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East Asia & Pacific is facing some great development challenges today: urbanization, protection of the environment, the need to find renewable energy sources and many others. This site wants to create a conversation around those important issues. More »

China grew faster than its target and most projections in 2009 – what are the key takeaways?

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China’s economy grew 8.7 percent in 2009. This was more than the 8 percent target, despite the global recession that caused global output excluding China to fall about 3 percent. China’s growth outcome is substantially higher than projections made in early 2009. For instance, in our  World Bank quarterly economic update (of which I am the lead author) we projected 6.5 percent GDP growth and some other forecasts were even lower (see Figure 1).

How did these forecasts come about, and what lessons we can draw from the experience of China’s growth in 2009? I cannot speak for my colleagues at the World Bank, let alone for other economists. But, all in all, while I have learned important lessons, I am not sure how differently I would see and do things if again presented with a situation like we were in a year ago.

Зуд: Байгалийн энэхүү гамшиг нь Монголын мал аж ахуйд болон малчдын амьжиргаанд хүндрэл учруулж байна

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(Originally published in English.)

Өнөөдрийн байдлаар Монгол Улс ихээхэн хэмжээний цас, хүйтэн хавсарсан цагаан “зуд” хэмээх байгалийн гамшигт нэрвэгдээд байна. Энэ нь зундаа ган гачигтай байснаас бэлчээрийн хомсдолд орж, өвс тэжээл хангалттай базаах боломж олгоогүй улмаар өвөлдөө цас их орж, салхилан цаг агаар хэвийн хэмжээнээс доогуур болж хүйтний эрч эрс чангарсантай холбоотой.  Бэлчээрийг үлэмж их цас дарж, мал сүрэг бэлчих аргагүй болж, өвс тэжээлээр гачигдан зутрах зэрэг өвлийн улирлын нөхцөл байдалд зуд болдог.

Dzud: a slow natural disaster kills livestock --and livelihoods-- in Mongolia

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(Available in: монгол хэл.)

Mongolia is currently experiencing a white "dzud" – a multiple natural disaster consisting of a summer drought resulting in inadequate pasture and production of hay, followed by very heavy winter snow, winds and lower-than-normal temperatures. Dzuds occur when the winter conditions – particularity heavy snow cover – prevent livestock from accessing pasture or from receiving adequate hay and fodder. 

Should Malaysia's new growth model favor manufacturing or services?

As Malaysia redefines its growth strategy, the question of which sector to promote has been a subject of ongoing debate. Some have argued that the strategy should emphasize manufacturing – and preferably high-tech manufacturing – as innovation activity is most forthcoming in this sector. Others have countered that services are key, as the typical economic structure of an advanced economy is oriented towards services. Tradable services are also fast becoming an engine of growth.

Mongolia: Crisis increases demand for corporate governance

The President of Mongolia, Elbegdorj Tsakhia, sat at the table behind a Greek salad. We were at a lunch hosted by the Corporate Governance Development Center, an NGO which brings international best practices in corporate governance to Mongolia. Also present were the Minister of Education, the Director of the Financial Regulatory Commission (FRC), the Deputy Chief of Party of the USAID-funded Economic Policy Reform and Competitiveness Project (EPRC), which helped to establish the Center with the Institute of Finance and Economics, and CEOs of leading Mongolian firms. Several International Finanace Corporation (IFC) clients were among them.

The salad looked delicious, but it would have to wait. President Elbegdorj was speaking about the role of corporate governance in Mongolia. "Corporate governance is important for Mongolia's competitiveness," he said. I was delighted. I've been waiting a long time for this moment.

One year later: China’s policy stimulus results in strong 2009 economic growth, reason for optimism

This time last year, when the dismal 6.8% GDP growth data for China in the 4th quarter of 2008 came out, David Dollar, the former country director of China in the World Bank, asked in his blog whether one should interpret the data positively or negatively. (In other words, was the glass half full or half empty?) Compared with this uncertain situation a year ago, the Chinese economy is now in much better shape. Newly released data shows that the average GDP growth in 2009 is 8.7% – well above the most upbeat forecast made in early 2009. The growth even accelerated to double digits in the 4th quarter of 2009, standing at 10.7% (figure 1).

