· On VoxDev, Crosta et al summarize lessons from a meta-analysis of 115 studies on unconditional cash transfers. “Our meta-analysis results show that both lump-sum and stream UCTs lead to a rise in income and consumption… Recipients consume more of stream transfers and invest more of lump sum transfers, but the distinction is not as stark as we initially expected…. Our analysis, which is primarily based on estimates up to 48 months after transfers, shows that transfer impacts dissipate over time for both lump sum and completed stream programmes… on average: UCTs in our sample encourage, rather than discourage, individuals to seek work (extensive margin labour supply).”
· Sadly even more topical than intended, Ryan Briggs asks in Asterisk magazine “Can we trust social science yet?” – “Much of social science research is of poor quality, and sorting the trustworthy work from bad work is difficult, costly, and time-consuming. But it is necessary. If you were to randomly select an empirical paper published in the past decade — including any studies from the top journals in political science or economics — there is a high chance that its findings may be inaccurate. And not just off by a little: possibly two times as large, or even incorrectly signed.” He discusses issues with replicability, robustness, low power, publication bias – as well as what work seems more credible and some fixes. The Economist discusses what the failure of a superstar student reveals about economics and does note: “The five leading journals have seen just four withdrawals in their combined 570-year history, according to Retraction Watch, a database.”
· ETRM interview with Oyebola Okunogbe about how she got to working on taxation in developing countries, her advice on how to make yourself useful to a government partner, what everyday work looks like for her in the World Bank’s research department, and more…
· Alice Evans on how the trends in wanting to please your parents and in arranged marriages vary across countries and over time and with migration to more liberal countries.
· On VoxDev, Garg, Jagnani and Lyons report on an experiment in Bangladesh on the effects of heat on computer programmer productivity and teamwork – finding that temperatures of 29 C hurt teamwork more than individual performance. They suggest that heat exacerbates coordination challenges, especially in more diverse teams.
· Also on VoxDev, Baird et al (including Berk) discuss their work on group therapy and cash transfers to reduce depression in Uganda: “group therapy …only reduced depression rates among adolescent girls in Uganda in the short-term. Adding a cash transfer to the programme backfired, likely due to the COVID-19 pandemic and associated stressors.”
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