The impact of sea level rise from global warming could be catastrophic for many developing countries. The World Bank estimates that even a one meter rise would turn at least 56 million people in the developing world into environmental refugees.
Not only do countries need to start planning and implementing measures for adaptation, but the international community and some countries will need to devise an immigration strategy how to deal with populations who will be forced to resettle due to climate change.
Susmita Dasgupta and others estimate in a recent paper that within this century, hundreds of millions of people are likely to be displaced by the sea level rising. Countries have not previously faced a crisis on this scale. The authors have made some calculations by different impacts: population, urban extent, agricultural extent, gross domestic product and wetlands. East Asia and the Middle East and North Africa regions would experience the largest impact. However, not all developing countries will be impacted equally.
Bangladesh will be potentially affected if the sea level rises by 3 meters. According to the model, as the sea level rises, the impact on Bangladesh’s population increases. The displaced population from Bangladesh will go to India. Countries such as Australia and New Zealand can also be affected by the influx from the Pacific Islands’ population displaced because of climate change.
Some migration issues to think about:
- How to cope with the displacement of large populations?
- Some countries will be in better position to absorb influx of populations while others will face serious issues such as India. How much resources will these countries need to manage a large influx? How can xenophobic demonstrations be avoided?
- Will it be possible that resettlement takes place in an orderly way? Will there be a change in immigration policies to accept permanent migration in certain countries?
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Excellent post Sonia and very timely. I think a greater number of policy makers, in developing and developed countries, are beginning to take notice of the link between climate change and migration. Becoming a climate change refugee is a fearful reality for millions of people from Maldives to Papua New Guinea. I recently became aware of a campaign by Small Island States at next week's UN General Assembly... in New York. Out of desperation, small island states will call on the Security Council to address climate change as a pressing threat to international peace and security. They plan to put a Resolution before UN members and it will be interesting to watch reactions from world leaders, particularly from heads of state in developed countries. As President Remengesau of Palau, a small island in the Pacific, humbly articulates: "Palau has lost at least one third of its coral reefs due to climate change related weather patterns. We also lost most of our agricultural production due to drought and extreme high tides. These are not theoretical, scientific losses -- they are the losses of our resources and our livelihoods.... For island states, time is not running out. It has run out. And our path may very well be the window to your own future and the future of our planet".
Read more Read lessFollowing on Thomas' previous comment, it would be good to know the outcome of the Campaigns by Small Island States. I just read the preliminary findings from the EACH-FOR project on Environmentally Induced Migration. This report is part of the Environmental Change and Forced Migration Scenarios (EACH-FOR)research project. The report provides an assessment of the imminent threat due to climate change... that Tuvalu is facing:"With a chain of 9 coral atolls and islets, Tuvalu is not only physically small, but also geographically flat with its peak elevation less than 4.5 meters above sea level. The immediate threat of rising sea levels is unavoidable". Australia and New Zealand have the same migration polices approach for populations who have been displaced due to rising sea levels including citizens from Tuvalu. Australia has not accepted to consider any refugees displace by rising sea. New Zealand has not explicit policy toward these type of migrants. New Zealand only offers a special Pacific Access Category immigration policy that allows migrants from Tonga, Tuvalu, Kiribati and Fiji to go to New Zealand under a labor migration agreement but not for climate change refugees Have there been any response from Australia and New Zealand to the proposed resolution in the Security Council? What are the implications for immigration and security due to climate change effects?
Read more Read lessThanks for your reply Sonia! I attach below the most recent news release from the UN GA where Pacific Island countries were united in their stance on the urgent need to address climate change and the disastrous result that non-action on this issue would have for their people. The Resolution was tabled and it will be interesting to watch the response from neighbouring countries Australia and New Zealand. Heads... of State from Tonga, Samoa and Solomon Islands called for S-G Ban Ki-moon to launch a formal UN investigation of the threat posed; we should know the fate of their call to action in the coming days. I thought the request from the PM of Solomon Islands to strengthen the Small Islands Developing States Unit within the UN was a very reasonable + achievable request... "Climate change threatens international peace, Pacific Island States tell UN debate" 26 September 2008 – Pacific Island States spoke out at the General Assembly today on the issue of climate change, promising to table a draft resolution during the climate session that will call on the United Nations to investigate the threat posed by global warming to international peace and security. Tonga’s Prime Minister Feleti Vaka’uta Sevele used his address to the Assembly’s annual General Debate to urge other Member States outside the region to show their support for the draft resolution. “The prospect of climate refugees from some of the Pacific Island Forum countries is no longer a prospect but a reality, with relocations of communities due to sea level rise already taking place,” he said. “Urgent action must be taken now.” The resolution is expected to ask Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon to commission a report on climate change and security, and to invite the Security Council and the General Assembly to work together on possible recommendations to deal with any problems identified. Speaking earlier today, Tuila’epa Lupesoliai Sailele Malielegaoi, Prime Minister of Samoa, urged countries to convert the commitments they made about greenhouse gas reduction – whether during the landmark summit in Bali last year or elsewhere – into reality. “Only through selfless and concerted efforts by all countries led by the major greenhouse gas emitters can we have a fighting chance of lessening the destructive impact of climate change,” he said, adding that it also enhances the chances of a credible agreement beyond the current Kyoto Protocol. Solomon Islands’ Prime Minister Derek Sikua said he feared that the magnitude of climate change has already outgrown the existing capacity of the UN system to respond. Many smaller countries were being left to fend for themselves against the impact of global warming, as regional groups and other organizations charted their own course. The Prime Minister called for the UN’s Small Islands Developing States Unit to be strengthened so that it can help countries, such as those in the Pacific Ocean facing rising sea levels, with special needs.
Read more Read lessHello, I think that displacement isn't a good idea however this is most obvious. Perhaps a good solution would be to build strong dikes along the coast that are disastrously low. The construction of housing at a sufficient elevation is also possible, taking into account possible impact of sea level.