In Beira, Mozambique, Cyclone Idai caused extensive damage to the city's infrastructure, including roads. Photo: World Bank / Sarah Farhat
When we talk about climate change, we often think of melting ice caps or rising seas. But in Eastern and Southern Africa, climate change shows up in the form of daily struggle: crops failing under a relentless sun, families displaced by floods, and communities stretched to their limits. As members of the World Bank’s Social Development team, we’ve worked closely with countries like Madagascar, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and South Africa. We’ve seen firsthand that climate change is not only a story of rising temperatures—it is also a story about people, about inequality, and about resilience.
Our recent World Bank study, Understanding Social Vulnerability for More Effective Climate Strategies: Lessons from CCDRs in Southern and Eastern Africa, highlights a reality that we encountered again and again in our work: vulnerability to climate impacts is deeply shaped by social inequalities. It’s about who lives where, but also who has access to education, who owns land, who participates in decision-making, and who is already struggling to be heard.
More than just weather: The compounding crisis of climate and social inequality
As we researched this report, one pattern became impossible to ignore: the people most exposed to climate hazards are often those already living on the margins. In southern Madagascar, where we supported analytical work under the Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR), we found that more than 95% of the population experiences social exclusion—and these are the same communities hit hardest by droughts and hot winds. In Namibia, we saw similar patterns: areas with exclusion rates of up to 94% are also facing rising temperatures and erratic rainfall. This isn’t a coincidence; it’s a stark illustration of how climate impacts disproportionately strike those least equipped to cope, potentially deepening existing social fault lines.
This reality demands a shift in perspective. Climate action cannot be solely about technological fixes or financial investments. It must center on people. Our research demonstrates that without a clear understanding of how social vulnerability interacts with climate risks, these efforts may fail to protect those who are least able to cope with climate shocks. Indeed, some climate investments could leave vulnerable groups worse off.
The many faces of vulnerability: Recognizing diverse needs
We were especially struck by the diverse forms that vulnerability takes. It has many layers, affecting different groups in distinct ways. The rural poor depend heavily on agriculture and natural resources, making them particularly exposed to changing weather. The urban poor, meanwhile, often live in informal settlements with little infrastructure, facing high risks of flooding and heat stress. In places like South Africa, we saw how race, ethnicity, and a history of exclusion can influence how communities experience climate shocks. Gender, age, and identity also shape people’s exposure and resilience—women, girls, and elderly individuals often bear the brunt, with fewer resources to recover and rebuild. Pre-existing gender inequalities in access to education, healthcare, economic opportunities, and social power can be amplified by climate stressors, increasing women and girl’s risk of gender-based violence, displacement, and negative health outcomes. Marginalized ethnic groups and Indigenous Peoples frequently face systemic discrimination that limits their access to resources, land rights, and decision-making processes, compounding their climate vulnerability.
These are more than demographic categories; they represent individuals and communities whose unique experiences and vulnerabilities must be acknowledged and addressed in our climate responses. And yet, this critical social lens is often missing from climate discussions.
A call for inclusive and just climate action
Our report calls for this to change. We believe climate policies and projects must integrate social vulnerability assessments from the start. This means designing programs that address environmental risks and also social exclusion and inequality. It means investing in ‘just transitions’ that offer real alternatives to communities whose livelihoods are threatened by decarbonization. It also means empowering local communities, supporting them to lead and shape the solutions that affect their lives.
We’re already seeing this approach take shape. In Madagascar, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Mozambique, our team is supporting ongoing forest conservation efforts that include inclusive benefit-sharing and the strengthening of community participation. In South Africa, our work on energy transitions has focused on social inclusion and gender equity, especially in coal-affected regions like Mpumalanga, where livelihoods, dialogue, and dignity are all on the line. These are meaningful steps toward a more people-centered climate response.
The challenge of climate change is immense, but so is the capacity for innovative and compassionate solutions. By understanding who is most at risk and why, we can design more targeted, effective, and equitable climate strategies. We can build resilience against changing weather patterns and against the ingrained inequalities that leave too many behind. Let us embrace this challenge with a people-centered approach, ensuring that no one is left on the unseen frontline of the climate crisis.
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