- Andrew Gelman on the “what does not kill my statistical significance makes it stronger” fallacy, and why even Heckman has fallen victim to it. “conditional on statistical significance at some specified level, the noisier the estimate, the higher the Type M and Type S errors. Type M (magnitude) error says that a statistically significant estimate will overestimate the magnitude of the underlying effect, and Type S error says that a statistically significant estimate can have a high probability of getting the sign wrong”
- Let the data talk, but what language should it speak? 25 ways of visualizing the same dataset on life expectancies around the world.
- In a busy week, I missed the talk by Paul Niehaus and related debate on should we just replace everything with cash. Video [apparently only internally available] is now up – jump to around 40 minutes for the start with a nice overview of ongoing cash transfer RCTs that Give Directly is doing.
- The difficulty of figuring out which firms will be high growth, and recommendations for policy – Ramada Nanda in the IZA World of Labor.
- The latest Finance & PSD note has Bilal Zia and co-authors discussing how to improve financial literacy training through supplementary interventions. This is the 40th 2-page note in the series.
- The application deadline for the Gender Innovation Lab’s Fellowship Program is February 13th. Aspiring (pre- or post-PhD) researchers from Sub-Saharan Africa are encouraged to apply.
- On Let’s Talk Development, a round-up of a series of health impact evaluations in Nigeria.
- Miss my policy talk on active labor market policy this week? (slides and video now available). or any of the other recent ones like Florence Kondylis on retargeting investments in agriculture, Uwe Deichmann on revisiting economic geography, and Miriam Bruhn on policies for SME growth? Video and slides are available on the policy talk homepage.
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