Revisiting graduation from social assistance: samba style

In Brazil, few programs have danced through policy debates like Bolsa Família. Launched in 2003, it became a global model showing that cash transfers reduce poverty, improve child outcomes, and strengthen human development. 

Still, one question keeps returning to the policy stage: do families really graduate from programs like Bolsa Família or remain dependent? Over the years, economists, policymakers, and journalists have debated the issue—from whether higher transfers discourage work to whether education is the surest route out of assistance, and to the scale of dependence, with nearly 50 million Brazilians receiving family benefits today. 

Graduation does happen, but rarely in a single step. It resembles a samba: a rhythm that evolves across generations, steady and enduring. 

1. The long route: human capital and the intergenerational beat             

When policymakers speak of graduation, they often picture a family crossing from poor to non-poor through work or income. In reality, it is a long-term process powered by the gradual accumulation of human capital—the heart of Bolsa Família’s design. School and health conditions are not bureaucratic hurdles; they are investments in children’s futures that, over time, loosen poverty’s grip. 

Evidence shows that children in Bolsa Família households attend school more regularly, drop out less, and receive better preventive care. Research shows that those under seven are about three times more likely to have growth monitoring, to be vaccinated, and to get regular checkups than peers outside the program. Education results show similar gains with higher enrollment, lower dropout, and better grade promotion. 

These effects ripple outward. A study following 7- to 16-year-olds in 2005 found that by 2019, 64 percent were no longer beneficiaries of federal programs and 45 percent had entered formal employment at least once,  a rate significantly higher than the general population of the same age. Graduation unfolds gradually as children mature and human-capital gains translate into stable work and income. 

2. The short route: current impacts on work and income

There is also a shorter route to graduation, involving families who move out of poverty today rather than decades from now. Here, Brazil’s evidence gives reason for optimism. 

Research finds that Bolsa Família does not discourage work. Beneficiaries are about as likely to be employed as comparable non-beneficiaries, and in some areas women’s participation rises as transfers help cover childcare or job-search costs. Recent reviews conclude that effects on labor supply are “null or very small.” Government analysis shows that the R$ 600 benefit does not lead people to abandon work but helps them avoid precarious jobs that keep them vulnerable. 

3. Three steps to keep rhythm

Bolsa Família acts as a springboard, not a crutch. It gives families the confidence to seek better jobs, migrate for work, or start small businesses while keeping children in school. For these gains to last, opportunity must meet security. Graduation depends on more than individual effort; it requires an environment that sustains progress. Like any samba, it takes an ensemble: growth to create jobs, inclusion to open doors, and incentives to keep the rhythm steady. 

    (a) Supportive environment: growth, jobs, and opportunity

Human capital leads to graduation only when the economy generates jobs. Municipalities with stronger employment growth show more stable exits from Bolsa Família. Transfers also stimulate local activity; macro studies find measurable increases in GDP and employment, with short-run multipliers between 0.5 and 1.5. Inclusive growth and social protection reinforce each other. 

    (b) Complementary programs: bridges to productive inclusion

Cash transfers protect families but do not automatically create livelihoods. Bridges are needed through training, credit, and local development. Programs like Bolsa Família make participation possible by ensuring a basic income that frees mental bandwidth and reduces the cognitive stress of poverty.  

Under the Brazil Without Extreme Poverty strategy (Brasil Sem Miséria), cash transfers were linked with skills and microfinance. That legacy continues with Acredita (Law 14.995/2024), which expands credit and entrepreneurship support for small businesses and low-income entrepreneurs. Oriented microcredit has also boosted self-employment and investment, especially when paired with mentoring. The lesson is clear: graduation requires coordination among social protection, training, credit, and markets. 

    (c) Incentive-compatible design: aligning rules with mobility

Even with opportunity, families hesitate to climb if doing so means losing their safety net. The Benefit Protection Rule (Regra de Proteção) allows families whose income rises to stay in the program for up to twelve months while receiving half their benefit. The Guaranteed Return (Retorno Garantido) ensures priority re-entry for up to thirty-six months. Together, they blend security and incentive, encourage honest reporting, and reduce the risk of relapse. When incentives reward mobility instead of punishing it, graduation becomes a realistic goal rather than a risky gamble. 

4. The encore: dancing toward sustainable graduation

Samba was born from resilience—Afro-Brazilian communities turning hardship into rhythm and joy. In that spirit, Bolsa Família shows how policy can transform vulnerability into dignity and hope. 

Two routes drive this progress: 

• The long route of human-capital accumulation that breaks intergenerational poverty.
• The short route of improved earnings that, with complementary programs, helps families step up and stay up. 

As Bolsa Família marks its 22nd anniversary, the World Bank is proud to continue its partnership with the Government of Brazil in supporting the program’s evolution and sharing its lessons globally. The challenge of moving families from protection to opportunity is shared by many countries seeking to make social protection more inclusive and empowering. Through our seminar series, we invite you to join us in exploring how Bolsa Família has achieved and sustained this delicate yet enduring policy balance.