In the fight against poverty, timely, reliable, and open data is our compass. Without it, we are unable to track progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals SDG1, design effective policies, or respond to emerging needs. This year, we celebrate improved measurement of post-pandemic poverty in the MENA region, thanks to better availability and access to household budget surveys.
Better availability and access to data in the region:
For the first time, the World Bank has released regional poverty estimates for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) for the post-pandemic years. Historically, data scarcity has posed a significant challenge in the MENA region. The availability, access, and timeliness of household budget surveys, which collect detailed expenditure data and serve as a base to estimate poverty and inequality, were also far from ideal. The lack of surveys was the key reason the World Bank could not produce international poverty rates for the region for most recent years. Thus, the September 2024 global poverty update from the World Bank included data for the MENA region up to 2018, as the region did not meet the minimum requirement for most recent surveys to cover 50 percent of the regional population after 2019. Regional population coverage by household budget surveys during a three-year window was 51.3 percent for 2018, decreasing to 48.3 percent for 2019 and to very low 28.7 percent after the pandemic.
In a significant development, the World Bank has recently included new estimates for the region, increasing the regional population coverage from 28.7 percent to 67.4 percent by adding post-pandemic surveys. This includes surveys from Egypt (2021), Iran (2023), Iraq (2023), West Bank and Gaza (2023), and Lebanon (2022). These surveys complemented the ones incorporated by the World Bank earlier in March 2024, such as Iran (2022), Tunisia (2021), and Syria (2022). Overall, the recent update includes data from 7 out of the 12 developing countries in MENA. The inclusion of additional 3 countries is contingent on the availability of their microdata, and data collection is currently underway for one of the two remaining countries without recent data. This may result in the region achieving a data coverage as good as the world average (76 percent).
The improvement in data availability was due to the efforts of the National Statistical Agencies, which continued collecting data despite regional challenges. The World Bank has supported this process by providing technical assistance, resources, and advice during the preparation and implementation of the surveys. The World Bank also works on providing foundational knowledge and technical guidelines for measuring poverty. For example, the World Bank conducted last year an accelerated data workshop that had the participation of 31 statisticians from 10 countries in the region.
Poverty estimates:
The MENA region is the only one where poverty has increased since 2010. Measured by a daily line of $3.0 (2021 PPP), extreme poverty increased from 4 percent in 2010 to 8.6 percent in 2021 and with a projection of 9.4 percent for 2025. For the same period, global poverty fell from 21 percent in 2010 to 9.9 percent in 2025. The lower-middle income poverty line of $4.2 a day, more appropriate for the MENA region, shows a more nuanced picture: poverty increased from 11.7 to 15.7 percent between 2010 and 2021. Due to the economic rebound, it fell slightly to 15.0 percent in 2022 and started growing again afterward. Projected at 15.6 percent in 2025. The upper-middle income line of $8.3 shows an increase in poverty from 49 percent in 2010 to 51.5 percent in 2021 and a gradual reduction afterward to 48.7 percent in 2025.
Syria and Yemen are among the poorest countries in the region and also the largest contributors to the increase in poverty before and after the pandemic due to prolonged civil conflicts. Other countries also saw rises in poverty levels prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. For example, poverty increased in Egypt during 2015-2017 likely due to a sharp rise in inflation following the currency devaluation in 2016. In Iran, severe economic recession, tightening US sanctions, and rising inflation resulted in growing poverty during 2017-2019. After 2020, though, Iran was one of the key contributors to a decline in poverty, where the population benefited from increased wages and self-employment earnings and a surge in one-time social transfers. Poverty estimates for Egypt in 2021 have returned to their 2015 levels. We encourage our readers to explore the World Bank Poverty and Inequality Portal for comprehensive regional and country-specific poverty rates, and learn more about the June 2025 global poverty update from the World Bank.
In conclusion, achieving and maintaining accurate poverty measurement in the MENA region is a significant milestone; however, its success hinges critically on the regular collection and dissemination of household budget surveys. Let us collectively support these efforts to ensure informed and effective policymaking.
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