It is projected that by 2060, Uganda’s population will reach 104 million – more than double the current 46 million – and 70% will be of working age. This presents both an enormous opportunity and a challenge for the country. With the right skills, health and access to basic infrastructure, the growing working-age population will be able to access better job opportunities, contributing to growth and productivity. But for this to happen, the government needs to strengthen policies and commitments to investing in the human capital of its young population now.
Our report “Tackling the Demographic Challenge in Uganda,” analyzes Uganda’s demographic trends and its implications for the education, health and basic infrastructure sectors. In particular, the analysis shows the sizeable effort that will be needed to allow the growing young population to attain its productive potential.
The current status quo limits the human capital accumulation of young Ugandans, constraining their income-generating ability. Expanding access and improving the quality of basic services, will be crucial if Uganda wants to move to a development path that ensures higher shared prosperity in the long term. This could be done in line with the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) for education, health and access to basic infrastructure, which entails universal secondary school enrollment, near universal health coverage (90%), and universal access to electricity, water and improved sanitation. In parallel, the increasing urbanization of the Ugandan population also heightens the imperative for urban planning, and basic urban infrastructure.
If Uganda continues with a ‘Business as Usual’ approach, simply maintaining current access rates and quality of services over the next decade, the country will be far from the SDGs 2030 targets, particularly in education and sanitation (Figure 1). Reaching the goals over the next ten years will require considerable improvements over the current access rates, with significant implications for the inputs that will be necessary to provide education, health, electricity, water and sanitation. For example, over the next ten years, a five-fold increase in the number of secondary school teachers, 41 additional general hospitals, and more than a three-fold increase in the number of electrical connections (from grid or solar) are required (Figure 2). Moreover, the gap will widen over time. By 2060, over 400 thousand secondary school teachers and 173 additional general hospitals will be required and over 100 million people will need access to electricity. Taking stock of the physical and human resources is an important exercise for the government and other stakeholders as they formulate medium term investment plans and policy actions.
| Figure 1. Access rates to basic public services under the current ‘Business as Usual’ scenario versus ‘Sustainable Development Goals’ for 2030 |
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| Source: World Bank (2020). Tackling the Demographic Challenge in Uganda |
Figure 2. Examples of the increased inputs necessary for Uganda to increase access rates as per the 2030 SDG
a. Number of secondary level teachers required (thousands) and additional general hospitals required (compared to the number of hospitals in 2019)
b. Persons with access to electricity (millions)
Source: World Bank (2020). “Tackling the Demographic Challenge in Uganda.” Note: These figures refer to the inputs required under the medium-fertility scenario.
The fiscal effort associated with improving access and quality to education, health and basic infrastructure will also be considerable. For education and health, projections estimate a doubling of the average annual budgets over the next 10 years to reach the SDGs and more than a tripling of the expenditure on infrastructure investment (for electricity, water and sanitation combined), as seen in Figure 3. By 2060, the projected annual cost of primary and secondary education will be more than $2.2 billion, the cost of public health services will be more than $3.1 billion, and sanitation alone is expected to cost approximately $1.8 billion. These projections highlight the importance of increasing the efficiency of public spending, while also bringing in more private investment.
Under a low-fertility rate scenario (0.5 lower fertility rate), fewer people demand education, health and access to basic infrastructure, and the fiscal costs would be reduced substantially. Under the low-fertility scenario, the SDGs could be achieved with cumulative savings of $9.5 billion in education, $6 billion in health, and $5 billion in infrastructure investment between now and the year 2060 (Figure 3), with savings already being generated over the next decade. Lower fertility can be attained by multi-sectoral policies (including the education, health, and social protection sectors, among others) and, particularly, by enhancing the agency of girls and women.
Figure 3. Fiscal effort required for basic education, health and infrastructure services in Uganda as per the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals
a. Projected average annual cost of primary and secondary education for the medium- and low-fertility scenarios, (millions of USD)
b. Projected average annual cost of providing public health services for the medium- and low-fertility scenarios, (millions of USD)
c. Projected average annual cost of providing sanitation services for the medium- and low-fertility scenarios, (millions of USD)
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