So now the drama really starts ratcheting up inside and out of the
Bella Center in Copenhagen. Outside in the kind of biting cold that
reminds you of standing (before stadium seating) in a fourth division
football match on a Saturday afternoon as a kid, thousands of people
are massing to march on the center - they say 50,000 and on the TV
screen it looks like it could be.
Inside, the entrenched positions see no sign of budging yet and the
negotiations are poised for the second week, normally characterized by
agreement only at the eleventh hour. (By the way: if you want to know
what's going on here, blow by blow, then read the Earth Negotiations
Bulletin (from the safety of your warm comfortable abode) - an
institution of international sustainable development for 20 years, it
is as ever indispensable (disclosure: i sometimes used to help them
out)).
But part of the physics of negotiation also involves momentum. And
here there are signs of concern at the international level. One way to
look at what is going well here, compared with years gone by, is that
national action is under way. The stories of success will inspire the actions
of middle income and other growing economies - the Koreas, Mexicos,
Brazils, South Africas of this world, where national action will lead
to progress and financing will come from different sources.
Internationally, the financial discussions are stuck: there is no money
and, yes, the fast start money is being stitched together (because there
is no money) and the long term financial commitments look precarious
Soros suggested using SDRs for climate activities:
a neat idea on first glance because it would allow already allocated
funds to be used when there is little other funding lying around, yet
SDRs are the liquidity needed if crises occur and as such need to be
held in reserve. But, credit should be given for out of the box
thinking, because the tracks we are on now seem to leading not very
far, not very fast.
This begs two questions: how can we pursue the compacts we need at
the international level when the processes we have today seem so wholly
inadequate or inappropriate. And then here in Copenhagen as a very wise
friends put it today, "what is the best way to fail?"
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