Embracing megatrends for human development in the Middle East and North Africa

What if some of the greatest challenges facing our region—aging populations, climate pressures, and rapid technological change—could become our biggest opportunities? In the Middle East and North Africa region we stand at a crossroads. The choices we make today will shape the future for generations.  

Over my three decades at the World Bank Group, I’ve seen how investing in people can transform societies and turn adversity into strength. Human capital isn’t just a buzzword – it's the bedrock of resilience and prosperity. When we invest in health, education, and skills, we empower individuals to thrive, communities to flourish, and countries to weather storms and seize new possibilities. 

Our recently launched flagship report Embracing and Shaping Change: Human Development for a Middle East and North Africa in Transition provides an in-depth analysis of the impact of three global megatrends on the region; aging populations, climate stress, and technological change.  The report offers a roadmap for harnessing them to unlock human potential and drive inclusive growth.  

In the next two decades, the region is expected to experience the highest growth rate of its 65+ age cohort in the world, reaching 12% of the population by 2050 and, unreformed pension systems in multiple countries could face annual deficits an average of 3% of GDP. Noncommunicable diseases in countries like Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Morocco, affect a higher share of the population, and start at younger age, compared to advanced aging countries such as Japan and Germany. Needless to say, this has negative impacts on productivity and higher healthcare costs.  

At the same time, countries in the region are highly vulnerable to climate stress. Increased frequency of extreme heat and strains on the region’s already scarce water resources are threatening learning, health, and livelihoods.  

However, as our report finds, the region has the opportunity to transform these challenging megatrends into engines of growth. But to do so, we need bold, future-fit policies and investments.  

First, educational systems must evolve to equip young people and adults with the digital skills needed for today and tomorrow, and more broadly foster the cognitive and emotional skills to become on the job learners, strong collaborators, critical thinkers, and flexible. On the policy front, this means strengthening foundational skills, private sector input on curricula, apprenticeship and work-based learning models, but also offering flexible pathways for lifelong learning through stackable credentials.   

In our region, we can look to Saudi Arabia as an example of success in improving its educational systems while also better connecting the labor market to skilled workers. The Kingdom’s sector councils provide a model for workforce transformation, having developed standards for dozens of green occupations and trained thousands of workers to support the country’s net-zero ambitions. 

Secondly, to help support the aging populations, working lives must be extended through quality systems and avert greater future costs for an aging population. To harness the working population’s potential, countries must first expand women’s participation in the labor force through quality childcare, long-term care, and policies that provide more economic opportunities for women.  Also, health systems must work towards mitigating communicable diseases for healthier aging populations. They must reinforce their outreach and interventions to prevent and identify early on chronic conditions, support patients in better managing specific diseases, improve healthy lifestyles (including by appropriately taxing tobacco and unhealthy foods). Technology can also support these health goals.   

Lastly, countries must be prepared to utilize technological advances for better employment. This not only helps with pensions for aging populations but also boosts the private sector. The rise of digital jobs and the use of AI in the workplace requires adapting labor regulations to protect workers from new risks, but it is also an opportunity to introduce incentives to extend social insurance coverage, if done correctly.   

Unfortunately, the challenges brought on by these megatrends are unfolding in a region marked by pervasive fragility and conflict. Here, human development must come first. Rebuilding and protecting education, health, food security, and income security is not just a priority –it's the anchor for stability and future economic recovery.   

The future of the region will be defined not by the resources we have today, but by our commitment to invest in the capability and resilience of our people. With bold policies and actions, we can turn today’s challenges into tomorrow’s opportunities.  

Are we ready to seize this moment?