Grain prices soften on supply, while edible oils firm on strong consumption

This blog post is part of a special series based on the October 2025 Commodity Markets Outlook, a flagship report published by the World Bank Group. This series features concise summaries of commodity-specific sections extracted from the report. Explore the full report here.

The World Bank’s food commodity price index fell 4 percent in 2025Q3 (q/q) and 5 percent year over year, with prices continuing to decline in October. Easing beverage supplies—especially cocoa and coffee—drove the drop, pushing the beverage index down 10 percent (q/q). Grain prices fell 6 percent, led by rice, which plunged 10 percent in 2025Q3 (q/q) and is now below its 2019 average after surging by more than 50 percent between January 2022 and January 2024. By contrast, oils and meals prices strengthened, with soybean oil and palm oil each up by 7 percent. Rising biodiesel demand—driven by higher admixture mandates in Brazil, plans to raise blending mandates in Indonesia, and the expiration of U.S. tax credits for imported biofuels—supported prices of edible oils. Even so, the decline in soybeans and soybean meal prices tempered the impact of higher food oil prices on the oils and meals index.  

Global grain supply growth is trend-bound. Global grain supply growth is expected to return to its long-term annual trend in 2025-26.  Wheat and maize supply growth in 2025-26 are projected to exceed their long-term averages, with record production for both crops. Rice supply growth will slow in 2025-26 compared with last season but will remain slightly above the post-2000 annual average. Soybean supplies are envisaged to rise only marginally above last year’s record high level.   

Growing edible oil supply meets stronger demand. Global edible oil supply (production plus beginning stocks) is expected to rise by about 4 million metric tons in 2025-26, broadly in line with its historical average, while consumption is projected to increase by nearly 7 million metric tons. As a result, the edible oils market is set to tighten, in contrast with the well-supplied grains market.   

Tighter stock levels could heighten grain price volatility. The global stock-to-use ratio (supply relative to demand) for major food commodities is expected to edge down in 2025–26, extending a decade-long downward trend, though it remains above pre-2015 lows. For wheat, the ratio is stabilizing near 33 percent, with stocks projected at a three-year high. For rice, it is expected to slip slightly to around 35 percent. For maize, it is at 22 percent, the lowest since 2013-14. Tightening stock-to-use ratios could amplify price volatility. 

Food commodity prices are forecast to remain broadly stable in 2026. Following an estimated 6 percent decline in 2025, the World Bank Group’s food price index is projected to remain broadly stable in 2026, reflecting ample global supplies. All components of the food index—grains, oils and meals, and other foods—are expected to remain within 1-2 percent of their 2025 levels in 2026. Downside risks to the forecast include weaker-than-expected global growth and biofuel demand, while upside risks, such as extreme weather events and increasing fertilizer costs, can push prices higher than projected for the forecast period.