Four strategies to enhance climate resilience in Western Balkan cities

Cities in the Western Balkans are no strangers to great upheavals. They have navigated wars, political transformations, and societal shifts, and their ability to endure has emerged as a defining characteristic.

And now these urban centers must increasingly grapple with climate change.

How is a changing climate impacting cities in the Western Balkans, and vice versa? And what can be done? A new World Bank report, Reshaping Cities, provides some answers.  

Western Balkan cities are shrinking, and sprawling

Only eight of the forty-three cities in the Western Balkans have a population over 200,000. While population growth is occurring in larger cities, smaller ones have seen a decline. Worryingly, much of this decrease is in the working-age population. And yet, these cities continue to expand geographically, producing urban sprawl, which, in turn, raises the costs of service provision and is associated with worse environmental outcomes.

Figure #1: Growth of population versus Growth of built-up area

Cities are getting hotter, dryer...and wetter, and urban emissions are worsening

The Western Balkans are experiencing more frequent and severe storms, floods, landslides, wildfires, droughts, and heat waves, putting lives, homes, and businesses at risk. Urban areas—where more than half the region’s population resides—are particularly impacted by these challenges. In October this year, central and southern Bosnia and Herzegovina experienced torrential rains and landslides that caused widespread devastation in the country, destroying homes, roads, bridges, and other infrastructure. The most affected regions were towns such as Donja Jablanica, Konjic, Kiseljak, Fojnica, and Kresevo, among others. Water supply to urban areas was also affected owing to severe droughts in the region. Because of the large share of employment in weather and climate-related sectors—agriculture, forestry, and tourism—climate is exacerbating existing vulnerabilities. 

Cities in the Western Balkans are also far more polluted compared to their European counterparts, with regards to PM2.5 and CH4 emissions. And owing to their heavy reliance on fossil fuels for energy, their carbon emissions remain high. 

Figure #2: Frequency and intensity of extreme heat events is on the rise

So, what can be done?

Yes, there are a myriad challenges. But there are also opportunities.

1. How to become greener?  Compact cities are better at curbing emissions and limiting air pollution. Previously limiting and poorly enforced planning systems can be revised to be more proactive: zoning and land-use regulations can reduce urban sprawl, while also promoting energy-efficient, mixed-use, high-density development. Türkiye’s two for one approach demonstrates how others can combine energy efficiency and lifesaving earthquake resilience while promoting urban redevelopment.
2. How to boost resilience? Nature-based solutions offer the possibility for cities to retrofit urban areas to provide for current needs and facilitate adaptation. Limiting unplanned growth in risk-prone areas is urgent and can be tackled quickly. Capacity should be enhanced for both emergency preparedness and response. Preparedness can pay off quickly. In Romania, preparedness investments pay for themselves, multifold: the Romania Cat DDO has been triggered twice for a total of EUR 400 million, first to scale up preparedness, and then for disaster response. Serbia followed, making EUR 20 million available.
3. How to better inclusiveness? Cities bring opportunities for residents, but in the absence of good policy, these may not be distributed equally. The role for policy is clear, but the approach to delivery is equally important. The success of community-driven approaches reveals that co-designing a shared vision can help to deliver results for local priorities. For instance, Colombian cities have shaped the enabling environment to allow some of the most vulnerable and excluded groups to contribute more productively, thus generating more opportunities for all .
4. And finally, how to become more competitive? In a context of urban decline, increasing city competitiveness is a priority for jobs and growth. Investments in urban infrastructure can be an engine for growth. This could be through support for growth sectors, such as revitalizing tourism in Albania, or investing in lagging, often secondary cities, to spur productivity and jobs.

Cities in the Western Balkans will be increasingly hard hit by climate change. Reshaping cities is an opportunity—to become greener, more resilient, more inclusive, and more competitive, in the face of this global threat.