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Vietnam’s long-term growth performance: A comparative perspective

Axel van Trotsenburg's picture
Also available in: Tiếng Việt


Vietnam has achieved remarkably high and inclusive GDP growth since the late 1980s. GDP growth per capita increased three-and-a-half-fold during 1991-2012, a performance surpassed only by China. The distribution of growth has been as remarkable as its pace: the bottom 40% of the population’s share in national income has remained virtually unchanged since the early 1990s, ensuring that the rapid income gains got translated into shared prosperity and significant poverty reduction.

GDP growth, however, has been operating on a lower trajectory since 2008. This has led to questions regarding the sustainability of the growth process, and, with it, Vietnam’s ability to bounce back to about 7-8% per capita growth. Analysts have voiced concerns over declining total factor productivity growth and growing reliance on capital accumulation. Moreover, a number of competitiveness issues routinely get raised by private investors, including: a widening skills gap, limited access to finance, relatively high trade and transport logistics costs, an overbearing presence of the SOEs, and heavy government bureaucracy that makes it difficult for businesses to operate in Vietnam.

Tiềm năng tăng trưởng của Việt Nam: Góc độ so sánh

Axel van Trotsenburg's picture
Also available in: English


Kể từ cuối thập kỷ 80 của thế kỷ trước, Việt Nam đã có tốc độ tăng trưởng kinh tế cao với lợi ích bao trùm. GDP bình quân đầu người tăng 3,5 lần trong giai đoạn 1991-2012 — chỉ sau Trung Quốc. Cùng với tốc độ tăng trưởng, phân bố tăng trưởng cũng là một thành tích rất đáng ghi nhận: phần thu nhập quốc gia dành cho nhóm 40% dân nghèo nhất hầu như không thay đổi kể từ đầu thập kỷ 1990 tới nay, điều này đảm bảo rằng tăng trưởng kinh tế được phân phối cho mọi tầng lớp và giảm nghèo một cách đáng kể.

Tuy nhiên, kể từ 2008, tăng trưởng GDP đã đi theo một quỹ đạo thấp hơn. Qua đó đã nảy sinh một số câu hỏi về mức độ bền vững của tăng trưởng và liệu Việt Nam có thể khôi phục mức tăng GDP bình quân đầu người 7-8% hay không. Các nhà phân tích quan ngại về xu thế giảm tăng trưởng năng suất nhân tố tổng hợp và mức độ phụ thuộc ngày càng nhiều vào tích tụ vốn. Thêm vào đó, các nhà đầu tư tư nhân cũng thường xuyên nêu các vấn đề liên quan đến năng lực cạnh tranh như kỹ năng ngày càng thiếu, khó tiếp cận vốn, chi phí thương mại và kho vận tương đối cao, độc quyền của các doanh nghiệp nhà nước và bộ máy hành chính cồng kềnh gây cản trở hoạt động của doanh nghiệp.

Việt Nam phải đối mặt với những thách thức gì khi tiến tới bảo hiểm y tế toàn dân?

Aparnaa Somanathan's picture
Also available in: English



Trong tuần này, Việt Nam sẽ chủ trì tổ chức Hội nghị các Bộ trưởng Y tế ASEAN lần thứ 12 tại Hà Nội. Bảo hiểm y tế toàn dân  (BHYTTD) sẽ là một trong những chủ đề chính của hội nghị, cả trong các diễn đàn chính thức và không chính thức, giữa các nhà hoạch định chính sách của khu vực. Dù thế nào thì mục tiêu tiến tới BHYTTD, được hỗ trợ bởi việc tăng chi tiêu của nhà nước để trợ cấp cho các đối tượng tham gia bảo hiểm, cũng là một trong những nội dung có sự thống nhất cao nhất trong chính sách y tế của khu vực ASEAN hiện nay.
  
Có thể nói, Việt Nam đã phần nào đi trước khu vực nhờ tăng đều độ phủ bảo hiểm y tế trong suốt những năm 1990. Với Luật Bảo hiểm Y tế ban hành năm 2008, Việt Nam đã hợp nhất các chương trình bảo hiểm y tế hiện hành, áp dụng chính sách một bên chi trả duy nhất, trước cả một số nước lớn trong ASEAN khác như Inđônêxia và Philipin. Hiện nay, không những có tới 68% dân số đã tham gia bảo hiểm y tế mà nhà nước cũng đã đầu tư đáng kể vào cơ sở hạ tầng bên cung và nâng cao năng lực nguồn nhân lực y tế trong nước để đáp ứng nhu cầu khám chữa bệnh ngày càng tăng của người dân.

What lies ahead in Vietnam’s path towards Universal Health Coverage?

Aparnaa Somanathan's picture
Also available in: Tiếng Việt



This week, Vietnam will host the twelfth ASEAN Health Minister’s Meeting in Hanoi. Universal Health Coverage (UHC) is likely to take center-stage in discussions, both formal and informal, among the region’s policymakers. After all, the drive for UHC, backed by large increases in public spending to subsidize coverage, is one of the most uniting features of health policy in the ASEAN region today.

