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Jamaica’s poverty rollercoaster: harnessing data to break the cycle

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Jamaica’s poverty rollercoaster: harnessing data to break the cycle A street in Kingston, the capital of Jamaica / Photo: Shutterstock

Jamaica’s poverty journey is a story of highs and lows—a persistent rollercoaster ride that reflects the country’s vulnerability to economic shocks. Over the past decades, the country has achieved moments of significant poverty reduction, only to see these gains erased by crises like the Global Financial Crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic.

To help Jamaica address its persistent poverty challenges and develop more effective, targeted policies, the World Bank recently conducted a comprehensive Jamaica Poverty Assessment. This report provides an in-depth analysis of poverty and inequality trends and the underlying factors contributing to economic vulnerability. It also showcases the value of the Jamaican Survey of Living Conditions (JSLC), which has consistently collected quantitative data on poverty and wellbeing for more than three decades. This marks a significant achievement in a sub-region—the Caribbean—where efforts to address key data gaps are growing.

Key Facts about poverty in Jamaica

Fact #1: Poverty in Jamaica has fluctuated significantly over time.

Jamaica’s poverty rate has followed a rollercoaster trajectory over the years, with periods of significant progress repeatedly undone by external shocks. After reaching a historic low of 9.9% in 2007, poverty more than doubled to 24.6% in 2013 following the Global Financial Crisis. The rate fell again to 11% in 2019 as the economy recovered, only to spike back to an estimated 21% in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. By 2021, at an early stage of Jamaica’s economic recovery, the poverty rate stood at 16.7%, underlining the challenge of sustaining progress. These dramatic ups and downs highlight the country's vulnerability to economic shocks.

Fact #2: Economic dependence on low-productive sectors makes the economyand peoplevulnerable to shocks.

Jamaica's economic activity is heavily concentrated in low-productivity sectors like tourism and agriculture, making it highly vulnerable to external shocks. Tourism, a cornerstone of the economy, is particularly sensitive to global disruptions, while agriculture faces frequent climate-related challenges. This reliance has limited economic diversification and sustained growth, with Jamaica’s real GDP growing at an annual average of only 0.8% from 1990 to 2019—below the Latin America and Caribbean regional average of 2.7%. 

Fact #3: Low-quality jobs leave many Jamaicans vulnerable.

Although job creation has helped reduce poverty in some periods, many of these jobs are insecure and concentrated in low-productivity sectors like tourism and retail. The lack of job security leaves workers highly susceptible to economic downturns. During the COVID-19 pandemic, unemployment surged from 7.3% to 12.6% in just six months, exposing the fragility of many households’ livelihoods.

Fact #4: Health progress is undermined by inequality.

Jamaica has made strides in healthcare, with nearly all births attended by skilled professionals and vaccination programs reducing childhood mortality. However, the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted services, pushing vaccination rates below targets and widening socioeconomic gaps. Poor households face a "double burden" of malnutrition, where undernutrition and obesity coexist. Malnutrition is three times more common in low-income households, leading to developmental delays and a higher risk of non-communicable diseases, the leading cause of death in Jamaica.

Fact #5: Education Gaps Hold Back Opportunities.

While nearly all Jamaican children have access to primary schooling, learning gaps remain. On average, students complete 11.4 years of schooling by age 18, but these are equivalent to only 7.1 years of effective learning—below regional averages. Only 38% of secondary students passed math exams in 2021, down from 47% in 2018. Low aspirations, violence, and—among girls—teenage pregnancy disproportionately affect education for students in poor households and those in rural areas, perpetuating inequality.

Solutions for Breaking the Cycle

To break free from the cycle of vulnerability, Jamaica needs economic transformation to create productive jobs that can lift people out of poverty sustainably. This means enhancing productivity in sectors where poorer workers are currently concentrated, including tourism and agriculture, while also bolstering formal job creation in sectors where productivity is already high. Providing the private sector with the regulatory support and infrastructure it needs, while promoting the use of technology, innovation, and entrepreneurship, can stimulate the creation of higher-quality jobs. This, in turn, can ensure that the economy not only grows but evolves in ways that provide long-term stability for the workforce.
 

However, transforming the economy is just one piece of the puzzle. Strengthening social safety nets is equally crucial for protecting vulnerable populations during crises. Expanding programs like conditional cash transfers and improving income protection systems, through unemployment benefits or more effective severance pay initiatives, can cushion the blow of economic shocks. Fiscal reforms to target social transfers better and improve their efficiency could also maximize the impact of public spending on poverty reduction.  
 

At the same time, investing in climate resilience is vital, especially for Jamaica’s agricultural sector, which is highly susceptible to climate-related shocks. Climate-smart practices and infrastructure investments can help protect rural livelihoods and maintain food security in the face of increasingly unpredictable weather patterns.
 

One of Jamaica's biggest assets is its youth, and unlocking their potential is key to the country's economic future. Providing better education, integrating digital skills into curricula, and supporting young entrepreneurs can ensure that Jamaica's youth not only find jobs but build meaningful careers. Addressing learning losses through targeted remedial programs will also be critical for building human capital and reducing inequality.
 

The World Bank remains committed to generating reliable and timely evidence to inform Jamaica's poverty reduction efforts. To learn more about poverty in Jamaica, please visit this link


Assel Paju

Senior Communications Officer, ECA

Eliana Rubiano-Matulevich

Senior Economist at the Poverty and Equity Global Practice for Latin American and the Caribbean at The World Bank

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