the breath of fresh air!
Thanks for sharing this video. Wonder if this is also related to climate change? Seems world over similar drastic changes in climate are causing natural disasters to humans and animals.
I spent three months researching rural to urban migration in Mongolia a few summers ago, and learned how important and challenging it is for the country to maintain a viable herding sector that not only preserves Mongolian culture but offers a livelihood to many struggling families. Though much of what I learned made me critical of the World Bank's policies in the 90's, the questions you ask now... seem telling of a different perspective at the Bank - one less ideologically market driven and more pragmatic. To answer your first question: No. The economic significance of the cashmere industry will continue to support the influx of goats, which cause most of the damage to the grazing land. Unless a new and less environmentally destructive industry emerges, I don't see this problem going away. A government tax or restriction on cashmere production might mitigate the problem, but would likely involve a higher price for cashmere. This may mean we would all need to start paying more for our cashmere scarfs - a risky proposition, but one that should be explored further. To answer your second question: This is a difficult question. With the perplexing issue of providing modern amenities versus respecting traditional culture, I think providing choices and options always seems to be the best option. As part of my research, I spent a week living with a herding family that was considering a move to Ulaan Bataar. (Many herding families are considering or already have moved to UB, which makes up for 60% of the population, with many living in the slum like ger districts.) Research from the Asia Development Bank found that families are moving to the City for two primary reasons: (1) as a survival economic strategy and (2) so that their children can receive an education. In my opinion, the priority of the Mongolian government and the World Bank should be to provide the opportunity for herders to meet these two basic criteria. Herding must be made sustainable and innovative methods must be explored and introduced so that the industry is dzud proof. Furthermore, children in the countryside must have the opportunity to receive a modern education. Mongolia is an incredible place and I applaud the World Bank for shedding light on the difficult challenges that the country faces.
Read more Read lessThe World Bank team in Mongolia which is pushing a mining based economic development policy in this fragile ecosystem does not mention in the above article the impact of mining at all. There are several dozen of settlements (soums) in this country where 50-89% of land, including land under homes, range and hay are licensed for mineral exploration and mining. Mining companies are pushing out herder... households regardless of customery law under which they have lived for centuries offering a maximum of $5.000 to relocate them to already crowded rangeland. Those who have not been offered relocation means live right next to mines under coal and desert dust, which make huamn and animal existence impossible. As close as 70km from capital city a uranium exploration project is in its second stage. 170km from the capital city a coal exploration is reported to have completed ots 1st stage successfuuly with promissinf results. 100km from Lake Huvsgul- major fresh water resourse of Asia- license to mine phosphorus is being issued. The economic development policy that is being recommended by WB and donors does take into account the right of the people to life, security and decent living conditions, environmental and biodiversity concerns.
Read more Read lessAppreciate your comments. We will do our best to make sure the work we do is more accessible and easier to share.
Yes, would be the response of my colleague, Tony Whitten, who has written earlier in his blog. Tony Whitten's blog " The 4th Assessment of the International Panel on Climate Change anticipates increased annual temperatures in Mongolia of some 2.5-5.0 degrees Celsius (on top of the nearly 2 degrees Celsius observed over the last 40 years) with increases occurring in both winter and summer. Precipitation... increases in winter months are likely to be higher than any increases over the summer months and in some areas less summer rain is expected. The implications of these and other predicted changes were assessed last year by Jay Angerer, of Texas A&M University, who with colleagues published in the journal Rangelands on ‘Climate Change and Ecosystems of Asia with Emphasis on Inner Mongolia and Mongolia’. "
Read more Read lessMongolia should focus on taking action fast on this issue by providing self-sustaining feeding and reproduction center for their livestock. The question: How do we do it? Alternative energy has part of the solution in this matter. Thanks Diego
A colleague of mine from the World Bank in DC just forwarded me the link to this post so I'm coming late to the conversation. From 2006-2008, I conducted health services research in rural Mongolia, including spending several months in the Mongolian countryside at soum hospitals and at the homes of bag feldshers (bagiin emch). What I found most surprising in my work was how important it was to understand... herding issues in order to work on problems of rural health services. For those not familiar with Mongolia, herders suffered through an unprecedented three zud (dzud) in three consecutive years, from 1999-2002. In addition to zud, drought and sandstorms both have significant negative impacts on herders. These events are highly interrelated and indications are that the frequency of these events is increasing. Echoing Arshad, yes, climate change does play a role in disasters such as this current zud. The vulnerability of herders is acutely connected to human activities - activities of individuals, communities, government