Migrants trying to cross the Croatian border to enter the European Union in search for a better life. Photo: stu.dio / Shutterstock.com
Over 117 million people around the world are forcibly displaced due to conflict, violence, and persecution, as of 2023. Forcibly displaced people, including refugees, asylum-seekers, internally displaced people (IDP), and other people in need of international protection, face significant vulnerabilities that impede their economic participation and social inclusion, placing social and economic pressures on host communities and countries.
The World Development Indicators (WDI) have recently included a suite of indicators on forcibly displaced people, likewise reflected in the World Bank Group Scorecard, sourced from data published by the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), including data published by the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC) and the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA).
What are the new indicators?
The suite of indicators in WDI offers users a comprehensive understanding of forced displacement by providing data on multiple types of forced displacement. This data directly supports SDG Target 10.7 on facilitating safe and orderly migration.
Figure 1 provides an overview of the indicators on forcibly displaced people1.
Figure 1. Forcibly Displaced People (Indicators).
Moreover, the indicators on refugees, asylum-seekers, and other people in need of international protection are reported by the country or territory of origin and asylum, for those that have been displaced across an international border, also by their country of asylum.
Figure 2 shows the data for the suite of indicators over time.
Figure 2. Forcibly Displaced People (Indicator Data)
The expansion of WDI indicators results from taking a more structured approach to mapping different components of forced displacement. A key advancement is the more comprehensive representation of forcibly displaced people, expanding indicators on refugees and IDP while also including asylum-seekers and others in need of international protection (for a comparison, see Figure 3).
Figure 3. World Development Indicators (Update)
Note. The left column summarizes the expanded suite of indicators in WDI while the right column summarizes the (previously covered) related indicators in WDI.
The broader scope ensures a fuller depiction of forced displacement trends, capturing individuals in transit or awaiting legal recognition. Additionally, the systematic mapping of indicators by both the country or territory of asylum and origin provides a more nuanced understanding of forced displacement, distinguishing the burden on host countries from the scale and patterns of displacement in countries or territories of origin.
The indicators rely on multiple data sources. For example, the indicator on refugees under the mandate of the UNRWA relies on data by the respective agency, while the indicator on IDP relies on data from the IDMC. We also attempt to improve the data by addressing potential double counting of people in different categories due to transitions in status.
What are the caveats and measurement challenges?
One primary challenge is the potential overlap between displacement categories. Individuals may transition between statuses over time or be classified under multiple population groups at the same time; for example, a person who flees conflict across a border may initially be counted as an asylum-seeker but later be granted refugee status. While efforts are made to adjust for such transitions, maintaining clear distinctions remains a complex task, given the fluid nature of forced displacement.
Additionally, the IDP indicator reflects displacement due to conflict and violence, but not natural hazards, environmental changes, or development-related factors, in alignment with the definition of forcibly displaced people. Further, it is worth noting that refugees, asylum-seekers, and IDP may also be ‘stateless’, i.e., not recognized as citizens by any country. However, there are populations who are considered as stateless, but who have not been forcibly displaced. While in a precarious legal standing, these people are not considered to be forcibly displaced.
What are the advancements and challenges in forced displacement indicators?
Forced displacement indicators are a crucial element in measuring and understanding displacement dynamics, but further progress is needed to refine methodologies and enhance data granularity.
In this context, recent advances on flow data—capturing new displacements, returns, and movements between displacement categories—and disaggregated data by age, gender, and socio-economic status by UNHCR offer great potentials for development practice and research.
The World Development Indicators (WDI) are accessible via this page. The WDI database, including the data and reference metadata, for the indicators on forced displacement are available via this page. A release note is available via this page.
The authors are pleased to acknowledge the contributions of the population statistics team, Hyunju Park, Edgar Scrase, and Janis Kreuder, of the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR).
[1] Forcibly displaced people, as an aggregate, include refugees (and people in a refugee-like situation) under the mandate of the UNHCR, refugees under the mandate of the UNRWA (by country or territory of asylum), asylum-seekers (by country or territory of asylum), other people in need of international protection (by country or territory of asylum), and IDP, ensuring comprehensive visibility of vulnerable populations requiring protection and assistance.
[A] The term country, used interchangeably with economy, does not imply political independence but refers to any territory for which authorities report separate social or economic statistics.
[B] The figures refer for reasons of readability to ‘Refugee(s) (UNHCR)’ (Refugees (and people in a refugee-like situation) under the mandate of the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, UNHCR), and ‘Refugee(s) (UNRWA)’ (Refugees under the mandate of the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East, UNRWA).
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