From Sumatra to Haiti, the importance of increasing government capacity in responding to disaster

In Indonesia, a national disaster management agency was set up in 2008 to serve as a guardian of disaster risk management. The agency's important role was clear in the aftermath of a West Sumatra earthquake in 2009.

The unprecedented earthquake in Haiti and the massive destruction it caused reminds me of the significant destruction that resulted after the Aceh tsunami five years ago. The Haiti earthquake hit the country’s capital, Port-au-Prince, which is the center of government and economic activities.

The combination of enormous damage on facilities and infrastructure, the collapse of the national government function, and the lack of preparedness and experience make it inevitable that the people of Haiti will rely on the international community for guidance and coordination. This situation is different from what happened in Aceh after the 2004 tsunami. At that time, although the devastation was also severe and affected a large part of Aceh, it did not affect the country’s capital city. The Government of Indonesia, which is located in Jakarta, remained fully functional and was able to coordinate the emergency response, disaster assessment, and reconstruction effort that followed. The government was also able to set up reconstruction agency in only a matter of months after the disaster.

State-owned enterprises in China: How big are they?

In China's industrial sector, the shrinking share of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) is evident. This is due in part to the stronger growth of non-government-owned enterprises.

When communicating with my friends outside China, their misconception of Chinese State-Owned Enterprises (SOE) always surprises me.  It seems that although Chinese SOEs play a major role in the Chinese economy, they continue to remain mysterious to most outsiders. For some people – even some long-time observers of China – Chinese SOEs are best described as dying dinosaurs that continuously absorb resources from the economy but produce little economic value. However, this impression is far from the case in nowadays.

That’s why I feel obliged to write something about the reality of this myth. In this blog post and the following ones, I’ll try to profile Chinese SOEs with data mainly from industrial sector, addressing questions regarding their size, profitability, leverage, and so on, hopefully presenting a clear picture to readers.

Today, I will tackle the question of how big are Chinese SOEs. This question can be rephrased in two different ways. First, how big are Chinese SOEs as a whole in the Chinese economy? Second, how big are individual SOEs compared with non-SOEs? Starting with the former question:

Haiti earthquake: Out of great disasters comes great opportunity

A collapsed building in Port-au-Prince. Photo by IFRC/Eric Quintero under a Creative Commons license.

The scale and magnitude of the earthquake in Haiti has shocked, saddened and horrified us all. But there is a silver lining to this great tragedy. Looking back in history, great natural disasters are often a catalyst for huge, positive change.

The great fire of London in 1666 led to a massive rebuilding effort, better building regulations and, in the end, a safer, cleaner city that maintained the medieval street plan that is still visible, to some extent, today. The Wall Street Journal has an interesting discussion of how the impact of the 1755 earthquake in Lisbon led to the creation of a new metropolis with earthquake-proof buildings, wide thoroughfares and a sewer system. The massive reconstruction financing required after the great fire of Copenhagen of 1795 led to the creation, in 1797, of Kreditkassen for Husejere i Kjøbenhavn (The Credit Association of Copenhagen homeowners), the precursor of modern mortgage markets.

Largest ever World Bank loan to Vietnam signals country's swift path to middle-income status

Last month, Vietnam and the World Bank signed the credit agreement for a loan that is historic for the rapidly developing country. Not only is it the largest ever World Bank loan to Vietnam, but it is also the first from its International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) – meaning the country is a step closer to reaching middle-income status by this year.

A few days earlier, I caught up with Martin Rama, the Bank’s lead economist in Hanoi, and asked him a few questions. In a short video interview (embedded below), Rama explains why this $500 million loan, meant in part to strengthen public investment in Vietnam, is so significant to the country.

"This is a country that has had 20 years of spectacular growth without a substantial increase in inequality – with one of the fastest reductions in poverty that we have ever documented. There is much for Vietnam to be proud of."


  
Read more about the development policy loan to Vietnam here.