What will it take to protect cities from the rising threat of floods?

Across Europe and Central Asia, floods pose a growing threat to people and economies. 2024 served as a tragic reminder of how frequent, widespread, and devastating floods are becoming across all of Europe and Central Asia. 

In September 2024, Storm Boris brought record-breaking rainfall and triggered severe flooding, particularly affecting Austria, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Moldova, Poland, Romania, and Slovakia. The floods caused tragic loss of life, the evacuation of thousands, and widespread destruction of homes and infrastructure. The European Union pledged up to €10 billion for recovery efforts, while insurers faced claims of up to €3 billion. Jobs and livelihoods were severely impacted, as countless businesses, farms, and services were disrupted or destroyed. 

Other floods in 2024 caused devastation to communities from Western Europe to Central Asia, including in Spain, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Armenia, Kazakhstan, and Tajikistan. 

These events underscore the urgent need for action to build the resilience of communities—especially as flood risks are expected to grow.  

Europe—the world’s fastest warming continent—is projected to face more frequent rainfall extremes, and mounting economic damages from future floods. In Central Asia, intensified glacial melt and rainfall extremes are expected to exacerbate floods, especially threatening urban concentrations along major river basins.

^{Izmir, Türkiye. Source: 2025 CNES Airbus, via Google Earth}  

Local urbanization trends are aggravating flood exposure

Yet flood risk depends not only on the global climate, but also on factors closer to home. Decisions by local authorities on spatial planning and infrastructure investment can determine whether new developments occur in flood zones and thus affect people’s exposure and vulnerability to climatic shocks. 

In a new analysis, supported by the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR), we are seeing a troubling paradox across the region: urbanization in flood zones is accelerating – even as urbanization overall is slowing down.

Since 1985 the region’s built-up areas expanded by 80% to reach 350,000 square kilometers in 2020—slower than the global average growth of around 100%. However, these numbers mask the reality that many urban centers continue to expand fast, as people move into cities in search of jobs and opportunities. Some cities with declining populations continue to expand outward with new residential or industrial areas, while older buildings in the urban core see rising vacancy rates.

As cities evolve, a lack of risk-informed planning and increasing land scarcity means that settlements are expanding rapidly into flood zones. Since 1985 around 13,300 square kilometers of new settlements were built in flood zones throughout the region—equivalent to about 34 times the area of Belgrade. As a result, in 2020, around 8% of all built-up areas in Europe and Central Asia were located in flood zones, putting some 146 million people directly in harm’s way.

And the trends are concerning. In 42 out of 55 countries, settlement growth in flood zones even outpaced growth in safe zones. Rather than adapting their exposure to floods over time, these countries are continuously increasing it—most notably in the region’s middle-income economies, where high-risk settlements grew by 102%, compared to 74% in safe areas. Without action, these flood risks could be locked into the urban fabric for decades to come.

Timely actions can curb rising exposure and boost resilience 

Yet there is a silver lining: local authorities are well placed to actively manage and counteract rising flood exposure. Especially when flood exposure is already high, investments in early warning systems, protective infrastructure, and civil protection can help to mitigate losses. And revising land use and urbanization plans helps to avoid new construction in the highest-risk areas. Across the region, the World Bank is already supporting countries to put these notions into action.

Following  Poland's devastating 1997 floods, the World Bank supported the Government through the Odra River Flood Protection Project, which financed improvements of embankments, dikes, and reconstruction of riverbeds. During the 2024 floods, these measures protected more than 2.5 million people. Moreover, nature-based solutions can complement hard infrastructure. The Resilient Landscapes in Central Asia initiative finances landscape restoration in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan to address land degradation, erosion, and vegetation loss—all drivers of floods.

Risk-aware water resource management and urban planning are also critical. In Romania, the World Bank provided technical advisory support to the government for preparing flood hazard maps and flood risk management plans in line with the EU Floods Directive. In Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, and Serbia a flood risk management project in the Drina River Basin financed the strengthening of critical infrastructure, risk-informed planning, and transboundary collaboration on water resources.

But flood risks can never be fully eliminated, so preparing for the worst is also key. In Romania, World Bank projects are strengthening civil protection and first responder capabilities, while also providing risk financing to facilitate effective disaster response. In Moldova, the World Bank is financing key upgrades to meteorological and early warning systems.

As floods increasingly threaten communities, the World Bank will continue to step up with financing and expertise to support countries rise to the challenge and build a more resilient future.