- The Atlantic summarizes a new replication of the marshmallow test, “the new study finds limited support for the idea that being able to delay gratification leads to better outcomes. Instead, it suggests that the capacity to hold out for a second marshmallow is shaped in large part by a child’s social and economic background—and, in turn, that that background, not the ability to delay gratification, is what’s behind kids’ long-term success”
- David Evans’ collection of logframes!
- On the All About Finance blog, Claudia Ruiz and co-authors summarize their work in Peru on using psychometric scoring to extend credit to SMEs – using a regression discontinuity.
- Sylvain Chabé-Ferret hates p-values so much he is writing 6 blog posts about it (post 1, post 2, post 3, post 4, others to come). I particularly recommend post 4, which has a nice illustration of the point that when samples are small, if you find a statistically significant effect, it is heavily biased: in his simulation “With N=100, the estimates that are statistically different from zero at the 5% level are 2 to 2.5 bigger than the true effect”.
- Marc Bellemare offers slides from his course on causal inference with observational data.
- Nature news has an update on Universal Basic Income trials around the world – including the dangers of early results “In the 1960s and 1970s, a handful of sites across the United States tested a scheme related to UBI called a negative income tax. In this kind of programme, individuals making below a certain amount receive supplemental money from the government. But after early results from one of the trial sites revealed an increase in divorce rates, politicians nixed the idea as being toxic to the American family.”
- A new destination for your file drawer papers: The Series of Unsurprising Results in Economics (SURE) is a new e-journal of “high-quality research with “unsurprising” findings. We publish scientifically important and carefully-executed studies with statistically insignificant or otherwise unsurprising results. Studies from all fields of Economics will be considered”
- Job Opening: The Busara Center is taking applications for new associates, research specialists and directors
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