A school is like a living organism. To thrive, it must be healthy and prepared to deal with floods, heatwaves, or wildfires. For example, a school that suffers from these phenomena and has inadequate infrastructure may struggle to motivate educators and students to be present and take care of the space.
The frequency and intensity of extreme climate events have increased by 50% over the past three decades. In 2024, at least 242 million students in 85 countries had their studies disrupted due to these events. Such interruptions have serious consequences. It is estimated that learning losses could result in up to 1.5 fewer years of schooling in the most affected regions.
Due to the floods in Rio Grande do Sul in 2024, it is estimated that more than one million students missed classes. Professor Rosane Kjellin, from Antônio Giúdice school, recalls how it was raining that April 29, 2024, and the forecasts were not good for the following days. They had to suspend classes on the 30th due to the flooding of the school's street and its surroundings.
A set of new studies, developed in partnership between the World Bank, the Government of Japan, and the State Departments of Education of Rio Grande do Sul and Mato Grosso, presents concrete paths to address this challenge.
How to identify the most vulnerable schools across the national territory?
First, we developed an index that measures whether schools are sustainable, resilient, inclusive, and focused on learning, aiming to assess the conditions for creating school environments capable of promoting adequate learning and facing environmental and social challenges. About 12,000 schools are in areas vulnerable to severe droughts or significant temperature increases. Among them, nearly 2,500 fall well below the index standard, further compromising their ability to adapt to new climate realities.
The index analysis reveals that southern and southeastern states, such as Santa Catarina and Rio de Janeiro, score better, reflecting years of greater investment in infrastructure. In contrast, northern and northeastern states, such as Pará and Maranhão, face historical challenges of underfunding. Additionally, municipal schools, especially rural ones, show significantly lower scores compared to state schools. These schools often lack basic resources such as potable water and teaching materials, undermining both climate resilience and learning quality.
Climate Risk Mapping in Rio Grande do Sul and Mato Grosso
The Risk Mapping in Rio Grande do Sul analyzed 8,629 historical disaster records from Civil Defense between 1991 and 2023 and identified that natural disasters, such as windstorms, hailstorms, and floods, have intensified, impacting thousands of schools and causing educational disruptions and significant economic losses. The 2024 floods, which led to the closure of 1,148 schools, resulted in losses of around 3.04 billion reais and had a significant impact on learning, were especially analyzed due to their extensive scope.
Secretary of Education Raquel Teixeira commented that she never imagined experiencing anything like it. During the Covid-19 pandemic, the students were not at school, but she knew where they were: at home. In the flood, they were not at school, and she did not know where they were. She recalls how hundreds of her students 'disappeared.' They abandoned their homes, which were invaded and destroyed, and went to shelters, making the classic Active Search instruments incapable of locating them. They had to cross-reference the refugee data with our students' data to find out where they were.
For Raquel, the impact of an extreme climatic event is challenging because it is different in every place, and the mitigation and adaptation actions, both in learning and in emotional and mental aspects, require personalized measures. That is why, she highlighted, they are working on contingency plans for each school, developed with the community, so that everyone knows how to act before, during, and after the extreme events.
The study classified the risk of 730 schools in regions most susceptible to these two types of disasters, using indicators based on variables such as location, infrastructure, and exposure to extreme climate events. Municipalities like Canoas, Rio Grande, and Santa Maria were identified as particularly vulnerable.
The rapid diagnostic methodology (study still ongoing) was also applied to schools in Rio Grande do Sul in response to the devastating impacts of the 2024 floods, which affected 476 cities, displaced over half a million people, and caused 183 deaths. The study aimed to assist the State Department of Education (SEDUC-RS) in identifying vulnerable schools and proposing practical solutions to enhance their preparedness for climate change. A total of 9,994 schools were mapped, with 730 prioritized by SEDUC and 99 evaluated in detail, with contingency plans being developed for 97 of them.
The results show that many schools face significant risks. For example, 73 schools have high exposure to river floods and 438 are in areas with extreme temperatures. Additionally, 2,020 schools are in zones with high drought risk and 196 in areas susceptible to landslides. The analysis also revealed a lack of essential structural data, such as building conditions and materials used, hindering effective action planning.
The Risk Assessment of Schools in Mato Grosso shows varied risks, including floods, windstorms, heatwaves, and forest fires. The survey analyzed 1,484 occurrences between 1991 and 2022 recorded by Civil Defense. Floods and flash floods represent 55% of events in the state, while forest fires, droughts, and heatwaves account for 31%. Windstorms, although less frequent, caused 41% of damage to school units.
Based on a detailed analysis of 75 vulnerable state schools, the importance of improvements in stormwater drainage and structural roof resistance was verified.
The study also identified the seasonality of major risks to assist in planning mitigation measures: intense rains and flash floods concentrate between December and April, windstorms between September and November, and forest fires around September. Finally, the study categorized schools into three priority levels based on factors such as the number of enrolled students and the history of climate-related damage.
How to enhance school resilience
In partnership with the Department of Education of Rio Grande do Sul, Guidelines for Incorporating Preparation, Monitoring, and Alert Actions in School Environments were developed to ensure safe learning environments against climate events. The proposed process has four main steps:
- Map climate event risks of schools and learning environment conditions
- Combine risks with school infrastructure conditions to prioritize improvement investments
- Based on prioritization, carry out interventions to enhance resilience and learning environments
- Develop contingency plans and conduct training involving all school communities in continuous engagement for improvement
Furthermore, the Department of Education of Mato Grosso is developing, with technical support from the World Bank, a School Infrastructure Maintenance Management System (ongoing study) aimed at ensuring that public schools shift from a reactive maintenance approach to preventive and predictive management.
To achieve this, it is recommended to create a detailed inventory of school assets, use a computerized system to record and monitor maintenance, adopt performance indicators to assess costs, risks, and efficiency, and integrate data on climate risks and sustainability.
For Brazilian schools to be truly healthy, they must receive continuous care and consistent investments — both in their physical infrastructure and in the teams that keep them alive and functional. The studies developed with World Bank support offer practical and accessible guidance for education managers and departments to strengthen these pillars.
By putting these recommendations into practice, we will build a more resilient educational future to the impacts of climate change, inclusive and effective in promoting learning.
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