institutions, and the private sector. Andrei Marin states that "the impact of these shocks cannot be attributed to bad weather alone", poverty and changes to government assistance also play a major role (A. Marin, Global Environmental Change 2009). Because of the profitability of cashmere, the Mongolian goat population has grown to four times the population during pre-1990 period; as a result Mongolia is now the world's second biggest producer of raw cashmere, representing the 15-20% of the world total. This rapid increase is contributing to land degradation, which in turn creates dangerous underlying conditions for herders and their animals. In response to your questions, what is needed is a set of multiple, *concurrent* strategies to mitigate risk to herders in the medium-term. Why the emphasis on concurrent approaches? (1) As Zach suggests, it is important to provide herders with choices. Concurrent approaches are one path to cultural preservation. (2) There will not be a single, "silver bullet" approach, so concurrent approaches are likely to be more effective. Strategies like the Index Based Livestock Insurance project may be highly effective for mitigating risk, but more needs to be done. From my work in the rural health sector, it became quickly apparent that some of the best improvements can come from leveraging knowledge already embedded within the culture (see Positive Deviance approaches). There is a potential for improved forecasting and early warning systems, especially as mobile phone networks are finally extending beyond soum centers. I am not suggesting the answers, simply saying that more innovative, evidence-based, complementary strategies need to be employed. I'm glad that the World Bank is thinking not only about an immediate response, but also about approaches to reduce herder vulnerability to natural disasters. Thanks for presenting these issues in this format and for presenting translated text in Mongolian. If there is a way for the comments to show up on both Mongolian and English versions (even if not translated), I would recommend it. Би энэ блог дээр манай бодол Монголоор бичээүй. Та асуулттай байвал, надруу коммент бичээрэй. -Жаспаал
Read more Read lessMy first reaction was "Oh no, not again!". But it was also good to see the reality of the disaster (numbers of dead livestock mentioned in reports are hollow, abstract compared to this video...) I have been doing PhD research on climate vulnerability and adaptation in the govi region in 2006/2007. What I can say is that herders do not conceive dzud as unavoidable. They have seen it before, some of... them many times. What is disconcerting and puzzling is the frequency of these extreme events (droughts and dzuds) not allowing herds (and people) to recover. This can be attributed to climate change (increased variability), as is the now rather obvious heating and drying of many parts of Mongolia. Yet, changes in rains seem to be very localised and herders try to avoid droughts and fatten animals by 'following the rains', migrating to where the grass (and water is). But, migration has become increasingly expensive and cumbersome (bureaucratic), especially out of one's sum or aymag. In my opinion (and my informants'), the only way to deal with dzud is to winter far away from it, if one could foresee it, or more likely to have fat animals that can starve for a while while waiting for better days. Hay may be used as an emergency coping (like putting the animals in the ger), but not as a proper adaptation. It takes at least 10 tons of hay for a herd of 150 animals (bog and bodmal) to survive 1 month without pasture. Is there any herder who affords (buying) this? And if they do, do they do it? The government insists on the hay/fodder emergency reserve as the main adaptation against dzud, but time and again this does not seem to work. Even if the fodder would make it to the herds (by helicopter or trucks, etc.) it couldn't possibly save the majority if the dzud lasts. A local hay reserve may be more appropriate but it still may be a false friend- falsely reinsuring some herders. The solution again is to move freely, widely. Resources would be better used in my opinion if transportation would be subsidised during droughts, making sure herds reach the available pastures, get fat and meet the winter in their best physical shape. Today people have to pay a lot of money for renting trucks and paying for fuel to move, in addition to often being charged for using pastures, wells, winter shelters in a different sum/aymag. Many herders take commercial loans to finance these movements, with 30-40% interest per year. The only way they can afford paying back is by selling cashmere. It's easy to understand why the number of goats has increased (incidentally herders are not very keen on goats). That being said, the discussion of goats being more damaging to the environment than other livestock is largely a received wisdom with virtually no research to back it up. Moreover, the whole discussion of 'too many animals' should also be nuanced. There are estimates of more than 40 million livestock in Mongolia in the olden days (Chinggis Khan's time). The research we have this far shows that at least in some places (govi/ desert-steppe) the number of animals has little bearing on the quality of the pasture, while in the khangay it may be more significant. We cannot blame the present tragedy on the careless herders who don't take care of the pastures. Let us just hope the bad weather stops soon and the spring arrives sooner this year, all we need is some warmth (where's the global warming when one needs it?) to turn all this snow into grass. Fingers crossed!
Read more Read lessThanks for your comment, Andrei. As an aside, you may be interested in checking out a post on the effects of goat grazing written some time ago by our biodiversity specialist, Tony Whitten. You can find it here: http://blogs.worldbank.org/eastasiapacific/the-destructive-side-of-goats Cheers