In observance of the International Migrants Day, December 18
Officially recorded remittances to low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) are expected to reach $685 billion in 2024. The true size of remittances, including flows through informal channels, is also believed to be even larger. The growth rate of remittances in 2024 is estimated to be 5.8 percent, significantly higher than 1.2 percent registered in 2023 (table 1).
Table 1. Remittance Flows to Low- and Middle-Income Regions, 2017–24
$ billion |
2017 |
2018 |
2019 |
2020 |
2021 |
2022 |
2023 |
2024e |
Low- and middle-income countries |
465 |
510 |
536 |
530 |
587 |
640 |
647 |
685 |
East Asia and Pacific |
129 |
137 |
143 |
132 |
128 |
132 |
135 |
136 |
excluding China |
65 |
70 |
75 |
72 |
75 |
81 |
85 |
88 |
Europe and Central Asia |
42 |
47 |
49 |
46 |
55 |
68 |
62 |
64 |
Latin America and Caribbean |
81 |
89 |
96 |
104 |
131 |
144 |
155 |
163 |
Middle East and North Africa |
54 |
55 |
57 |
59 |
67 |
65 |
55 |
58 |
South Asia |
117 |
132 |
140 |
147 |
157 |
177 |
185 |
207 |
Sub-Saharan Africa |
42 |
49 |
50 |
43 |
49 |
54 |
55 |
56 |
High-income countries |
179 |
189 |
193 |
191 |
208 |
205 |
218 |
219 |
World |
644 |
699 |
729 |
721 |
795 |
844 |
865 |
905 |
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Growth rate (percent) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Low- and middle-income countries |
8.9 |
9.7 |
5.0 |
-0.9 |
10.6 |
9.0 |
1.2 |
5.8 |
East Asia and Pacific |
5.3 |
7.0 |
4.0 |
-8.0 |
-2.5 |
2.8 |
2.0 |
1.0 |
excluding China |
5.8 |
8.4 |
6.4 |
-3.4 |
4.5 |
7.4 |
5.2 |
3.3 |
Europe and Central Asia |
20.1 |
13.1 |
4.2 |
-7.2 |
20.2 |
24.1 |
-8.7 |
3.0 |
Latin America and Caribbean |
10.9 |
9.9 |
8.2 |
7.4 |
26.2 |
10.4 |
7.5 |
5.5 |
Middle East and North Africa |
13.4 |
1.8 |
3.9 |
4.1 |
12.8 |
-3.2 |
-14.6 |
5.4 |
South Asia |
6.0 |
12.3 |
6.1 |
5.2 |
6.7 |
12.4 |
5.1 |
11.8 |
Sub-Saharan Africa |
9.6 |
17.1 |
0.9 |
-13.8 |
13.6 |
10.3 |
1.0 |
2.4 |
High-income countries |
7.0 |
5.8 |
2.3 |
-1.4 |
8.9 |
-1.5 |
6.6 |
0.7 |
World |
8.4 |
8.6 |
4.2 |
-1.1 |
10.2 |
6.3 |
2.5 |
4.2 |
Source: Authors’ estimates. |
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Notes: e = estimate; LMICs = low- and middle-income countries |
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The top five recipient countries for remittances in 2024 are India, with an estimated inflow of $129 billion, followed by Mexico ($68 billion), China ($48 billion), the Philippines ($40 billion), and Pakistan ($33 billion) (figure 1). In smaller economies, remittance inflows represent very large shares of gross domestic product (GDP), highlighting the importance of remittances for funding the current account and fiscal shortfalls. Topping the list is Tajikistan (45 percent of GDP), followed by Tonga (38 percent), Nicaragua (27 percent), Lebanon (27 percent), and Samoa (26 percent) (figure 2).
Figure 1. Top Recipients of Remittances among Low- and Middle-Income Countries in volume, 2024e
Figure 2. Top Recipients of Remittances among Low- and Middle-Income Countries in % of GDP, 2024e
Source: Authors’ estimates. Note: GDP = gross domestic product; e = estimate; Yemen, Somalia and South Sudan figures are not included due to data validity
The recovery of the job markets in the high-income countries of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, has been the key driver of remittances. This is especially true for the United States where the employment of foreign-born workers has recovered steadily and is 11 percent higher than the pre-pandemic level seen in February 2020 (see figure 3). By contrast, the employment level of native-born workers has recovered to the same level as before the pandemic. A similar pattern is seen in the case of Hispanic workers, which is a key factor for the strength of remittance flows to the Latin America and the Caribbean region.
Figure 3. Employment Levels of Foreign and Native Born in the United States
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics.
By region, remittance flows to South Asia is expected to register the highest increase in 2024, at 11.8 percent (figure 4), driven mainly by continued strong flows to India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. Remittances to the Middle East and Africa is estimated to have increased 5.4 percent, primarily due to rebounded flows to Egypt, compared with a 14.6 percent decline in 2023.
In other regions, remittance growth to Latin America and the Caribbean is projected to slow to 5.5 percent in 2024, from 7.5 percent a year ago. Remittances to Mexico is expected to reach about $68 billion in 2024, an increase of 3 percent. Mexico receives the most remittances in the region by far and is the world’s second-largest recipient of remittances. Guatemala is the second largest recipient of remittances in the LAC region.
Besides the strong job market in the United States, remittances will continue to flow to Mexico and Guatemala in part due to the considerable number of transit migrants passing through these countries (notably from Cuba, China, Ecuador, Haiti, India, Nicaragua, and Venezuela, according to data from the US Customs, Border and Protection). Border Patrol apprehended fewer migrants at the border in November 2024 than any month since July 2020 while the number of migrants at the Southern border of Mexico seems to be increasing.
Remittances to Europe and Central Asia are also expected to increase by 3 percent, bouncing back from an 8.7 percent decline last year. Normalization of remittance flows to Central Asian countries mostly from Russia have offset the lingering weakness in flows to Ukraine. Growth in remittance flows in 2024 is estimated at 3.3 percent for East Asia and the Pacific (excluding China) and 2.4 percent for Sub-Saharan Africa.
Figure 4. Aggregate and regional growth patterns for remittance flows in 2023 & 2024