This is the fifth blog in a series about how countries can make progress on the interlinked objectives of poverty, shared prosperity, and the livable planet. For more information on the topic, read the 2024 Poverty, Prosperity, and Planet Report.
As part of its new corporate scorecard, the World Bank is now tracking the number of people at high risk from climate-related hazards across the world. This measure combines information on people being exposed to a set of key climate-related hazards (floods, droughts, cyclones, and heat waves) and people’s vulnerability (i.e. their propensity to be significantly affected or unable to cope with the impacts). Figure 1 below describes the indicator (more details in Box 3.1 in the 2024 Poverty, Prosperity, and Planet Report):
One in five people globally are at severe risk from climate-related hazards
Globally, nearly one in five people (17.9 percent) is at high risk from climate-related hazards (using data from circa 2021 for 103 economies). The blue circles in Figure 2 show that the share of populations exposed to climate-related hazards are largest in South Asia (88 percent) and East Asia and Pacific (68 percent). However, when combining exposure rates with vulnerability, the picture changes (red circles in Figure 2). Sub-Saharan Africa has the largest share of people being at risk from climate-related hazards: the almost perfectly overlapping circles in this region indicate that nearly the same proportion of people exposed to an extreme weather event is also at high risk (39.2 percent and 37.3 percent, respectively, of the total population). The stark contrast between Sub-Saharan Africa and North America highlights the critical role of vulnerability: while 31 percent of North America's population is exposed to extreme weather events, only 1 percent is at high risk—underscoring the urgent need to address vulnerability in Sub-Saharan Africa.
Higher poverty rates, lower levels of education, and worse access to basic services, infrastructure, social protection, and financial instruments all contribute to high vulnerability in Sub-Saharan Africa. Deprivations in these dimensions make it more likely that people in the region experience significant welfare losses when an extreme weather event occurs. For example, among those exposed to any hazard, the share of people without social protection or with low levels of education is twice as high as in other regions. Moreover, only 50 percent of the population in Sub-Saharan Africa has access to electricity, and 65 percent has access to basic drinking water.
While Figure 2 highlights where people are likely to experience welfare losses from climate-related hazards today, it is important to remember that this is a static picture using data from circa 2021. The good news is that large gains in income and financial access have led to a reduction in the number of people vulnerable to experiencing significant welfare losses between 2010 and 2019. However, as we will see below and as described in the previous blog in this series, the risks are likely to intensify, and it is important that vulnerability reduces fast as exposure increases.
Only a few economies are responsible for most greenhouse gas emissions, which are linked to the occurrence of extreme weather events
It is not only people’s vulnerability to climate-related hazards that evolves over time, but also the likelihood of hazards occurring, and the intensity at which they will occur. Extreme weather events have been happening much more frequently since the 1970s. There is overwhelming scientific consensus that human-caused emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) are responsible for the observed warming of the atmosphere, ocean, and land that are causing increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events.
In 2022, the three main anthropogenic GHGs—carbon dioxide (CO2), methane, and nitrous oxide—reached record levels, trapping nearly 50 percent more heat than in 1990 (Figure 3). East Asia and Pacific, Europe and Central Asia, and North America have been the highest-emitting regions over the past decades. At the other end of the spectrum, Sub-Saharan Africa was responsible for only 5 percent of global emissions in 2022 (with 15 percent of the global population). High-income and upper-middle-income countries account for 32 percent and 52 percent of global emissions, while constituting only 15 percent and 35 percent of the global population. In fact, the ten countries with the largest emissions produce two-thirds of global GHG emissions.
Economies most at risk from climate-related hazards today contribute least to global GHG emissions
Figures 2 and 3 show that the economies generating most emissions, and thus contributing most to climate change and the increasing occurrence of extreme weather events, are not the ones where populations are most at risk from these climate-related hazards. Figure 4 shows this divergence between per capita emissions and risk to climate change more clearly, where marker sizes reflect the number of people in extreme poverty (defined as living on less than $2.15 per person per day). On the far left of the figure are the countries with the smallest share of populations at risk. Among this group are also those that produce the most emissions per capita. It is striking that economies with higher population shares at risk emit very little and sometimes even have negative emissions. It is also clear that extreme poverty is rare among the countries that have the smallest share of population at risk.
The most recent UNEP Emissions Gap Report reaffirms that GHG emissions are likely to continue under current policies and which will lead to significant global temperature increases. Moreover, the latest blog in this series showed that these trends matter for global progress on poverty reduction. Looking to the future, the latest scientific evidence suggests that exposure to climate hazards will expand, leading countries with both high and low levels of risk today to experience increasing and more extreme hazards going forward. Only lowering emissions can reduce the escalation of hazards globally.
At the same time, it will be essential to boost people’s resilience, especially in the poorest regions of the world. While the global population with high levels of vulnerability has declined, the number of people at risk from climate-related hazards has increased in the International Development Association (IDA) countries, which are the poorest in the world. Economic growth has been stagnant in these economies, as has growth in access to basic services. A new World Bank report demonstrates that economic growth and building resilience to climate change go hand-in-hand, estimating that a 10% increase in GDP per capita will reduce the number of people who are most vulnerable by about 100 million.
Ensuring that the number of people at risk from climate change declines will require global action to 1) reduce emissions to limit the increase in hazards and 2) enhance the resilience of people exposed to climate-related hazards now and in the future. The top priority for high-emitting countries must be on transitioning to low-emission economies as fast as possible. Concurrently, the world must work together to provide resources and support policies that increase resilience in the countries most at risk. The pathways laid out in the 2024 Poverty, Prosperity, and Planet Report acknowledge different priorities that countries have, but also responsibilities that come from actions with global consequences. It is clear that global challenges can only be tackled through global cooperation.
The authors gratefully acknowledge financial support from the UK Government through the Data and Evidence for Tackling Extreme Poverty (DEEP) Research Program.
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