Global food commodity prices ease amid improved supply conditions and trade concerns

This blog post is part of a special series based on the April 2025 Commodity Markets Outlook, a flagship report published by the World Bank. This series features concise summaries of commodity-specific sections extracted from the report. Explore the full report here.

The World Bank’s food commodity price index edged down in April, extending the 2 percent decline in 2025Q1. Over the first four months of the year, food prices fell 4 percent compared to the same period in 2024. The decline was led by an 8 percent fall in grain prices driven by improved production prospects in major exporting countries. Weaker prices for oils and meals, along with a roughly 3 percent decline in other food categories, also contributed to the overall decline. Persistent concerns about the impact of trade tensions on global demand have added further downward pressure on prices, reinforcing the softening trend.

Global grain supplies set to hit record levels in 2025-26. Global grain supplies are projected to reach a record 3.6 billion tons in the 2025-26 season, marking a third consecutive year of growth—though at a slower pace than the average annual growth of the preceding two decades. Wheat supply has returned to its long-term average growth rate, while maize supply has rebounded after recent setbacks but remains below its historical trend. In contrast, supplies of rice and soybeans are projected to grow at about their long-term growth averages, building on last season’s significantly elevated levels.

Soybean oil drives growth in global edible oil supply. Global edible oil supply is expected to rise by 5 percent in the 2025-26 crop year, marking the fourth consecutive year of expansion and outpacing the long-term trend. This growth is largely driven by record-high soybean production, which is boosting soybean oil output. In contrast, the combined supply of other major oils—including sunflower seed, rapeseed, and coconut oil—declined in 2024-25 and is expected to recover in 2025-26, though by less than the historical average. As a result, the market’s reliance on soybean oil is likely to persist into 2026, with only a partial rebound in alternative oil sources.

Tighter stock levels could heighten grain price volatility. The global stock-to-use ratio—a key indicator of supply relative to demand—for major food commodities is expected to decline in 2025-26, extending a decade-long downward trend. Despite this decline, the ratio remains above the low levels seen prior to 2015. The reduction is particularly sharp for maize and wheat, signaling tighter market conditions, while the ratio is stabilizing for rice and rising for soybeans. These tighter stock levels are likely to make grain prices more sensitive to potential shocks, including adverse weather events and new trade restrictions.

Food commodity prices expected to fall in 2025 and stabilize in 2026. The World Bank’s food price index is projected to decline by 7 percent in 2025 (y/y) and edge slightly lower in 2026. All components of the index are expected to decrease in 2025—grain prices by 11 percent, oils and meals by 7 percent, and other foods by 5 percent. In 2026, prices across these sub-indices are forecast to remain broadly stable. However, the outlook is subject to downside risks stemming from weaker-than-expected global growth and upside risks from extreme weather events. Trade policy uncertainty and biofuel policies also pose additional risks to prices.