After a nine-year hiatus, the publication of official poverty estimates for Guatemala is a reality. The World Bank played a key role by supporting the National Statistical Office (INE, for its acronym in Spanish), in conducting the 2023 National Life Standards Survey (Encuesta Nacional de Condiciones de Vida (ENCOVI), in Spanish), which provides vital data on the living standards of the Guatemalan population.
In addition, the World Bank provided technical assistance to revise the methodology for measuring poverty, aligned with international standards and supported by the World Bank’s Global Data Facility. The process was completed in the summer of 2024, and the survey results, along with the new official poverty estimates, were unveiled by INE during a high-level event at the presidential palace in August 2024.
A crucial element of the project was the capacity-building efforts within the National Statistical Office, which significantly enhanced its technical skills. This was not a one-sided endeavor but a truly collaborative and interactive process, characterized by a shared workload and joint responsibilities between INE and the World Bank team. Both teams contributed with knowledge, skills, and experience, fostering an environment of mutual learning and cooperation. The World Bank provided substantial technical assistance, offering guidance on international best practices and sharing experiences in other countries. INE, in turn, played a central role in adapting these practices to the Guatemalan context, ensuring that the methodologies developed were both rigorous and locally relevant.
The results of this project will play a pivotal role in shaping Guatemala’s national development and informing critical decision-making processes:
First, the new poverty estimates will allow the government to evaluate the effectiveness of existing programs and projects designed to alleviate poverty. The new data will enhance the capacity to monitor the wellbeing of the population, serving as baseline for poverty projections and nowcasting, the latter a term which is usually referred as estimates of poverty in the present (could be year or month). This way, policymakers can assess which initiatives are delivering tangible benefits to the population and which may need adjustments or redesign to better meet their objectives.
Second, the data will enable the estimation of small area poverty statistics using the most up-to-date techniques, which is essential for the equitable allocation of resources. These estimates provide a granular view of poverty levels at low administrative levels, such as municipalities, allowing for more targeted interventions. By understanding local variations in poverty, the government can ensure that subnational transfers and public funds are distributed more effectively to areas with the greatest need, thereby enhancing the impact of social programs and reducing regional disparities.
Third, the data will allow further analysis by academics, think thanks and development partners (including the World Bank) to identify barriers to inclusive growth and pinpoint the factors that perpetuate poverty and inequality. This includes understanding structural issues such as limited access to education, healthcare, and job opportunities, as well as social and economic inequalities that hinder upward mobility. Armed with this knowledge, policymakers can design more inclusive strategies that foster economic growth while ensuring that its benefits reach the most marginalized and vulnerable groups.
Finally, the updated data will significantly contribute to understanding vulnerability to climate change and related shocks. Guatemala, one of the countries that are part of the Dry Corridor in Central America, is highly susceptible to environmental risks such as droughts, floods, landslides and hurricanes, which disproportionately affect poorer populations. The data provides valuable insights into how climate change exacerbates poverty, and which communities are most at risk.
All in all, a very important tool for Guatemala’s policymaker to improve the wellbeing of the population of Guatemala.
This project is part of a Capacity Building Window sponsored by the World Bank’s Global Data Facility with financing from the Government of the United Kingdom’s Foreign Commonwealth & Development Office to bolster efforts aiding countries in enhancing their statistical capacities and addressing critical data gaps.
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