Morocco: Strengthening climate resilience to safeguard and grow coastal tourism jobs

The blue economy holds significant potential to create jobs. Across Africa, the blue economy already generates nearly 50 million jobs. This figure will grow in the coming decades, reaching a projected 78 million jobs on the continent by 2063. In addition to creating employment in existing blue sectors, such as fisheries, maritime shipping, and coastal tourism, new sectors, such as marine biotechnology and renewable energy, are emerging. If managed sustainably, the blue economy could become an economic engine that yields multiple benefits, including food security, increased jobs, better livelihoods, conservation of biodiversity, and increased climate resilience.

Morocco is actively investing in its blue economy. The government has established a blue economy program that focuses on economic development and jobs, food security, and natural resource management, with support from the World Bank’s Blue Economy Program for Results (PforR).

However, maximizing the benefits of the blue economy requires addressing the pressing impacts of climate change. Morocco is a “climate hotspot” where temperatures have increased by 0.2°C per decade on average since the 1960s—double the global average of 0.1°C per decade. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the annual mean surface temperature of the Mediterranean region is already 1.5°C warmer than pre-industrial levels. Extreme weather events such as heatwaves and droughts are becoming more frequent and intense, increasing the risk of forest fires.

Morocco’s coastline, which hosts about 80% of the country’s industries and contributes nearly 60% of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP), is particularly at risk of the effects of climate change. From 1984 to 2016, coastal erosion averaged 14 centimeters (cm) per year on the country’s Mediterranean coast and 12 cm per year on its Atlantic coast, about twice the global average. 

All of Morocco’s blue sectors need to build climate resilience to enable sustainable growth, especially coastal tourism.  

In addition to coastal erosion damaging key tourism infrastructure, changing weather conditions may also affect tourist behaviors. Studies have shown that by 2030, the Mediterranean region could be too hot for tourism due to climate change, with nearly 70% of tourists saying they would change the destination if temperatures became uncomfortably hot, and more than 80% of tourists saying they would go elsewhere in response to massive beach losses. 

A recent World Bank study examined how a climate change-driven reduction in the number of tourists arriving in the country would affect coastal tourism jobs by reducing income from accommodation, food, transport, and the purchase of souvenirs and everyday goods. This study assumed that tourist expenditure and responses are similar in Morocco to those in other countries in the same climate zone. 

The study estimated that an 8–18% reduction in tourist arrivals, induced by climate change, could lead to 14-32% losses in jobs at hotels and restaurants by 2035 (Figure 1). Other subsectors, such as arts and entertainment, transportation, and other services, would also be severely affected by reduced tourist expenditure due to climate change.

Figure 1: Job losses along the coastal tourism value chain by 2035 (percentage compared to the reference scenario).

The study findings highlight the need for Morocco’s coastal tourism sector to develop resilience, especially for micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs). Smaller companies are more likely to be forced out of business due to a lack of financial capacity to cope with shocks. 

Building such resilience involves preparing buildings for tourist accommodation to better withstand heat and pivoting current coastal tourism offerings towards a more sustainable and resilient models. Our World Bank study offers a series of recommendations that could support the government of Morocco in implementing its ambitious Tourism Strategic Roadmap 2023–2026, which cover investments, policy and institutional frameworks, developing ecotourism, and using traditional building materials and cooling techniques. 

The Government of Morocco has already started taking measures to build climate resilience, including transforming coastal tourism MSMEs under the World Bank-supported Blue Economy PforR . In Agadir, for example, the government supported a surfing school by installing solar panels to reduce its carbon emissions while diversifying its product offerings. The PforR also supports the government’s efforts to restore coastal forests and stabilize coastal dunes to protect the coastline. These local actions are laying the foundations for more resilient coastal tourism while safeguarding jobs in the face of intensifying climate change. 

This study was funded by PROBLUE, a multidonor trust fund housed at the World Bank that supports the development of integrated, sustainable, and healthy marine and coastal resources.

Download the note (English with executive summaries in English, French, and Arabic).