Data-driven nutrition security: How trade shapes resilience

Only one country is fully self-sufficient in all major food groups, while over a third can meet requirements for just two or fewer (Rundgren 2025). Most countries cannot meet dietary recommendations for staples, legumes, or fruits through domestic production alone, and only one in four countries produce enough vegetables for a healthy diet (Stehl et al.).

Imports therefore play a critical role in filling these gaps, but relying on only a few sources makes countries vulnerable to disruptions that can affect access to nutritious foods. A diversified import portfolio acts as a buffer, helping countries maintain stable access to healthy diets under shifting global conditions.

Trade data reveals these vulnerabilities—and opportunities.

What the data show

Using 2023 trade data, we measured import diversification across food groups in each country by the Shannon Index, which captures both the number of import partners and how evenly imports are distributed among them. To reflect food available for domestic consumption, we used net imports (imports minus exports) for each food item.

Higher-income countries import from more diverse partners

Diversification rises with income. Higher-income countries show higher Shannon Index values, meaning they import from a broader set of suppliers and rely on them more evenly. This cushions the impact of global shocks. By contrast, many low-income countries depend on a small number of partners, especially for nutrient-rich foods like pulses, fruits, and vegetables. Animal-source foods display the highest diversification overall.

^{Source: Authors’ calculations using 2023 bilateral trade data WITS.
Note: Shannon Index values reflect diversification of net imports (imports minus exports) for each food group. Each bubble represents a country, with bubble size proportional to total net import volume (metric tons) for that food group. The smooth curve represents a LOESS fit of the Shannon Index on log GNI per capita (span = 0.8), illustrating how import diversification generally increases with income.}

Fragile and conflict-affected countries face steep risks

Among fragile and conflict-affected (FCS) countries, diversification varies widely — but is particularly low for fruits and vegetables, two groups essential for nutrition and often among the most expensive globally (Bai et al.). Shannon Index values for these categories cluster at the lower end, meaning many FCS countries depend heavily on just one or two suppliers. Countries such as Ethiopia and Madagascar appear consistently at the low diversification end across multiple food groups.

^{Source: Authors’ calculations using 2023 bilateral trade data WITS.
Note: Sample includes all countries classified as Fragile and Conflict-Affected Situations (FCS) in FY2026.}

Country examples: How trade concentration threatens nutrition

• Niger: Domestic production provides less than one-third of the fruit needed for a healthy diet. Fruit imports are highly concentrated: dates account for most of the imported fruit supply, with Algeria alone making up 88% of all fruits imported by weight.

^{Source: Authors’ calculations using 2023 bilateral trade data WITS.}

The role of WITS

Ever wondered where these trade numbers come from? That’s where World Integrated Trade Solution (WITS) steps in. Built in partnership by several international agencies, WITS is the go-to toolkit for anyone who wants to dig into what countries buy, sell, and swap. It offers up-to-date stats on imports, exports, tariffs, and more — helping researchers and policymakers see the big picture.

Why it matters — and what you can do

Trade data offers critical insights into the resilience of national nutrition supply. When countries depend on only a few suppliers for nutritious foods, even small disruptions can affect availability, affordability, and ultimately nutrition security. By using harmonized and timely data from platforms such as WITS, together with a simple diversification metric like the Shannon Index, policymakers and analysts can:

• Identify where import dependence is high.
• Broaden sourcing and strengthen trade corridors.
• Complement imports with domestic production.

If you’re a policymaker, researcher, or donor, start using trade data today to build nutrition resilience. Explore WITS and discover where your country’s diet is most exposed — and how to make it stronger.