On December 17, 2024, a magnitude 7.3 earthquake struck Vanuatu, primarily affecting its capital, Port Vila, and Shefa Province. It caused extensive damage to buildings and infrastructure, with direct economic losses to physical assets estimated at $197 million—equivalent to 17 percent of the country’s GDP. Beyond the economic toll, the earthquake profoundly affected people’s well-being and livelihoods, killing 14 people; injuring 265; temporarily displacing more than 1,000; and severely disrupting essential services, markets, and local businesses.
Revealing Immediate Needs in Real Time
Beneath the headlines, a quiet data revolution was underway, as the World Bank, in collaboration with the Vanuatu Bureau of Statistics and Digicel Vanuatu, captured the real-time human impacts of this disaster through monthly mobile phone surveys. Initiated in 2023, the surveys reached hundreds of households, offering timely insights from affected communities on disruptions in employment, food security, market access, and housing.
The data were sobering. About 55 percent of Shefa households reported disruptions in their access to markets immediately after the earthquake. As a result, the share of the population suffering from food insecurity rose from 29 percent in December 2024 to 48 percent in January 2025 in Shefa. The homes of one in five households in Shefa were severely damaged. The surveys also revealed significant effects on employment, with the proportion of working adults in Shefa Province dropping from 65 percent to 56 percent.
But the surveys also highlighted remarkable resilience. The impact of the earthquake on food security appears to have been temporary: Data for March 2025 reveal a return to pre-earthquake levels (Figure 1). And despite the employment shocks, only 2 percent of households in Shefa reported lower than usual income in March. Disruptions to access to utilities and health services also turned out to be short-lived.
Figure 1: Share of population that is food insecure, November 2024–February/March 2025
Smart, Simple, and Scalable: A Methodology Tailored for the Pacific
Monthly panel mobile surveys offer two powerful advantages in disaster response: speed and relevance. This cost-effective, real-time monitoring tool is well suited for Pacific Island countries that face chronic data shortages and frequent natural disasters, as the experience during the volcanic eruption in Tonga shows. Unlike traditional disaster assessments, which may take months to implement, phone surveys provide rapid feedback, allowing humanitarian agencies and governments to quickly prioritize assistance.
The surveys leverage widespread mobile coverage to reach households even in remote regions. The 20-minute surveys are conducted monthly, ensuring timely and consistent monitoring. The approach has been particularly effective in Vanuatu, which is prone to frequent natural disasters and has very limited data-collection capacity.
Timely, accurate data can save lives and protect livelihoods. For countries that regularly face natural hazards, this proactive approach can mean the difference between rapid recovery and prolonged hardship. Supported by the Pacific Observatory program—a World Bank initiative that provides innovative solutions and data sources to complement existing survey data and analysis—through the Australia and New Zealand Trust Fund, the approach is now expanding across other disaster-prone Pacific countries, including Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands, Tonga, and Fiji.
Join the Conversation