The global forecast for oil production in 2019 has been repeatedly revised downward over the last year and a half amid weakening demand for oil. Growth in demand is now around 1%, or 1 million barrels per day—the weakest growth rate since 2012, according to the October 2019 Commodity Markets Outlook. Oil prices are projected to average $60/bbl in 2019 and are forecast to weaken to $58/bbl in 2020, $7/bbl lower than the previous forecast. The downward revision reflects the weaker outlook for global growth and therefore for oil demand. Oil consumption growth is expected to increase slightly next year at a level usually associated with global downturns. If economic growth deteriorates further, oil demand could be substantially weaker, says the report.
Adapted from the October 2019 Commodity Markets Outlook