Rising to the climate challenge: How the Maldives can thrive in a warming world

Maldives is famous for its crystal-clear waters, white sandy beaches, and stunning coral reefs. But beneath this beauty, the country faces a serious climate threat. Rising sea levels and warming oceans pose an existential challenge to this island nation.

Recognizing the urgency of these issues, the World Bank published the first-ever Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) for a small island developing state—the Maldives—in September 2024. This report, based on extensive research and data analysis, highlights the country's vulnerabilities to climate change and outlines a path toward sustainable development.

Over the past 20 years, the Maldives has made impressive progress. It has the highest GDP per capita in South Asia, and its health and education systems are as strong as those in many high-income countries. Tourism and fishing, the two main industries, have flourished thanks to the country's rich natural resources.

However, this success is under threat. The Maldives is struggling with rising public debt, financial instability, and external risks. Climate change is making things worse, bringing rising sea levels, coral reef damage, and more frequent extreme weather events.

The Maldives is one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change. About 80 percent of its islands sit less than one meter above sea level. The CCDR warns that sea levels could rise by 0.5 to 0.9 meters by 2100, which would cause severe flooding and damage to infrastructure and ecosystems. Coral reefs play a crucial role in protecting the Maldves from flooding and supporting tourism and fisheries. However, if global temperatures rise more than 2°C, nearly all shallow coral reefs could disappear. This would have devastating effects on marine life, tourism, and fishing communities. Under high-emission scenarios, fish stocks could collapse by the end of the century, affecting food security and livelihoods.

The Maldives CCDR includes groundbreaking research done with top academic institutions. Four major studies contributed to the report:

• A risk assessment of rising sea levels showed that coastal flooding could cause GDP losses of up to 11 percent by 2050 under high-emission scenarios. However, with smart adaptation strategies, economic reforms, and global cooperation, these losses could be cut in half.
• Two studies examined how climate change will impact coral reefs and fisheries, with serious consequences expected by mid-century.
• Another study developed an island classification system and long-term adaptation strategies to help the Maldives plan for environmental changes.

The Maldives must act quickly and creatively to address these challenges. The CCDR highlights key solutions:

• Nature-based solutions like restoring coral reefs, planting mangroves to protect coastlines, developing a coral management and investment plan, and expanding Marine Protected Areas. Reducing additional stressors, such as pollution and coastal development, especially during coral spawning periods, will also help.
• Coastal protection measures that combine traditional infrastructure with natural defenses. Gray infrastructure such as groynes or breakwaters can have tangible coastal protection benefits in some cases but also detriments such as increased erosion in other cases. Given this, coastal protection requires a balanced and island-specific approach that combines nature-based and engineered solutions to safeguard communities and ecosystems.
• Island-specific adaptation plans based on scientific research and long-term planning. These planning tools allow decision makers and communities to identify short-term low regret resilience measures while maintaining a longer-term view of integrated adaptation that considers trade-off and lock-in effects.

The report also emphasizes the need for financial reforms to stabilize the economy and attract investments for climate resilience. Reducing government spending and mobilizing international and private financing will be crucial to bridging the funding gap.

The Maldives’ struggle with climate change is not just a national issue—it’s a global one. The future of this island nation depends on worldwide efforts to cut greenhouse gas emissions and fulfill climate finance commitments. The CCDR shows that climate risks will worsen by mid-century, highlighting the need for urgent global action alongside local economic and environmental reforms.

The coming decades present a critical opportunity. With strong planning, strategic partnerships, and decisive actions, the Maldives can build a resilient and prosperous future despite the challenges ahead.

Read the full CCDR report, explore key findings, and watch the launch event recording here.