Fooled by success

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Amit Varma is on form at the Indian Economy blog:

Consider this experiment: you are a punter, and you get a letter from me saying that I have the ability to forecast the result of all cricket matches, and if you pay me Rs. 10,000, I shall tell you what will happen in the next game so that you can make a killing — perhaps in crores — by betting on it. I invite you to pay me Rs 10,000 for the results of the next game. I promise you that I shall return the money if my prediction turns out to be incorrect.

Guess what happens next.

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