Who on earth is using generative AI?

Picture this: You're sitting at your desk, staring at a crucial email to a high-profile client. The words aren't quite flowing, and the pressure is mounting. Instead of agonizing over every sentence, you turn to ChatGPT. "Hey ChatGPT, can you help me polish this email?" you type, and within seconds, a refined version appears on your screen. 

Scenes like this are playing out countless times across the globe as generative AI (GenAI) takes the world by storm. Since the launch of ChatGPT, GenAI has seamlessly woven itself into the daily routines of approximately half a billion people worldwide. It's akin to a digital gold rush, with users from 209 countries and 1 in 8 workers globally jumping on the bandwagon. The potential of GenAI to supercharge productivity and reshape the economy and society is nothing short of mind-blowing.

Our recent working paper delves into this remarkable phenomenon of GenAI, using novel data from website traffic and Google Trends. We aimed to illuminate how fast GenAI is spreading, who's using it, and how it's changing our online habits. Here’s what we found:

The Meteoric Rise of GenAI

The rise of GenAI has been astounding. As of March 2024, the top 40 GenAI tools we tracked received nearly three billion monthly visits from hundreds of millions of users. ChatGPT stands out as the undisputed leader of this boom, capturing over 82.5% of the total traffic, with over two billion global visits and 500 million users each month. 

The pace of adoption is particularly noteworthy. ChatGPT set a record as the fastest-growing consumer software in history, reaching 100 million users just 64 days after the release of the updated ChatGPT3.5 in May 2023. It's not alone in this surge; Baidu’s AI chatbot, “Ernie Bot,” surpassed 200 million users within just eight months of its launch. 

However, despite these impressive numbers, traffic to GenAI tools still lags behind the most popular websites. There are signs of market saturation and intensifying competition. For instance, ChatGPT gets less than two percent of Google’s daily traffic. Moreover, the growth of several GenAI tools, including ChatGPT, has plateaued since mid-2023, indicating that the initial novelty may be wearing off and competition is heating up. Looking ahead, the future growth of GenAI will likely depend on pushing the boundaries of AI capabilities and discovering innovative ways to integrate these tools into various applications. As the landscape evolves, staying ahead of the curve will require continuous adaptation and exploration of new possibilities in the realm of AI.

_{Figure 1. ChatGPT set a record as the fastest-growing consumer software in history, reaching 100 million users just 64 days after the release of GPT-3.5. However, its plateaued growth since mid-2023 suggests potential market saturation and increasing competition. Data source: Semrush.}

GenAI’s Early Adopters: Who’s Using It and How?

The profile of GenAI users provides valuable insights into its strengths and the challenges it faces. Primarily, these tools are used by younger, highly educated males. Only a third of ChatGPT users are women, significantly lower than Google (48% female) and Wikipedia (52% female). Among users, those aged 18 to 24 are the most active, particularly with video GenAI tools. Nearly half of chatbot users hold a college degree, surpassing the educational level of Google’s user base. 

Interestingly, ChatGPT exhibits usage patterns that contrast sharply with traditional entertainment platforms like Netflix.  While Netflix sees binge-watching spikes over the weekend, ChatGPT usage peaks during the work week, showing a pronounced rollercoaster pattern that makes Google’s traffic seem stable by comparison. Weekend usage drops to about two-thirds of its weekday highs, indicating that people probably use GenAI for work-related tasks.

The rise of GenAI is reshaping our digital habits. Traditional platforms are feeling the pressure as users increasingly turn to AI-powered alternatives for learning and problem-solving. Wikipedia, for instance, has experienced a decline in traffic since the launch of GPT-4, while Google Translate and Grammarly have rebounded after enhancing their AI capabilities. More users are relying on ChatGPT for information acquisition,  skill development, and language processing, while it also aids in more complex cognitive and analytical tasks. As GenAI continues to evolve, understanding its user demographics and usage patterns will be crucial for both developers and businesses seeking to harness its full potential.

_{Figure 2. Generative AI, particularly ChatGPT, has demonstrated a global reach, with usage recorded in 209 out of 218 economies by the end of March 2024.  Data source: Semrush and authors’ calculation. For a look at individual country data, click here}

While GenAI has reached far and wide, its uptake varies significantly based on a country’s level of development.  By the end of March 2024, ChatGPT had reached users in 209 countries, showcasing its impressive global diffusion. However, this expansion has not been without its challenges, as a persistent digital divide remains evident.   

Low-income countries account for less than one percent of GenAI traffic, highlighting the barriers that these nations face in accessing and utilizing such technologies. In contrast, the middle-income countries have emerged as the unexpected stars of the GenAI phenomenon, dominating the landscape by accounting for half of all ChatGPT traffic. Remarkably, within just six months of the tool's release, middle-income countries surpassed high-income countries in ChatGPT traffic. Countries like India, Brazil, the Philippines, and Indonesia exhibit high rates of GenAI adoption when compared to their GDP, electricity consumption, and search engine traffic.

^{Data source: GenAI and search engine traffic data are from Semrush, representing the total visits to the top 40 generative AI tools and to Google, Bing, and Yahoo in March 2024, respectively. Electricity consumption for 2022 is from the US Energy Information Administration. GDP measured in 2023 current US dollars is from the IMF.}

Several key factors contribute to the varying levels of GenAI adoption across countries:

• Digital infrastructure: There is a clear correlation between higher fixed broadband penetration, faster internet speeds, and increased usage of GenAI tools.
• Digital sector specialization: Economies that focus on digitally delivered services exports and have a strong pool of digital skills tend to demonstrate higher adoption rates. 
• English proficiency: While English fluency is strongly associated with higher chatbot usage, it does not necessarily extend to other types of GenAI tools or general web traffic.
• Youth power: A larger youth population is associated with higher generative AI uptake.

Generative AI for All: Ensuring Equitable Access and Benefits

The transformative potential of generative AI is immense, but it comes with the critical challenge of ensuring that its benefits are equitably distributed. While the rapid adoption of these technologies in middle-income countries is promising, it also underscores the widening divide with low-income countries.

Policymakers play a vital role and must accelerate investment in digital infrastructure, fostering digital skills development, and supporting the growth of digital sectors. Addressing language barriers in AI tools and implementing measures to ensure ethical use of AI is also crucial for industry stakeholders.By gaining a deeper understanding of GenAI adoption patterns and their impacts, we can work towards a future where the benefits of AI benefits are accessible to all. This will not only contribute to sustainable and inclusive growth worldwide, but also harness the full potential of digital technologies to improve lives on the planet.