The ultimate success criterion for credit guarantees (as for other government interventions) is whether they increase access and/or reduce costs for constrained enterprises. Methodologically, that is a difficult question, as proper identification of the causality is a challenge.
Several papers at the World Bank's Partial Credit Guarantee Schemes conference are addressing the issues. One paper finds that participants in mutual guarantee schemes in Italy pay lower interest rates than non-participants, but are also less likely to default. Peer evaluation and monitoring seems to play a role, similar as in the microfinance group lending schemes.
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