Addressing food insecurity in the Middle East and North Africa: innovations in data monitoring

Food insecurity remains a critical issue affecting millions of people across the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan (MENAAP). The region faces a wide range of food security challenges—from acute conflict-related humanitarian crises in some areas to affordability concerns in others, and from high levels of economic prosperity to accompanying nutritional deficits. The food system experiences frequent shocks and extreme events, including droughts that exacerbate severe water scarcity and economic crises with high inflation on key staples. While some MENAAP countries are major exporters of agricultural and energy products, others rely almost entirely on imports, creating a complex web of interdependencies and systemic vulnerabilities across this dynamic region. 

Data challenges in a complex landscape

Despite the growing need for timely data to inform decision-making, MENAAP faces significant challenges in food security monitoring. The region's food insecurity landscape, like its data ecosystem, mirrors the global picture—a patchwork of different indicators measured at different times using different systems with little overlap. The result is a fragmented understanding of the food insecurity challenge, making regional coordination difficult at best, or impossible in the worst cases. 

Key data sources such as child mortality and nutrition surveys remain outdated or unavailable for more than a decade in some countries. The FAO's Food Insecurity Experience Scale (FIES), a widely used benchmark, exhibits major gaps, particularly in low-income countries where food insecurity is most prevalent. In 2022, the World Bank launched the World Food Security Outlook (WFSO) database in response to this need. 

Food crises and emergencies are tracked by the Integrated Phase Classification (IPC), which has limited coverage in the region. Recent disruptions to vital monitoring systems, such as FEWSNET, have further eroded early warning capabilities. These data limitations create serious barriers to effective intervention, leaving policymakers without the insights needed for timely and targeted responses. 

The problem is especially acute in MENAAP because food insecurity consequences quickly spill across borders through trade dynamics, refugee flows, and economic pressures. Coordinated responses require comparable data—shared benchmarks that can inform action across borders while properly representing regional similarities and differences. Without a clear and consistent picture of food insecurity's scale, severity, and nature throughout the region, opportunities for cooperation are missed and crises risk escalation. 

Recognizing this challenge, the teams working on the World Bank's forthcoming MENAAP flagship report on food and nutrition security (2026) is introducing new indicators to further expand the WFSO dataset. These are designed to improve cross-country comparability and equip policymakers with the information needed for proactive, aligned, and evidence-based decision-making. 

Introducing new indicators to the WFSO 

To strengthen food security monitoring and comparability across the region, the WFSO now incorporates two additional innovative indicators.  

1. Short-Term Caloric Needs Financing Variable

Previously, the World Bank measured short-term caloric needs by estimating the annual cost of safety nets necessary to meet 25% of minimum dietary energy requirements for severely food-insecure populations, following methods first used in IDA-19. This indicator has now been developed further to express these costs as a share of country GDP. Created in collaboration with the Global Alliance for Food Security (GAFS) dashboard team, this revised indicator highlights significant disparities. For example, large economies possess the fiscal capacity to manage extensive safety nets despite housing substantial food-insecure populations. Conversely, countries facing economic turmoil struggle to maintain consistent support, heightening their vulnerability to deeper crises. Knowing when the economic burden of providing basic safety nets reaches critical levels helps determine when policy must shift from internal goals to securing external aid. Globally, this value averages around one-tenth of a percent, but in low-income countries it rises to 4%. 

You can use this widget to explore the new data by selecting different indicators and countries.

2. IPC-Compatible Estimates (Levels IPC3+ and IPC4+)

The WFSO now includes IPC-compatible outputs that serve as proxy IPC phases for countries and timeframes where traditional IPC data is unavailable. These estimates are generated through a non-linear beta regression model that bridges machine learning and statistical inference. 

The implementation extends the core WFSO framework, which employs the Cubist algorithm—a decision-tree-based ensemble model with local linear approximations. The beta regression applies an additional non-linear transformation at the final output stage to map FIES-scale predictions onto the standardized IPC scale, maintaining all assumptions of the original model while enhancing the interpretation of predictions. In practical terms, the underlying prediction model remains identical to the one producing the main prevalence rates in the WFSO, with only a final re-scaling step to translate these rates onto an IPC-compatible scale. 

Importantly, this estimate should be interpreted as tracking people living in areas affected by IPC 3 or IPC 4, not as a summation of households in these phases. This matches the definition used by IDA's Crisis Response Window to determine eligibility for Early Response Financing and is rooted in a prevention framework that aims for early responses targeting people before they reach an irreversible state of crisis. 

This approach transforms predictions that are approximately 95%-98% accurate on the FIES scale to approximately 70% accuracy (R²) on the IPC scale. The IPC-compatible output provides 3-year moving averages that complement traditional IPC assessments with longer-term perspectives, enabling projections six years out or back-casting to pre-IPC periods. This creates the first globally comprehensive estimate on the IPC scale and identifies food crisis hotspots expected to persist through 2030. 

You can use this widget to explore the new data across countries by selecting different time periods.

Advancing action with better data

The upcoming MENAAP flagship report on food and nutrition security, set for Spring 2026, will provide deeper analysis and policy recommendations to guide regional decision-makers, including detailed methodological notes. Meanwhile, the global community is encouraged to explore and use the available data now. 

These innovative tools are designed to help countries worldwide assess food security conditions more accurately, allocate resources more efficiently, and coordinate cross-border interventions. By providing timely and comparable data, they empower governments and international partners to respond proactively to emerging crises and build long-term resilience. 

Further Reading

1. Why Better Food Security Data Matters 
   Learn more about the role of better data systems in combating hunger: Five Alarming Stats on Global Hunger (blog)

1. From Data to Preparedness 
   Watch how these initiatives support early action and planning: Preparedness Plans (YouTube)  

1. Our Latest Work on Food Security Data 
   Watch an overview of our recent data innovations: Reshaping Food Security Analytics (YouTube)

The complete WFSO database and detailed methodology are available at the World Bank's Microdata Library. https://doi.org/10.48529/ev5a-ke69

This work was carried out with the support from Food Systems 2030.