The 30x30 Biodiversity Challenge: a data-driven pathway for global conservation

Biodiversity: a foundation for sustainable development

Biodiversity underpins life on Earth and sustainable development. Healthy ecosystems provide food, water, and climate regulation — essential for human well-being and economic resilience. Nature-based livelihoods, particularly for the poor, depend on diverse species and ecosystems. Yet biodiversity is declining at an alarming rate due to land conversion, pollution, overexploitation, illegal wildlife trade, and climate change. Species are disappearing up to 1,000 times faster than natural rates, and global vertebrate populations have declined by 69% since 1970.

Protected areas: the global response

Protected areas are central to biodiversity strategies, having evolved from early forest reserves to complex conservation landscapes. According to the World Database on Protected Areas (WDPA), over 293,000 sites are designated globally as of July 2025. The 2022 Kunming–Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework calls for protecting 30% of land and sea by 2030 (“30x30”). However, expansion alone is insufficient — effectiveness depends on ecological representativeness and management quality.

Gaps in the protected area network

Despite expansion, major gaps remain. Global protection has historically favored areas with well-documented terrestrial vertebrates — mainly mammals and birds — while plants and invertebrates remain underrepresented. Limited habitat data for these taxa have hindered balanced conservation planning. Effective protection requires detailed knowledge of species distributions — information still missing for large parts of the world.

A data-driven breakthrough in global biodiversity mapping

In recent World Bank research, we used machine-based pattern recognition to map distributions for over 600,000 terrestrial and marine species based on millions of occurrence records from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF). Unlike earlier datasets focused on vertebrates, this database provides much greater representation for plants, invertebrates, fungi, and other taxa. Vertebrates account for 8.6% of species, plants 37.8%, and invertebrates 35.5%, marking a major advance in representativeness. The dataset enables countries to identify conservation-critical species, detect protection gaps, and prioritize new protected areas.

Conservation-critical species

We identified 242,414 conservation-critical species — either endemic (habitat in a single country) or restricted to habitats smaller than 625 sq. km. Of these, 165,942 are terrestrial and 76,472 marine. Endemism entails national stewardship responsibility, while limited habitat size signals high potential extinction risk.

National protection status

We assessed 138 countries for terrestrial protection and 160 for marine protection using WDPA data, determining each country’s percent of territory protected; the identities of unprotected critical species; and the additional protected area needed for full coverage of critical species.  Terrestrial coverage rises with the transition from low- to high-income status: low (8.3%), lower middle (19.5%), upper middle (20.0%), high (36.8%). The same transition characterizes marine areas, but at much lower coverage rates (low (0%), lower middle (0%), upper middle (7.7%), high (20.7%).  

Figure 1. Terrestrial protection rates for conservation-critical species by World Bank income group

Overall, countries fall into three categories: (1) full protection of critical species requires <30% of territory, (2) existing protection <30% but full protection requires >30%, and (3) existing protection already exceeds 30%.  Our results show that 32 countries already protect at least 30% of their terrestrial area, but most have limited or no marine protection.

Global protection status

Of 242,414 critical species, 158,814 (65.5%) are currently protected, while 83,600 (34.5%) remain unprotected—39,667 terrestrial and 43,923 marine species. About 75% of unprotected species inhabit countries that can achieve full protection without exceeding 30% territorial coverage. The rest are in countries requiring more expansion.

Regional differences

Regional patterns vary. Nearly all unprotected terrestrial species in Asia, Europe, North America, and Oceania are in category 1 countries, indicating strong potential for progress. Africa and South America face greater challenges, with 88.9% and 54% of their unprotected terrestrial species in category 1 countries. Marine disparities are sharper. In Africa, Asia, Europe, North America, and South America, most unprotected marine species inhabit category 1 countries. Oceania differs: only 14.5% of its unprotected marine species fall in category 1, while 53% are in category 3 -- countries already exceeding 30% territorial protection. This suggests spatial mismatches rather than insufficient territorial coverage. The figure below presents the distribution of current land protection by the World Bank income group.

Implications for the 30x30 target

Our findings provide grounds for both optimism and concern.  Many countries can protect nearly all their critical species with territorial protection rates of less than 30%.  However, several countries already exceed 30% territorial protection but will need additional areas to achieve full protection for their critical species.  Marine conservation remains the most challenging frontier, particularly in Oceania, where regional coordination and adaptive management will be essential. The table below presents our results by region and highlights these cross-regional differences.

Figure 2. Country protection requirements for conservation-critical species by region

Data-driven pathways for national action

We developed national templates which identify a succession of priority areas that extend cost-effective species coverage until full protection of critical species is achieved. The World Bank’s data-driven framework provides a transparent, reproducible planning tool — helping countries locate unprotected endemic or small-habitat species, estimate additional protection needs, and track progress over time.

Policy relevance and the way forward

Achieving 30x30 requires more than expansion of protected territory. It demands integration of biodiversity into development planning, improved species representation, and better data for accountability.  Encouragingly, about three-quarters of critical species can be protected within the 30% threshold. For the rest, targeted expansion, ecological corridors, and stronger management will be key. The World Bank’s approach shows how modern data science can inform biodiversity governance, helping to develop an evidence-based pathway to success for the 30x30 vision.

Our country-level data on current protection percentages, numbers of unprotected endemic and restricted occurrence region species, and the additional area needed for full protection of these critical species can be accessed here on the Development Data Hub.

If you are interested in understanding more about the species’ occurrence region maps, please see Revisiting Global Biodiversity: A Spatial Analysis of Species Occurrence Data from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 10821.

This initiative is part of the Space2Stats Program, supported by a grant from the World Bank’s Global Data Facility and financed by the European Commission’s Directorate-General for Regional and Urban Policy (DG REGIO). Its goal is to enhance data disaggregation, availability, and standardization, while advancing research and insights on subnational development challenges, including climate, biodiversity, clean energy, and gender dimensions.