Driving towards a greener future: Decarbonizing paratransit in South Africa

Amid a global push to decarbonize transportation, the paratransit system—comprising informal networks of private vans and cars that are ubiquitous across Sub-Saharan Africa—presents a significant opportunity to reduce emissions. However, the sector faces challenges in transitioning to low-carbon alternatives due to the limited availability of affordable, suitably sized electric vehicles, systemic inefficiencies from fragmentation, and constraints in access to financing and technical capacity.

In South Africa, efforts to reform the public transport sector have highlighted inefficiencies in the informal transit system and explored potential solutions. Most recently, the Development Bank of Southern Africa, with technical support from the World Bank and the Public-Private Infrastructure Advisory Facility (PPIAF), has approved the institutions first loan directly to a paratransit association in Pretoria, South Africa, to support collectivizing and corporatizing their operations. By adopting effective bus operations planning and best practices through collectivization, operators can reduce the number of vehicles required, in turn lowering fuel consumption and emissions—all while improving service delivery.
 

Figure 1: Officials from the Development Bank of Southern Africa and the Pretoria Randburg Soshanguve Taxi Association (PRS-TA) celebrate the signing of a memorandum of understanding to collaborate on the introduction of business improvement and collectivization measures on their Pretoria operations.

The work with the DBSA also included a comprehensive pre-feasibility study supported by PPIAF that explored the introduction of electric minibus taxis on a route managed by the Pretoria-Randburg-Soshanguve (PRS) MBT Association. The association oversees multiple minibus-taxi routes between Soshanguve north of Pretoria, and Randburg north of Johannesburg, with a fleet of over 550 vehicles owned by its 268 active members.

The project examined a 54km route from Marabastad, east of Pretoria, to Randburg, east of Johannesburg, a relatively long (but not unusually so for South Africa) commuter service operated by 15 member-owners using 29 vehicles (comprising a mix of 15-seat petrol and diesel and 22-seat diesel vehicles). The study analyzed the emissions impacts and total cost implications of three scenarios:

Scenario 1: Optimizing operations with a standardized fleet of 22-seat diesel vehicles.
Scenario 2: Optimizing operations with a standardized fleet of 22-seat electric vehicles.
Scenario 3: Replacing the 29 vehicles with nine 65-seat electric buses and adjusting the schedule accordingly

The analysis used real-world operations and fuel consumption data to assess current emissions, while future scenarios were based on planned operational data and Original Equipment Manufacturer (OEM) information. Although the calculations employed average emissions factors, the likelihood that the minibus fleets are using lower-than-average fuel quality suggests that the actual emissions may be higher, making these conservative estimates.

Figure 2: By implementing straightforward business improvements, such as standardizing the fleet to a more appropriately specified vehicle, GhG emissions can be reduced by at least 21%.

Source: Decarbonizing Paratransit Operations Report, World Bank

Scenario 1: Optimizing operations with a standardized fleet of 22-seat diesel vehicles

This scenario resulted in a 21 % reduction in emissions along the route. This result was achieved by optimizing the schedule to maximize vehicle productivity and standardizing the fleet on 22-seat vehicles, demonstrating that significant emissions cuts can be made through straightforward operational adjustments. However, achieving this reduction in fleet size requires collectivizing the operation, which can only be sustained with access to capital on more favorable terms than typically available in the market. In this case, the DBSA will provide the necessary funding for the fleet transition at an affordable interest rate (slightly above South Africa's prime lending rate), based on a solid business plan and financial model developed with technical support from the World Bank and PPIAF.

Scenario 2 and 3: Assessing the feasibility of replacing the existing fleet with electric vehicles

Given South Africa’s reliance on coal for its energy mix, replacing the diesel fleet with electric vehicles would result in a 96.33% increase in GHG emissions under scenario 2 and a 15.82% increase for scenario 3, if vehicles are charged from the local electricity grid. However, as South Africa decarbonizes its grid in the coming decades, the emissions reduction potential of electric vehicles is expected to improve significantly. In practical terms, there are currently few smaller electric busses readily available in the South African market that meet the necessary OEM standards to effectively mitigate operational risks. Additionally, the capital investment for both the fleet and charging infrastructure poses a significant barrier to the transition to electric vehicles (figure 3).

Figure 3: The Total cost of ownership for various commercially available internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles in South Africa, compared to electric vehicle (EV) alternatives (excluding charging infrastructure), highlights that without substantial subsidies for both capital and energy costs, transitioning to EVs will continue to be a commercially challenging endeavor

Source: Decarbonizing Paratransit Operations Report, World Bank

Improvements in operations and the potential of low carbon alternatives

The study highlights that while transitioning to electric vehicles in the paratransit sector can yield significant long-term benefits, there are also important short-term gains from improving business and operational performance. Collectivization can facilitate the adoption of new technologies by sharing risks and improving access to affordable capital. In addition, collectivization and corporatization create opportunities for public-private partnerships, which can accelerate the adoption of EV technologies and attract private sector investment to develop the sector.

The adoption of electric vehicles offers additional benefits including noise reduction, lower maintenance costs, and improved local air quality, contributing to more sustainable urban mobility and public health. By leveraging the financing commitments from COP26 and integrating renewable energy solutions, such as PV panel installations at taxi ranks, we may be able to accelerate the transition towards a greener, more sustainable transportation system in South Africa—and beyond.

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Improving paratransit through digital innovation