Vietnam is somewhat forerunner in the region, having steadily expanded health insurance coverage through the 1990s. Through the Law of Social Health Insurance in 2008, Vietnam consolidated existing health insurance programs and adopted a single payer design ahead of some other larger ASEAN countries such as Indonesia and the Philippines. Today, not only is 68% of the population enrolled in health insurance but significant public sector investments have also been made to the supply side infrastructure and health human resource capacity of Vietnam in order to meet the growing demand for health care.

Picture (not) perfect – a look behind the scenes of Small Island Developing States

Denis Jordy's picture
Stunning photos we usually associate with the Pacific Islands often overlook the reality for many who live there. Faced with natural hazards and remoteness, they are some of the most vulnerable nations in the world.
Stunning photos we usually associate with the Pacific Islands often overlook the reality for many who live there. Faced with natural hazards and remoteness, they are some of the most vulnerable nations in the world.



A picture can tell a thousand words but the stunning photos we usually associate with the Pacific Islands often overlook the reality for many who live there. Faced with natural hazards such as cyclones, droughts and earthquakes alongside geographical remoteness and isolation, Pacific Island countries, which make up over a third of small island developing states (SIDS), are some of the most vulnerable nations in the world. 
 
Already this year the Pacific region has been hit by two major disasters; Tropical Cyclone Ian in Tonga in January, followed by flash flooding in Solomon Islands in April. Both disasters had devastating impacts on the economy and livelihoods of local communities. Situated within the cyclone belt and Pacific Ring of Fire, earthquakes, tsunamis and cyclones are frequent. Around 41 tropical cyclones occur each year across the region as well as numerous earthquakes and floods.
 

Living with crime and violence in Papua New Guinea

Laura Keenan's picture
Crime constrains investment and growth, and the costs ripple throughout society.
Crime constrains investment and growth, and the costs ripple throughout society.


Last month I was interviewing participants in the World Bank’s Urban Youth Employment Project in Port Moresby, talking about the challenges that PNG’s young people face in finding work.

One issue that came up repeatedly was mobility – or the lack of it: the basic ability to travel to and from the workplace. It is no secret that parts of Port Moresby are dangerous and crime is high. There are regular stories of carjacking but public transport is also a huge risk – an issue which disproportionately affects workers coming from poorer parts of the city.

The HR Manager told me casually how she was stabbed at a bus-stop and her billum (bag) stolen; one of the reception staff was stabbed twice on a bus getting home from work. The young woman we were profiling was held up on a bus at gunpoint in the area of Two Mile.

Fighting climate change: What I Learned from WBG President and 22 Vietnamese Youngsters

Giang Huong Nguyen's picture
Also available in: Tiếng Việt
Jim Yong Kim to Vietnamese Youth: What's Your Plan to Tackle Climate Change?
World Bank Group President Jim Yong Kim listened to a group of more than 20 young Vietnamese environmental activists sharing their initiatives on fighting climate change. He challenged them to work together to build a bigger plan to both adapt to climate change and tackle the issue that Vietnam's carbon intensity will increase 20%.



“How you can live and adapt to climate change… How you can together tackle the issue of carbon intensity of Vietnam?”World Bank Group President Jim Yong Kim challenged 22 young Vietnamese environmentalists, including myself, at a roundtable discussion on the impacts of climate change to Vietnam during his visit to the country. Around that time, Vietnam and some neighboring countries were hit by typhoon Rammasun. It could have been a coincidence, but it gave us a sense of urgency and how serious the issue of climate change is.

Philippines: Why We Need to Invest in the Poor

Karl Kendrick Chua's picture
A fish vendor waits for customers in his stall in Cebu City. According to the latest Philippine Economic Update, pushing key reforms to secure access to land, promote competition and simplify business regulations will also help create more and better jobs and lift people out of poverty. ​(Photo by World Bank)



In my 10 years of working in the World Bank, I have seen remarkable changes around me. In 2004, Emerald Avenue in Ortigas Center, where the old World Bank office was located, started to wind down after 9 PM.  Finding a place to buy a midnight snack whenever I did overtime was hard. It was also hard to find a taxi after work.

Today, even at 3 AM, the street is bustling with 24-hour restaurants, coffee shops, and convenience stores, hundreds of BPO (Business Process Outsourcing) employees taking their break, and a line of taxis waiting to bring these new middle class earners home. Living in Ortigas Center today means that I also benefit from these changes.

Refleksi Reformasi Guru di Indonesia

Andrew Ragatz's picture
Also available in: English


Pada tahun 2005, saya merasa beruntung berada di Indonesia saat upaya reformasi guru dimulai. Parlemen Indonesia menetapkan sebuah undang-undang komprehensif mengenai guru disertai agenda yang besar. Program utamanya adalah sertifikasi yang bertujuan meningkatkan kesejahteraan sekaligus kualitas guru secara signifikan. Guru yang telah menerima sertifikasi akan menerima gaji dua kali lipat. Syarat sertifikasi adalah memiliki gelar S1 serta kompetensi untuk memberikan pendidikan yang berkualitas.

Semua bahan untuk melakukan perubahan besar sepertinya tersedia. Regulasi yang bagus, dan upaya yang dipimpin seseorang yang mengepalai sebuah direktorat baru di Kementerian Pendidikan dengan mandat khusus untuk meningkatkan kualitas guru dan staf pendidik.

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